|
...ted one of the Chancellor’s panel of economic forecasters, the so-called “Wise Men”. He studied Economics at Oxford, and began his career in the academic world as a lecturer in Economics at St Anne’s College, Oxford.
Roger has written many articles on monetary economics and is joint author of the book, “Theory of Money”, author of “Index-Linked Gilts” and of the best-seller “The Death of Inflation”, which was published in April 1996 and has subsequently been translated into nine languages. Originally regarded as extreme, this book is now widely recognised as prophetic. His latest book, published in 2003, “Money for Nothing – Real Wealth, Financial Fantasies and the Economy of the Future”, has been widely acclaimed and has recently appeared in Japanese, German, Italian and Korean translations. Roger is a frequent performer at conferences and business gatherings around the world.
He is a regular columnist for The Daily Telegraph and also appears frequently on national television and radio. Larry Elliott, economics editor of The Guardian, recently wrote: “It seems strange that no place has yet been found on the MPC for Roger Bootle, one of the country’s leading monetary economists.”
Roger has a long and distinguished record of successful forecasting of major events and market movements, often in contrast to the prevailing orthodoxy of the time, including:
• Forecasting the collapse of the dotcom boom.
• Seeing that the UK would be forced out of the ERM in 1992 and, in contrast to the official Treasury line and the views of most forecasters, predicting that inflation and interest rates would fall.
• Forecasting that rising inflation would prompt UK interest rates to be raised to 15% in 1989.
• Realising that during the “hard monetarist” phase in 1979-81, inflation was going to fall sharply despite the fact the broad money supply was growing rapidly.
• And most famously, predicting as early as October 1990, that the financial climate in Europe and North America would be transformed by sustained low inflation – and maintaining this view even though many people in the market dismissed “The Death of Inflation” as a joke.
Testimonials
• “Roger was absolutely fantastic, his presentation was inspiring, very interesting and he managed to present it in a very entertaining way.” Reuters Sales Conference, Cairo
• Scores for content and presentation both a maximum 5/5. (Convention average 3.8/5 and 3.7/5 respectively.) The Actuarial Profession LIFE Convention, Edinburgh
Publications
Real Wealth, Financial Fantasies and The Economy of The Future
Business Bestseller, Winner of the Independent Book Publishers’ Award, and translated into Japanese, German, Italian and Korean
In this fascinating and far-reaching book, thoroughly revised and updated and now including a new concluding chapter, Roger Bootle shows how the perils of slump, deflation and protectionism can be negotiated to enable us to transform our lives in the economy of the future. The world is at a critical juncture, poised between a surge in wealth and a descent into outright recession. At the heart of this crisis is the gap between real and illusory wealth.
Over the last decade, we have been caught up in a gigantic illusion of wealth, generated by soaring share and house prices as investors sought to condense the productive potential of the infinite future into instant capital value – money for nothing.
The bursting of the equity bubble left wreckage strewn across the financial system, and there is now a real danger of the housing market collapsing, pension schemes failing – and whole economies deflating, as Japan already demonstrates. It is now widely believed that the deflationary threat has passed and that central banks are bound to raise interest rates. But in today’s world the deflationary danger is ever-present and central banks must be prepared to cut interest rates vigorously to head it off. Meanwhile, there is a continuing danger that more and more countries resort to shutting out foreign goods and services from their markets. Such a lurch into protectionism would cause falling wealth and unemployment, just as it did in the 1930s.
Yet we face the threat of a deflationary slump at just the time that we stand on the brink of the greatest increase in prosperity in our history. In the bubble years the markets got ahead of the economics. Now the economics are about to get ahead of the markets.
The new importance of the human factor in the global economy will mean the acceleration of knowledge – and hence technological progress; the opening of the road to good governance which underpins prosperity for all countries, including those in the Middle East and Africa currently written off by the world; and an enriching explosion of trade with developing countries, like China and India. The interaction between these forces opens up an era of true globalisation – with developed countries enjoying a rise in the rate of economic growth to historically unprecedented levels as well as poorer countries coming within prosperity’s embrace. This is “The Wealth Spiral”. While it may not be so quick or spectacular as stockmarket booms, it is real wealth rather than financial fantasy.
In the economy of the future, things will diminish in importance, and the products of the human mind, ranging from scientific discoveries and new designs to human relationships, will increase. This will be an age not just of mass affluence, but also of human values and choices, dominated by intangibles – money for nothing
The Death of Inflation
A best-seller and was subsequently translated into nine languages. Initially dismissed as extreme, The Death of Inflation is now widely recognised as prophetic
|
|
- The Euro and the Future of European Business
- The World Economy
- European Monetary Policy
- Inflation and the Economy
|