Graeme Leach
Boards are making capital decisions in an economy that no longer behaves like the one their playbooks were written for. Inflation, interest rates, demographic drag, and geopolitical fracture are now correlated risks, not separate slides. Leaders need a macro view that connects them, and a forecaster willing to say what is likely, not just what is possible.
Graeme Leach is a UK macroeconomist who translates global economic and geopolitical signals into decisions a board can act on, drawing on more than two decades as chief economist to UK business.
Full Profile
Why organisations work with Graeme Leach
- A working forecaster, not a commentator. Two decades as Chief Economist at the Institute of Directors and earlier at the Henley Centre for Forecasting give him a record of calling macro turning points for business audiences before they show up in headlines.
- One of the few UK economists who connects monetary policy, geopolitics, and long-horizon demographics in a single argument. His “The RACE” keynote forces leadership teams to think about technology adoption and demographic decline as the same strategic problem.
- A senior policy voice, not just a market voice. Membership of the IEA Shadow Monetary Policy Committee and the Legatum Institute senior fellowship put him inside the UK debate on interest rates, productivity, and prosperity, which matters to boards making capital allocation calls.
- Built for serious audiences. Nearly 1,000 keynotes in 25 countries, including Royal Albert Hall scale, with a reputation for making complex macro intelligible to non-economists in the room.
Biography highlights
- CEO and Chief Economist, macronomics, a macroeconomic, geopolitical and future megatrends research consultancy founded in 2016.
- Chief Economist and Director of Policy, Institute of Directors, 1997 to 2014, and a main board director.
- Senior Fellow, Legatum Institute, and former Director of Economics and Prosperity Studies.
- Member, IEA Shadow Monetary Policy Committee. Weekly columnist, City AM.
- Former Chief UK and International Economist, The Henley Centre for Forecasting.
- Regular contributor on BBC News, Sky News, BBC Radio 4 Today and World at One. Almost 1,000 keynotes delivered across 25 countries.
Biography
The macroeconomic backdrop business leaders operate against has stopped being a single curve and become a set of intersecting ones. Interest rates, inflation, geopolitical risk, demographic decline, and the productivity story behind AI now move together. Boards need a forecaster who can read them as one system.
That is the job Graeme Leach has done for UK business for more than two decades. As Chief Economist and Director of Policy at the Institute of Directors from 1997 to 2014, he was the macroeconomic voice for thousands of UK directors through the dotcom cycle, the financial crisis, and the early years of the post-2008 recovery. Before that he was Chief UK and International Economist at the Henley Centre for Forecasting, one of the original commercial forecasting houses in London.
In 2016 he founded macronomics, where he advises corporate and institutional clients on global outlook, geopolitical risk, and the megatrends that sit underneath them. The work is reinforced by a Senior Fellowship at the Legatum Institute, a seat on the IEA Shadow Monetary Policy Committee, and a weekly City AM column, giving him a continuous read on UK monetary policy and prosperity debates.
His signature keynote, “The RACE for economic supremacy in the 21st century”, argues that the advanced economies are racing to capture the productivity gains of technology before demographic decline erodes growth. It is the kind of argument that connects what a CFO sees on the rate curve to what a CHRO sees in the workforce data. Across nearly 1,000 engagements in 25 countries, the reputation is consistent: he makes the complicated sound simple without making it sound small.
Key speaking topics
- Global economic outlook
- UK economic outlook and monetary policy
- Geopolitical risk
- Demographic change and productivity
- Future megatrends
- Brexit and UK political economy
- Long-run scenarios for the world economy
Ideal for
- Board and ExCo strategy offsites setting capital allocation under macro uncertainty
- CFO and treasury audiences planning against rate, inflation, and currency cycles
- Industry conferences and corporate client events needing a senior macro voice
- After-dinner and keynote slots where a serious economist must hold a non-specialist room
Audience outcomes
- A coherent reading of the global and UK macro picture, with named risks rather than a checklist
- A clear view of how demography, technology, and geopolitics interact over a 10 to 20 year horizon
- A grounded position on UK interest rates, inflation, and growth from inside the policy debate
- Specific implications for capital allocation, workforce planning, and international exposure
Talks
A long-horizon argument that the advanced economies are racing to capture the gains of technology before demographic decline erodes them.
Key takeaways:
- Why the productivity payoff from AI and automation is the central economic question of the next two decades
- How demographic decline reshapes growth, fiscal sustainability, and capital returns in the advanced economies
- What the interaction of technology and demography means for corporate strategy and investment
A working forecaster’s read on the macro picture, covering growth, inflation, interest rates, and the geopolitical risks that move them.
Key takeaways:
- A clear view of the near-term direction for UK and global growth
- The policy debate on inflation and interest rates from inside the IEA Shadow Monetary Policy Committee
- The geopolitical and political-economy risks most likely to disrupt the base case