Marcelo Carvalho
Boards and investment committees are being asked to make capital decisions inside a global economy that no longer behaves the way it did for thirty years. Trade is fragmenting, inflation paths are diverging across regions, emerging markets are pricing in political risk that used to be assumed away, and monetary policy is being run with one eye on geopolitics. The question executives keep returning to is the same: which of these shifts are noise, and which are structural enough to rewrite the operating assumptions behind a five-year plan.
Marcelo Carvalho is a global macroeconomist and Senior Research Associate at ODI Global, formerly Global Head of Economics at BNP Paribas, who helps boards, investors and financial institutions read shifting monetary policy, emerging-market risk and geopolitical fragmentation as inputs to capital decisions.
Full Profile
Why organisations work with Marcelo Carvalho
- He has run a global economics function at a major European universal bank, which means his read on rates, currencies and country risk is the same view senior fund managers and corporate treasurers are paying for.
- He has been Chief Economist for Brazil at three global investment banks (J.P. Morgan, Morgan Stanley, Bank of America), giving him a depth on Latin America and emerging markets that very few generalist macro speakers can match.
- He bridges markets and policy: two years at the IMF, two decades on the sell side, now a Senior Research Associate at ODI Global, the London-based development and policy think tank. He briefs CFOs and finance ministers with equal fluency.
- He has been recognised repeatedly by Institutional Investor and Latin Finance for Brazil macro coverage, signalling that his calls have been judged credible by the buy-side audience that uses his research commercially.
- He briefs in English, Spanish and Portuguese, which matters for organisations whose leadership team or investor base sits across the Americas and Europe.
Biography highlights
- Senior Research Associate, ODI Global, London
- Former Global Head of Economics at BNP Paribas, after leading the bank’s Global Emerging Markets Research and Latin America Research desks
- Former Chief Economist for Brazil at J.P. Morgan, Morgan Stanley and Bank of America
- Two years as an economist at the International Monetary Fund
- PhD in Economics, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign; MSc and BA in Economics, University of Sao Paulo
- Multiple Institutional Investor and Latin Finance awards for Brazil macro research; regular contributor to Bloomberg, CNBC, Reuters, Financial Times, The Economist and Wall Street Journal
Biography
The macro environment that institutional investors and corporate boards built their playbooks around between 1990 and 2020 is no longer the environment they are operating in. Trade is fragmenting, monetary policy is diverging across the major blocs, and emerging markets are once again a source of structural opportunity and structural risk at the same time. Reading that map well is now a board-level skill, not a back-office function.
That is the territory Marcelo Carvalho has worked in for three decades, now as Senior Research Associate at ODI Global, the London-based development and policy think tank where he contributes to its macroeconomic research series. He was previously Global Head of Economics at BNP Paribas in London, leading the bank’s economics function across developed and emerging markets, having earlier run its Global Emerging Markets Research and Latin America Research desks from Sao Paulo.
His earlier career sits squarely on the trading floor of global investment banking. He was Chief Economist for Brazil at J.P. Morgan, Morgan Stanley and Bank of America, the kind of seat where the call has to be defensible to portfolio managers within the hour. Two years as an economist at the IMF before joining BNP Paribas in 2010 give him a public-sector perspective that most sell-side economists do not have.
He holds a PhD in Economics from the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign and Masters and Bachelor degrees from the University of Sao Paulo. His research on Brazil has been recognised in successive Institutional Investor and Latin Finance polls. He briefs boards and investor audiences in English, Spanish and Portuguese, and is a regular voice on Bloomberg, CNBC, Reuters, Financial Times, The Economist and the Wall Street Journal.
Key speaking topics
- Global macroeconomic outlook
- Geopolitics and global markets
- Emerging markets strategy
- Latin America macroeconomics
- Monetary policy and inflation
- Trade policy and supply-chain fragmentation
- Currency dynamics and capital flows
Ideal for
- Boards and investment committees setting medium-term capital allocation against a shifting macro backdrop
- CFOs, treasurers and CIOs at corporates and asset managers with exposure to emerging markets or currency risk
- Banking, insurance and financial services leadership teams briefing clients on global outlook
- Policy forums, sovereign investor conferences and economic summits with a Latin America or emerging-markets agenda
Audience outcomes
- A clearer read on which macro shifts are cyclical noise and which are structural enough to change planning assumptions
- A working view of where rates, inflation and currencies are likely to diverge across major economies and what that means for cross-border decisions
- A specific assessment of emerging market risk and opportunity, with Brazil and wider Latin America treated in detail rather than as a sidebar
- An understanding of how trade policy, supply-chain fragmentation and political risk are being repriced by global investors
- Macroeconomic content delivered as a narrative a leadership audience can repeat back to its own board, not a research deck
Talks
A read on where the global economy is heading and how political risk is now embedded in the macro picture rather than separate from it.
Key takeaways:
- The major divergences between US, European and emerging-market policy paths and what they mean for capital flows
- How geopolitical fragmentation is changing the assumptions behind growth, inflation and rates
- A working framework for which macro signals matter most to a board’s planning cycle
An assessment of how a second Trump administration’s trade, tariff and foreign policy choices feed through to the global economy and to corporate decisions.
Key takeaways:
- The likely transmission channels from US policy shifts into trade, currencies and emerging markets
- Sectors and regions most exposed to tariff and policy risk
- How investors are repricing political risk across the developed and emerging worlds
A practical look at how trade policy is rewiring global supply chains and where that leaves firms with cross-border exposure.
Key takeaways:
- The structural drivers behind reshoring, friend-shoring and export controls
- Which regions stand to gain and lose as production footprints shift
- The inflation and margin implications of a less integrated global trading system
A grounded view of emerging-market risk and opportunity for investors and corporates with capital deployed across Latin America, Asia and the wider EM universe.
Key takeaways:
- The country-level fundamentals that separate structural opportunities from value traps
- How currency, rates and political cycles interact in the current EM environment
- A specific perspective on Brazil and Latin America from an economist who has covered the region for three decades
A view of Europe’s economic position from the seat of a major European bank, with the focus on what corporate and investor audiences can do about it.
Key takeaways:
- Where Europe’s growth, inflation and competitiveness picture is heading next
- The exposure of European business to US policy shifts and to a fragmenting trading system
- The strategic choices facing European leadership teams operating in a slower, more contested macro environment
Videos
Testimonials
Fees
| EUR | GBP | USD | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home Country | Under €12000 | Under £10,000 | Under $15000 |
| Asia Pacific | Under €12000 | Under £10,000 | Under $15000 |
| Europe | Under €12000 | Under £10,000 | Under $15000 |
| Middle East & Africa | Under €12000 | Under £10,000 | Under $15000 |
| South America | Under €12000 | Under £10,000 | Under $15000 |
| United Kingdom | Under €12000 | Under £10,000 | Under $15000 |
| US East Coast | Under €12000 | Under £10,000 | Under $15000 |
| US West Coast | Under €12000 | Under £10,000 | Under $15000 |
| Virtual | Under €12000 | Under £10,000 | Under $15000 |