Planificación de escenarios y previsión estratégica speakers
Oradores que ayudan a las organizaciones a anticipar la incertidumbre, validar supuestos y planificar múltiples futuros
Speakers Associates represents 255 speakers on Planificación de escenarios y previsión estratégica, including Kemal Apaydin, Peter Fisk, Mark Stevenson, Olivier Sibony, Thimon de Jong, Lucy Bullivant, Rita McGrath, Katja Schipperheijn, Graeme Codrington y Dean van Leeuwen.
Corporate sustainability commitments are increasingly tested by the gap between stated ambition and operational reality. The organisations most exposed are those that have made public climate and human rights pledges while remaining structurally tied to fossil fuel value chains. The harder question – one that very few institutions have frameworks to answer – is who bears accountability when those commitments are measured not against peer benchmarks, but against the lived consequences in the communities most affected.
Most leadership advice assumes a stable operating environment that is no longer reliably available. Teams are being asked to make consequential decisions with incomplete information, in conditions that change faster than the planning cycle, and on terrain no one in the room has crossed before. The question is no longer how to optimise a known route. It is how to keep a team moving, intact and clear-headed when the route itself keeps shifting.
Most leadership teams cannot articulate the basic scientific systems that their business depends on. When resources tighten, supply chains fracture or new technologies arrive faster than the strategy cycle, the gap between executive intuition and physical reality becomes a serious commercial risk. Foresight at this depth is rare, and almost never delivered with clarity.
Senior teams rehearse for crises they expect and freeze when the actual one arrives. The gap between a documented decision protocol and a leader who can run one in real time is where most organisations are exposed. Mission control culture closes that gap, and very few people in business have lived inside it.
Senior teams know the AI race rewards speed and punishes caution, even when caution is what their own risk function is asking for. Coordination across competitors looks naive; unilateral restraint looks like ceding ground. The question is how to operate, and govern, inside that pressure without sleepwalking into outcomes no one in the room actually wants.
Boards used to treat geopolitics as background noise. It is now a line item in capital allocation, supply chain design, and sanctions exposure. Most leadership teams have no one in the room who has actually negotiated with the White House, sat inside a National Security Council, or watched a transatlantic alliance fracture from the inside.
Boards are being asked to take real positions on China exposure, Russia, sanctions regimes, and the next conflict before the analyst notes catch up. Most leadership teams have no internal capacity to read state-level competition with confidence. The cost of getting it wrong now sits in revenue lines, not just risk registers.
The institutions designed to contain a sovereign debt crisis – fiscal rules, central bank mandates, creditor agreements – rarely hold together under real pressure. Organisations exposed to European markets carry risk that standard scenario planning consistently underestimates. The decisions that actually matter in those rooms – and the compromises made to reach them – rarely match the public account.
Cities are being asked to decarbonise, densify, and absorb new populations through infrastructure that was not designed for any of those things. Most planning systems still optimise for delivery, not for long-term liveability or social cohesion. The hard question is no longer whether to retrofit and rebuild, but how to do it without producing places people will struggle to live in twenty years from now.
Most organisations plan as if the future is a continuation of the present, only faster. The future they actually face is shaped by turning points, unexpected shocks, and ideas that arrive from outside the industry. Long-range thinking is rarely a discipline inside the leadership team, which leaves strategy exposed to events that were predictable to almost no one in the room.
Boards are being asked to make long-horizon capital decisions while the rules-based order they relied on for thirty years is coming apart. Sanctions regimes, technology controls, and great-power rivalry now sit inside ordinary commercial decisions about supply chains, AI investment, and market access. Leadership teams need a serious framework for reading geopolitical change, not headlines.
Most organisations treat new ideas as intellectual problems – to be argued over, refined, and approved before anyone acts on them. That process is not a filter for bad ideas; it is a filter for action. The companies that build new things do not have better ideas. They have better discipline around testing the ones they have.