Scenarioplanering och strategisk framtidsanalys
Talare som hjälper organisationer att förutse osäkerhet, testa antaganden och planera för flera möjliga framtider
Speakers Associates represents 255 speakers on Scenarioplanering och strategisk framtidsanalys, including Kemal Apaydin, Peter Fisk, Mark Stevenson, Olivier Sibony, Thimon de Jong, Lucy Bullivant, Rita McGrath, Katja Schipperheijn, Graeme Codrington och Dean van Leeuwen.
Most strategic failures are diagnosed too late and in the wrong place. By the time an organisation recognises it has been solving the wrong problem, the cost is already embedded in the decision. Leaders under pressure default to pattern recognition – reaching for familiar solutions before they have clearly defined the actual challenge. Speed and confidence are rewarded; rigorous diagnosis is not.
Leaders routinely attribute corporate success or failure to strategy, talent, and execution. The evidence is less flattering: a company’s operating country and regulatory environment explain more of its performance than most boards account for. As geopolitical fragmentation reshapes trade flows, investment conditions, and competitive advantage, organisations lack a disciplined framework for reading the macro-terrain – and adjusting their location and market decisions before rivals do.
Most large organisations have funded AI programmes and run pilots. Most of those pilots never reach production. The gap is not technical capability. It is the absence of an outcome architecture that connects experimentation to structural change. Meanwhile, boards are approving AI investment without the governance frameworks to manage the risks that sit inside AI agents and automated decision-making systems.
Leaders trust their judgment. But judgment is built entirely from past experience, which means it reliably reproduces what already exists. The challenge isn’t a lack of data or analytical capability. Every decision in an organisation is filtered through a perceptual system that evolved to predict, not to discover. Genuine adaptation requires something harder than a new strategy: it requires the ability to see what your own assumptions make invisible.
Technology strategies are being made faster than the institutions running them can think. The tools leaders use to understand risk were built for a slower, more legible world. When misinformation, digital conflict, and exponential change operate simultaneously, the primary vulnerability isn’t technological, it’s cognitive.
Senior teams are expected to make irreversible calls on partial information, with the clock running and an audience watching. Most organisations train people to analyse, not to decide. The gap shows up in crises, in competitive markets, and in any moment when waiting for certainty is itself the wrong answer.
Boards are making consequential decisions – on investment, supply chains, market exposure, and partnerships – in a geopolitical environment that no longer follows the rules they were trained to read. The separation between geopolitics and business strategy, always convenient, is now actively dangerous. Organisations that treat great-power competition as background noise are not being cautious; they are being blind.
Political decisions made in Washington now move markets, rewrite supply chains and reshape alliances within a single news cycle. Boards and executive teams are being asked to read presidential intent, congressional risk and foreign policy direction in real time, with access to the same cable coverage as everyone else. What they lack is a primary-source account of how those decisions are actually being made, by whom, and on what evidence.
Boards have spent two decades treating Asia as a growth story. They now have to read it as a risk story, where Chinese lending, contested water sources, and competing nuclear powers shape where capital can safely sit. Few directors can name the specific mechanisms behind that shift, let alone what to do about exposure already on the balance sheet.
Banking, payments and customer trust are being rewritten by code, and most incumbent institutions are still organising around branches, products and quarterly earnings. Boards know the platform players, embedded finance and AI agents are reshaping the economics of the industry. The strategic question is how far to push, how fast, and what kind of institution remains on the other side.
Organisations invest heavily in understanding technology trends, yet most briefings start with the applications and skip the science behind them. The result is leaders who can name the tool but cannot reason about where it leads. Quantum computing, space-based infrastructure, and AI all rest on physical principles that reward first-principles thinking – and penalise those who lack it.
Boards with European exposure are operating in a security environment that has not existed since the Cold War. The eastern flank of NATO is no longer a map feature, it is a live variable that shapes energy costs, supply routes, capital flows, and political risk across the continent. Leaders want a view from inside the countries that have been living with this reality for decades, not commentary from the outside.