Planification de scénarios et prospective stratégique

Why organisations work with Farid Tabarki A coherent thesis on how power, work, and value are moving away from the middle, set out in his book The End of the Middle and extended in his 2025 co-authored book The Acceleration Effect, on how organisations should navigate when change itself is speeding up. The vocabulary of radical transparency, radical decentralisation, and the liquid society, which gives leadership teams a shared frame for shifts they already feel but cannot yet name. Studio Zeitgeist’s Transformation Playground whitepaper, with seven organising principles that move the conversation from trend description to operating choice. Direct comparative observation from 195 countries, which gives him a working library of how different political, economic and cultural systems respond to the same structural pressures and feeds the comparisons that land with board audiences. A weekly column in Het Financieele Dagblad and standing on De Volkskrant‘s top 200 most influential people, which signals he is read by the same Dutch business audience clients are trying to reach. Biography highlights Founding director of Studio Zeitgeist, an Amsterdam-based research and strategy practice. Author of The End of the Middle: What a Society of Extremes Means for People, Politics and Business (English edition, 2017) and co-author with Joey Hullegie of Het versnellingseffect (The Acceleration Effect, Atlas Contact, 2025), a Dutch business bestseller on the Managementboek Top 100. Trendwatcher of the Year, Netherlands, 2012-2013. Long-running columnist at Het Financieele Dagblad and listed in De Volkskrant‘s top 200 most influential people in the Netherlands since 2013. Author of the Studio Zeitgeist whitepaper The Transformation Playground, Reinventing Business Principles. Has travelled to 195 countries as part of an ongoing project to visit every country in the world, drawing on the comparative material for his work on institutions and structural change. Supervisory and advisory roles across culture, housing, health and education, including Stadgenoot, the Prince Bernhard Culture Fund, International Theatre Amsterdam, and Platform Onderwijs 2032 for the Dutch government. Named as “Minister of AI” in a hypothetical cabinet by Dutch current affairs programme WNL op Zondag. Biography The middle layer of modern economies is thinning out. Travel agents, retail bankers, mid-tier publishers, and many salaried roles in between have lost the ground they were built on. Power, value, and attention are moving to the edges, towards platforms, networks, and individuals. That is the argument at the heart of The End of the Middle, Farid Tabarki’s book on what a society of extremes means for people, politics, and business. He sets out three structural shifts: the rise of online platforms that absorb intermediary work, technology that hollows out educated jobs, and the decline of the nation state as the central seat of power. The book reads as a working manual for leaders who can feel these shifts in their own businesses but lack the language to act on them. His 2025 book Het versnellingseffect, co-authored with Joey Hullegie and published by Atlas Contact, extends the thinking. The argument is that change is no longer punctuated by single technologies but by the rate of change itself, and that authority, place, value, and the human scale are all coming under pressure as a result. It is written as a navigation guide for organisations that can no longer assume a new equilibrium will arrive. Tabarki has been researching the European zeitgeist since 2000 through Studio Zeitgeist, the Amsterdam practice he founded. The studio’s Transformation Playground whitepaper lays out seven organising principles for companies operating in a more decentralised, more transparent, more liquid environment. He has also spent two decades travelling to 195 countries as part of a project to visit every country in the world. That comparative material, covering how different systems handle urbanisation, technology, governance, and economic pressure, sits behind the case studies he uses with boards. He is read weekly in Het Financieele Dagblad, sits on De Volkskrant‘s top 200 most influential people in the Netherlands, and was named Dutch Trendwatcher of the Year for 2012-2013. The work that earns him a board hearing is the same work that earns him those columns: a willingness to push past the trend label and ask what the shift actually changes for the next strategic decision. Key speaking topics The end of the middle and the liquid society The acceleration effect and strategic navigation Radical transparency in organisations Radical decentralisation of power and work Strategic foresight and structural shifts Liquid leadership Reinventing business principles for a post-middle economy Platforms, networks, and the redistribution of value Ideal for Boards and executive committees confronting structural change in their sector Strategy and transformation leads setting medium-term direction under uncertainty Senior leadership conferences where the brief calls for both a sharp keynote and a credible moderator Audience outcomes A clearer reading of which parts of their business sit on the disappearing middle A working vocabulary for shifts in transparency, decentralisation, and liquidity that staff already sense Specific organising principles to test against their current structure and strategy A sharper view of where customer and employee power is moving next

Why organisations work with Federica Mogherini Five years as the EU’s most senior diplomat, chairing the Foreign Affairs Council and running the European External Action Service across the Crimea sanctions, the Iran deal, Brexit, the Trump transatlantic shift and the early phase of EU-China strategic recalibration. As the EU High Representative, she coordinated and chaired the multilateral negotiations that produced the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action on Iran’s nuclear programme, then chaired its Joint Commission, the operational reference point for what a complex multilateral agreement looks like in practice. Author of the 2016 EU Global Strategy, Shared Vision, Common Action: A Stronger Europe, the document that frames how the European Union still describes its place in the world and its relationship with the United States, China and its neighbourhood. A former national foreign minister and former NATO Parliamentary Assembly delegate, which means she can speak with equal credibility on EU institutional dynamics and on member-state and alliance politics. Biography highlights High Representative of the European Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy and Vice-President of the European Commission, 2014 to 2019. Italian Minister for Foreign Affairs and International Cooperation, 2014, in the Renzi government. Member of the Italian Chamber of Deputies, 2008 to 2014, and head of the Italian delegation to the NATO Parliamentary Assembly. Coordinator and chair of the E3+3 negotiations that produced the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action with Iran, finalised July 2015 and endorsed by UN Security Council Resolution 2231. Co-Chair of the UN Secretary-General’s High-Level Panel on Internal Displacement, 2020 to 2021. Holds honorary doctorates from the University of Tampere, the University of Surrey and the University of Tirana, and has been recognised with the Hessian Peace Prize, the Kaiser Otto Prize for European unity, and Japan’s Order of the Rising Sun, Second Class. Biography For five years from November 2014, every formal EU position on Iran, Russia, Ukraine, the Middle East, the Western Balkans and the transatlantic relationship was coordinated through one office. Federica Mogherini ran it. As High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy and Vice-President of the European Commission, she chaired the Foreign Affairs Council, led the European External Action Service and represented the Union at the United Nations, NATO and the G7. The defining file of that tenure was Iran. After twelve years of EU-led negotiation, the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action was finalised in July 2015 and endorsed by UN Security Council Resolution 2231. Mogherini then chaired its Joint Commission, the body responsible for monitoring implementation, including through the Trump administration’s withdrawal in 2018. Alongside that, she developed and launched the 2016 EU Global Strategy, Shared Vision, Common Action: A Stronger Europe, the framework that still shapes how Brussels describes its strategic interests in a multipolar order. Before the Commission role, she had served as Italian Foreign Minister in 2014 and as a member of the Italian Chamber of Deputies from 2008, including as head of the Italian delegation to the NATO Parliamentary Assembly. That sequence gives her the unusual range of having sat as a national minister, an EU vice-president, and a transatlantic security parliamentarian inside one career. What she offers serious audiences is the reading you get from someone who chaired the room: how decisions on Russia, Iran, China and the United States are actually made in European capitals and at the Berlaymont, and where the next pressure points sit for organisations operating across those geographies. Key speaking topics European foreign and security policy Transatlantic relations and the future of US-EU cooperation Iran, the Middle East and nuclear diplomacy Multilateralism and the rules-based international order The European Union’s role in a multipolar world Migration, displacement and human rights Women’s leadership in global affairs Ideal for Boards and executive committees scoping geopolitical exposure across Europe, the Middle East and the transatlantic corridor. Government affairs, public policy and sustainability functions tracking EU regulatory and foreign-policy direction. Financial institutions and energy, defence and industrial businesses with sanctions, Iran or Russia exposure. Senior leadership audiences at multilateral institutions, foundations and NGOs operating on conflict, migration or displacement files. Audience outcomes A direct reading of how European foreign and security decisions are taken, from someone who chaired the Foreign Affairs Council. A clearer sense of where the EU, the United States and China are heading on the strategic files that shape international business. An informed view of the Iran file and the wider Middle East from the lead EU negotiator of the JCPOA. A grounded perspective on the limits and uses of multilateral diplomacy in a fracturing order. Confidence that the briefing reflects how the institutions actually operate, not commentary from the outside.

Why organisations work with Felix Oberholzer-Gee His Value Stick reduces competitive strategy to two quantifiable variables – customer willingness-to-pay and employee willingness-to-sell – giving leadership teams a data-driven basis for ranking strategic priorities rather than accumulating them. His central argument – that consistent outperformers do fewer things, not more things – gives boards and strategy teams a principled case for simplification that does not read as retreat or reduced ambition. The framework is designed to be cascaded across an organisation, not held at the strategy function level; it has been used in HBS executive programmes including the Harvard General Management Program and validated by senior practitioners including the CEOs of Michelin and Google X. His research base spans top-tier peer-reviewed economics journals (American Economic Review, Journal of Political Economy) and two decades of HBS executive teaching, so the framework holds under board-level scrutiny and works in a workshop setting. As co-host of After Hours on the TED Audio Collective with Youngme Moon and Mihir Desai, he brings the same analytical rigour to live, public business questions – signalling a communicator as well as a researcher. Biography highlights Andreas Andresen Professor of Business Administration, Strategy Unit, Harvard Business School – member of faculty since 2003 Author: Better, Simpler Strategy: A Value-Based Guide to Exceptional Performance (Harvard Business Review Press, 2021) Creator of the Value Stick framework, taught in HBS MBA and executive programmes including the Harvard General Management Program Faculty Chair: Driving Digital Strategy; Senior Executive Leadership Program for China; Managing Turbulence – Harvard Business School HBS Class of 2006 Faculty Teaching Award (best teacher in core curriculum); 2002 Helen Kardon Moss Anvil Award, Wharton School Research published in American Economic Review, Journal of Political Economy, Journal of Financial Economics, and Journal of Law and Economics Co-host of After Hours, TED Audio Collective, alongside HBS professors Youngme Moon and Mihir Desai Former faculty member, Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania; former Managing Director, Symo Electronics (Switzerland) Biography Felix Oberholzer-Gee has spent more than two decades at Harvard Business School making a counterintuitive argument: the organisations that consistently outperform their rivals are doing fewer things than their competitors, not more. His work is less a critique of strategic planning than a dismantling of the assumption that better strategy means broader strategy. The tool at the centre of his approach is the Value Stick, a framework he developed through research and refined through HBS executive programmes. It measures competitive performance through two variables: customer willingness-to-pay at one end, and employee and supplier willingness-to-sell at the other. The gap between them is the value a firm creates. Any initiative that does not widen that gap, his research shows, is a drain on competitive advantage rather than a contribution to it. That argument is the basis of Better, Simpler Strategy (Harvard Business Review Press, 2021), endorsed in practice by the CEOs of Michelin and Google X. The framework is data-driven and designed to work at every level of an organisation – from board-level portfolio decisions to operational choices about talent and supplier relationships. Oberholzer-Gee holds a PhD in Economics from the University of Zurich and has served in senior leadership roles at HBS, including chair of the MBA programme and Senior Associate Dean for the school’s global research centers. His research has been published in the American Economic Review and the Journal of Political Economy, and covered by the Financial Times, New York Times, and Wall Street Journal. As co-host of After Hours on the TED Audio Collective, he applies the same analytical approach to business and culture questions with a wide public audience – extending the reach of his strategic thinking well beyond the executive classroom. Key speaking topics Value-based competitive strategy The Value Stick framework and willingness-to-pay analysis Strategic focus and initiative prioritisation Digital transformation and value creation Non-market strategy and competitive positioning Business performance in digital and disrupted markets Global competition and the Chinese economy Ideal for Chief Strategy Officers and corporate strategy teams choosing between competing strategic priorities Boards and senior leadership teams evaluating competitive positioning Executive education cohorts focused on general management and commercial strategy Leadership teams in digitally disrupted sectors reassessing the value they create for customers and talent Audience outcomes A single, quantifiable framework for assessing whether a strategic initiative creates or destroys competitive value Clarity on how to reduce strategic complexity without reducing strategic ambition A practical method for mapping competitive advantage through willingness-to-pay and willingness-to-sell Sharper criteria for deciding which initiatives to pursue and which to cut A common language for strategy discussions that can be applied consistently across business units and leadership levels

Why organisations work with Francis Fukuyama His thesis on political decay gives boards a usable lens for what is actually weakening in Western democracies, beyond the daily news cycle. He has direct policy experience from the US State Department and RAND, so the analysis lands as institutional reading, not commentary. The End of History and the Last Man has appeared in over twenty foreign editions and remains the reference point for debates on liberal democracy, which makes him a credible keynote for global audiences. As Mosbacher Director of Stanford’s Center on Democracy, Development and the Rule of Law, he is running a live research programme on the questions leaders are asking about. Few speakers can connect populism, identity politics, and geopolitical realignment inside a single coherent framework grounded in thirty years of published work. Biography highlights Olivier Nomellini Senior Fellow, Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies, Stanford University. Mosbacher Director, Center on Democracy, Development and the Rule of Law; Director, Ford Dorsey Master’s in International Policy, Stanford. Author of The End of History and the Last Man, The Origins of Political Order, Political Order and Political Decay, Trust, Identity, and Liberalism and Its Discontents. Former Policy Planning Staff, US Department of State; former Political Science Department, RAND Corporation. Recipient of the 2024 Fred Riggs Award for Lifetime Achievement in International and Comparative Public Administration. Chair of the editorial board of American Purpose; columnist of Frankly Fukuyama on Substack. Board member at RAND, Freedom House, and the Volcker Alliance; fellow of the National Academy for Public Administration; member of the Council on Foreign Relations. Biography The institutions that underwrite Western market economies were built to be predictable. They are now a source of risk. Francis Fukuyama has spent three decades tracing why, and the work is the reason serious leaders bring him into strategic conversations. His 1992 book The End of History and the Last Man argued that liberal democracy paired with market economies would become the governing template for modern societies. The argument was widely misread as triumphalism. The later work, The Origins of Political Order and Political Order and Political Decay, sets out a far more demanding account of how states, rule of law, and accountable government hold together, and how they come apart. From Stanford’s Freeman Spogli Institute, where he is the Olivier Nomellini Senior Fellow and Mosbacher Director of the Center on Democracy, Development and the Rule of Law, he now runs a live research programme on governance and institutional quality. His recent books Identity and Liberalism and Its Discontents take the framework into the territory boards actually need to understand: populism, identity politics, the sources of democratic backsliding, and what a defensible liberalism looks like under pressure from both flanks. The credibility is not only academic. He served on the Policy Planning Staff at the US State Department and at RAND, sits on the boards of RAND, Freedom House, and the Volcker Alliance, and in 2024 received the Fred Riggs Award for Lifetime Achievement in International and Comparative Public Administration. That record is why a senior leadership team reading his analysis on the trajectory of a democracy can treat it as institutional judgement, not punditry. Key speaking topics Liberal democracy and political order Geopolitical realignment and US-China competition Populism, identity politics, and democratic backsliding Governance, state capacity, and institutional quality Rule of law and economic development The long-term outlook for the liberal international order Technology, platform power, and democratic institutions Ideal for Boards and executive committees setting long-horizon strategy across the US, Europe, and Asia. Chief strategy officers, chief risk officers, and heads of government affairs who need political risk framed at an institutional level. Investor and LP audiences building views on sovereign, regulatory, and geopolitical exposure. Public-sector leadership programmes, foreign ministries, and multilateral institutions working on governance reform. Audience outcomes A clearer reading of which pressures on liberal democracies are cyclical and which are structural. A framework for thinking about state capacity, rule of law, and accountability as distinct variables when assessing country risk. A more precise account of how populism and identity politics translate into policy volatility. A sharper view of the US-China competition beyond the usual trade and technology headlines. Vocabulary and concepts leaders can carry back into strategy discussions with their own teams.

Why organisations work with Frank Gardner Direct line into the security and intelligence conversation. Gardner is the BBC’s Security Correspondent, with three decades of sourced reporting across the Middle East, counter-terrorism and state conflict, and he brings that network into the room. Arabic fluency and a degree in Arabic and Islamic Studies give him a reading of the region that most Western commentators cannot match, particularly on Gulf politics, jihadist movements and Iran. First-hand authority on the personal cost of political violence. He was shot six times by al-Qaeda gunmen in Riyadh in 2004 and returned to full-time reporting in 2005; when he speaks about risk, resilience and continuing to operate, it is from lived experience. A published thriller novelist whose Luke Carlton series (Crisis, Ultimatum, Outbreak, Invasion, Ballistic, published by Bantam and Penguin) is built on real tradecraft, which makes him unusually effective at making intelligence work comprehensible to non-specialist audiences. Credibility signals that serious buyers recognise: OBE for services to journalism, Fellow of the Royal Geographical Society, honorary doctorates from five UK universities, the McWhirter Award for Bravery, Spain’s El Mundo Prize and the UAE’s Zayed Medal. Biography highlights BBC Security Correspondent; previously the BBC’s first full-time Gulf correspondent (1997) and BBC Middle East correspondent based in Cairo (from 1999). Author of Blood and Sand (Bantam, 2006), a Sunday Times top-three bestseller covering 25 years of reporting from the Middle East, and Far Horizons. Author of the Luke Carlton thriller series, featuring a former SBS officer turned MI6 operative: Crisis, Ultimatum, Outbreak, Invasion and Ballistic, published by Bantam and Penguin. Shot and seriously wounded by al-Qaeda gunmen in Riyadh in 2004; returned to full-time BBC reporting in 2005. OBE (2005) for services to journalism. Fellow of the Royal Geographical Society. Honorary doctorates of law from the University of Nottingham, Staffordshire University, the University of Exeter, the University of East Anglia and the Open University. Awards: McWhirter Award for Bravery, El Mundo Prize for International Journalism (Spain), Zayed Medal for Journalism (UAE), UK Press Gazette Person of the Year. Biography The security environment that boards now have to plan against, terrorism, state conflict, energy disruption, cyber, looks less like a set of discrete issues and more like a single interconnected risk map. Reading that map is the work. For nearly three decades, Frank Gardner has done it in public, on air, for the BBC. As the BBC’s Security Correspondent, he has covered the War on Terror since 2002, having previously served as the corporation’s first full-time Gulf correspondent and then as Middle East correspondent based in Cairo. A fluent Arabic speaker with a degree in Arabic and Islamic Studies, he reports from inside the region rather than about it, with sourcing across security services, militaries and political leadership. That authority was sharpened by events. In June 2004, reporting from the Al-Suwaidi district of Riyadh, he was shot six times by al-Qaeda gunmen; his colleague, cameraman Simon Cumbers, was killed. After fourteen operations and seven months in hospital, Gardner returned to full-time BBC reporting in 2005 and has covered every major terrorism and security story since. He was appointed OBE that year for services to journalism. His published work tracks the same terrain from two angles. Blood and Sand, a Sunday Times top-three bestseller, is the non-fiction record of a reporting career built in the Middle East. The Luke Carlton thrillers, Crisis, Ultimatum, Outbreak, Invasion and Ballistic, use the mechanics of real intelligence tradecraft to dramatise the threats he covers on air, and have made him one of the few security commentators equally at home briefing a board and a mass readership. Key speaking topics Geopolitical and security risk Terrorism and counter-terrorism The Middle East and the Gulf Intelligence, espionage and tradecraft Iran, Saudi Arabia and Gulf politics Resilience after serious adversity Global risk and business decision-making Ideal for Boards and executive committees setting strategy against geopolitical and security exposure Chief Risk Officers, Chief Security Officers and Heads of Corporate Security Leadership teams in energy, financial services, defence, aviation and critical infrastructure with Middle East or Gulf operations Annual conferences, client events and internal leadership offsites where a credible read of the threat landscape is the main ask Audience outcomes A working read of the current geopolitical and terrorism threat map, not a headline recap Sharper understanding of Middle East and Gulf dynamics, including Iran, Saudi Arabia and jihadist movements, from someone who reports the region in Arabic A sense of how intelligence services actually work, and what that means for corporate security, travel risk and crisis response A human account of surviving a near-fatal attack and continuing to operate at the top of a demanding profession

Why organisations work with Frits van Paasschen Two Fortune 500 CEO seats, Coors Brewing and Starwood Hotels and Resorts, give him a perspective most disruption speakers do not have: he has actually run the kind of company being disrupted, with shareholders, a board, and a quarter to report. Author of The Disruptors’ Feast, a book built from travel to more than 100 countries and interviews with operators rather than academics, which gives board conversations a concrete evidence base rather than a theoretical one. Still sits inside the rooms he advises. Current directorships at Amadeus, Williams-Sonoma, dsm-firmenich, and Sonder mean his view of governance under disruption is current, not retrospective. Credible on the international dimension in a way US-centric speakers are not. Dutch-American, ran Nike’s EMEA business out of the Netherlands, speaks five languages, led Starwood during its China expansion. A Stanford Distinguished Careers Institute fellowship and a Harvard MBA Teaching Fellowship in Economics signal the same thing his book does: he treats the CEO job as an intellectual problem, not a performance. Biography highlights President and CEO, Starwood Hotels and Resorts Worldwide, 2007 to 2015 President and CEO, Coors Brewing Company, 2005 to 2007 Corporate Vice President and General Manager, Europe, Middle East and Africa, Nike Author, The Disruptors’ Feast: How to Avoid Being Devoured in Today’s Rapidly Changing Global Economy Current directorships at Amadeus IT Group, Williams-Sonoma (Chair, Audit and Finance Committee), dsm-firmenich, and Sonder Holdings Fellow, Stanford Distinguished Careers Institute; MBA, Harvard Business School; BA Economics and Biology, Amherst College Biography Starwood Hotels and Resorts was acquired by Marriott in 2016. In the years immediately before that, the company was navigating Airbnb, the rise of China as its fastest-growing market, a mobile-first guest, and an activist investor. Frits van Paasschen ran it through most of that period, from 2007 to 2015, having arrived from the CEO seat at Coors Brewing and, before that, Nike’s EMEA business. Three different consumer industries, three different disruption stories, one operator. That operating lineage is what makes his view on disruption unusual. The Disruptors’ Feast, his 2017 book, is not a consultant’s map of “the future of” anything. It is reporting, drawn from more than 100 countries he has worked in or travelled to, on how the combination of connectivity, demographic shift, and capital flows actually lands inside companies. The argument is that most incumbents do not lose to a single disruptor; they lose to the compounding of several forces they treated as separate problems. He remains inside the governance conversation rather than outside commentating on it. He chairs the Audit and Finance Committee at Williams-Sonoma, sits on the boards of Amadeus, dsm-firmenich, and Sonder, and recently completed a two-year fellowship at the Stanford Distinguished Careers Institute. That combination matters for a speaking audience of directors and C-suite leaders: when he talks about how a board should read a strategic threat or a management succession under pressure, he is describing the seat he is currently in. The value for a serious leadership audience is not the disruption taxonomy. It is watching a former public-company CEO think out loud about the decisions he got right, the ones he did not, and what a director should actually be asking when the operating model starts to strain. Key speaking topics Leadership under disruption Global strategy and international expansion Board governance in volatile markets Consumer and hospitality business transformation CEO decision-making and accountability Cross-cultural leadership of global organisations Ideal for Boards and non-executive directors working through strategic threats to the core business CEO and C-suite offsites where the agenda is how to lead an incumbent through sustained disruption Global consumer, retail, hospitality, and travel-industry leadership audiences Senior strategy, transformation, and corporate development teams inside multinationals Audience outcomes A sharper read on which disruptive forces compound inside an incumbent and which are noise A working vocabulary for how boards and CEOs should talk about risk, governance, and pace of change together rather than separately Specific, named examples from Starwood, Coors, Nike, and the companies he now sits on the boards of, rather than generic case studies A more honest framework for what a global leadership role actually requires, from someone who has run one on three continents

Why organisations work with Garry Golden He is a credentialled futurist, M.S. in Futures Studies from the University of Houston and former board member of the Association of Professional Futurists, not a trend commentator. The discipline behind the talk is the product. He has applied foresight inside Microsoft, Accenture, American Express, Disney, CVS Aetna, Fidelity, and Boston Scientific, which means executives hear method tested against their own scale of complexity. His work concentrates on the two infrastructure shifts most likely to reset competitive position this decade, energy and transportation, paired with the demographic and AI dynamics that pull on them. He teaches the future of energy and environment at the University of Houston, so his framing of the energy transition carries technical detail rather than generic sustainability framing. Clients use him to install foresight as an internal capability, not as a one-off keynote: he leaves teams with a process for thinking about long-range change after he leaves the room. Biography highlights M.S. in Futures Studies, University of Houston Foresight programme. Adjunct Lecturer on the Future of Energy and Environment, University of Houston. Past Board of Directors, Association of Professional Futurists. Foresight and strategy work delivered for Microsoft (Bing/Cortana), Accenture, American Express, Disney, CVS Aetna, Fidelity, Dell, Boston Scientific, Verizon Wireless. Civic and cultural foresight engagements with AARP, the Kennedy Center, Philadelphia Museum of Art, the Walker Arts Center, and the American Alliance of Museums. Recurring focus on energy system decarbonisation, fuel cells, AI-driven software disruption, and global demographic transitions. Biography Most strategy decks treat the next decade as a longer version of the last one. The discipline of futures studies exists because that assumption has stopped holding, particularly in industries where AI, energy systems, and demographic structure are all shifting at the same time. Golden was trained inside that discipline. He holds an M.S. in Futures Studies from the University of Houston, one of the few graduate programmes in the field, and served on the Board of Directors of the Association of Professional Futurists. He now teaches the Future of Energy and Environment at Houston as an Adjunct Lecturer, which keeps his work close to the technical detail of the energy transition rather than the marketing version of it. The client list reflects the breadth of where structured foresight earns its place. Microsoft has used him inside the Bing and Cortana groups; Accenture, American Express, CVS Aetna, Disney, Fidelity, Dell, and Boston Scientific have brought him in to stretch leadership horizons on AI, infrastructure, financial services, and talent. He works the civic side as well, with AARP, the Kennedy Center, the Philadelphia Museum of Art, and the American Alliance of Museums commissioning work on demographic and cultural shifts. The pattern across those engagements is consistent. Leaders arrive with a planning process built for incremental change and leave with a method, drivers, signals, scenarios, decisions, that lets them treat exponential change as something to plan around rather than react to. Key speaking topics Strategic foresight and long-range scenario planning The future of energy systems and decarbonisation AI and software-driven industry transitions The future of transportation and mobility infrastructure Demographic change and its strategic implications Future of work, learning, and talent development The future of civic and cultural institutions Ideal for CEO and executive teams running long-range strategy reviews in energy, financial services, healthcare, and technology. Chief Strategy Officers and corporate development leads building scenario capability inside the planning function. Boards and investment committees pressure-testing capital allocation against ten and twenty year horizons. Innovation, R&D, and learning leaders responsible for connecting talent and capability plans to coming infrastructure shifts. Audience outcomes A working vocabulary for distinguishing trend, driver, and signal, and using each appropriately in strategic conversation. A clearer view of which shifts in AI, energy, and demographics are likely to reshape their specific industry within the planning horizon. A repeatable scenario method the team can run again without external facilitation. Sharper questions for the next strategy cycle, in particular where current assumptions are most likely to fail.

Why organisations work with Garry Kasparov He is the person who sat across the board from Deep Blue in 1996 and 1997. When he talks about AI and human judgement, the source material is his own. He turns chess into a working vocabulary for executive decision-making, separating strategy from tactics in a way senior leaders can use the next morning. As a Senior Visiting Fellow at the Oxford Martin School and long-time Security Ambassador for Avast, he speaks about AI, cybersecurity and privacy from inside the conversation, not as a commentator on it. His books “How Life Imitates Chess” and “Deep Thinking” give audiences a durable framework and a shared reference point after the session ends. He brings a second register that few speakers in this space can match: a first-hand view of Russia, Putin and the fragility of democratic institutions, grounded in decades of activism and the book “Winter Is Coming.” Biography highlights Youngest undisputed World Chess Champion at 22, in 1985, after defeating Anatoly Karpov. Held the world number one ranking from 1986 until his retirement from professional chess in 2005. Played IBM’s Deep Blue in 1996 and 1997, the first reigning world champion to lose a match to a computer under tournament conditions. Senior Visiting Fellow at the Oxford Martin School, University of Oxford, working on human-machine collaboration. Founder and chairman of the Renew Democracy Initiative; former chairman of the Human Rights Foundation. Author of “How Life Imitates Chess,” “Winter Is Coming” and “Deep Thinking: Where Machine Intelligence Ends and Human Creativity Begins.” Biography In 1997, IBM’s Deep Blue beat the reigning world chess champion under tournament conditions for the first time in history. The champion on the other side of the board was Garry Kasparov. Nearly three decades later, the questions that match raised about human judgement and machine intelligence are now the everyday questions of corporate strategy. Kasparov has spent the years since making those questions usable for leaders. At the Oxford Martin School, where he is a Senior Visiting Fellow, he works on the evolving relationship between humans and technology. As Security Ambassador for Avast, he has spent nearly a decade inside the cybersecurity and AI debate, not commenting from outside it. His book “Deep Thinking,” written with Mig Greengard, argues that machines that think are not the end of human creativity but a forcing function for it. The chess career underwrites all of it. Becoming the youngest undisputed world champion at 22, holding the number one ranking for almost twenty years, and defending the title across multiple cycles against Anatoly Karpov gave him a working vocabulary for strategy, tactics, preparation and competitive psychology. “How Life Imitates Chess” is the book executives quote back to him. The distinction he draws between long-term strategy and short-term tactics is one of the most portable ideas a senior team can bring out of a keynote. There is a second strand to the work, and buyers should know it is there. Kasparov founded the Renew Democracy Initiative in 2017 and chaired the Human Rights Foundation for over a decade. His book “Winter Is Coming” was one of the earliest serious warnings about Vladimir Putin’s intentions, written well before events made that view consensus. For audiences who want a voice on geopolitical risk alongside the AI and strategy material, he delivers it with the same directness. Key speaking topics Artificial intelligence and human-machine collaboration Strategic thinking and decision-making under pressure Cybersecurity, privacy and digital freedom The future of work in an age of intelligent machines Russia, Putin and the defence of democratic institutions Leadership, preparation and competitive performance Ideal for CEOs, boards and executive teams rethinking strategy and decision rights as AI moves deeper into the business. CIOs, CISOs and technology leaders navigating cybersecurity, AI adoption and trust. Leadership and talent events where audiences want a working model for strategy versus tactics, not a motivational talk. Policy, risk and government affairs audiences who want an informed voice on Russia and the state of liberal democracy. Audience outcomes A clear distinction between strategy and tactics that senior teams can apply to their own decisions the week after the session. A realistic view of what AI changes in knowledge work, from a speaker who lived the original turning point. Sharper questions about where human judgement still adds value, and where defending it is a waste of effort. A first-hand perspective on Russia and authoritarian risk that frames geopolitical uncertainty in concrete terms. A shared reference point, drawn from chess, that stays useful in strategy conversations long after the event.

Why organisations work with Gavin Esler Four decades of frontline political reporting, including twelve years presenting Newsnight and several as BBC Chief North America Correspondent in Washington, give him a working feel for how Westminster and US politics actually behave under stress. His three political books (How Britain Ends, Brexit Without the Bullshit, Britain Is Better Than This) make a coherent argument about constitutional drift, English nationalism and institutional decay that has shaped serious debate about the UK’s direction. A Sony Gold Award and a Royal Television Society award signal that his work meets the standard of named broadcast bodies, not just bureau claims. Ten years as Chancellor of the University of Kent gave him extensive experience chairing formal occasions and speaking to large mixed audiences, which carries through to moderation and awards hosting. He is one of the few broadcasters who can move between a geopolitical keynote, a board Q and A on US politics, and a polished on-stage interview with a chief executive in the same brief. Biography highlights Main presenter of BBC Two’s Newsnight, January 2003 to January 2014. BBC Chief North America Correspondent, Washington DC, covering the Bush and Clinton administrations. Presenter of Dateline London on BBC News and BBC World News until 2017. Sixth Chancellor of the University of Kent, July 2014 to January 2024. Sony Gold Award for the BBC Radio 4 documentary Letters from Guantanamo, and a Royal Television Society award for foreign reporting. Author of Lessons from the Top (Profile Books, 2012), How Britain Ends (2021), Brexit Without the Bullshit and Britain Is Better Than This (2023). Biography Most political analysis on conference stages still treats Westminster and Washington as two separate beats. The interesting question is what happens when they are read as one continuous story about fraying constitutional settlements, contested legitimacy, and the strain these place on business planning. That is the territory Gavin Esler has worked in for four decades. He presented BBC Two’s Newsnight from 2003 to 2014, and before that was BBC Chief North America Correspondent in Washington, shaping the corporation’s US coverage through the first Bush and Clinton administrations. He went on to front Dateline London on BBC News and BBC World News, bringing foreign correspondents into weekly argument about events in their own capitals. His three political books run a consistent thread. How Britain Ends argues that English nationalism, not Scottish independence, is the force most likely to break the British union. Britain Is Better Than This reads the expenses scandal, Brexit, Partygate and the Truss premiership as symptoms of institutional decay rather than isolated failures. Lessons from the Top, written earlier, distils three decades of interviewing figures from Bill Clinton to senior military commanders into a framework for how leaders use story to hold legitimacy. He served ten years as Chancellor of the University of Kent, conferring degrees and chairing formal university occasions through a period of significant change in UK higher education. His Sony Gold Award for Letters from Guantanamo and his Royal Television Society award sit alongside that body of reporting and writing as evidence that his judgement has been tested in public for longer than most commentators now working. Key speaking topics UK politics and constitutional change Brexit and its long tail US politics and the transatlantic relationship Geopolitical risk for boards and investors Trust, disinformation and the media Leadership and storytelling On-stage interviewing and moderation Ideal for Board and executive committee sessions pricing UK and US political risk into three-year strategy. Public affairs, legal and financial services conferences needing a named political analyst rather than a generalist keynote. Awards ceremonies, annual dinners and flagship conferences that need a senior broadcaster as host, interviewer or moderator. Leadership forums examining how institutional trust erodes and how communication holds or loses legitimacy. Audience outcomes A sharper read of where UK constitutional politics is heading and what would have to be true for different outcomes. A working sense of how US political cycles translate into risk for European businesses and investors. A more concrete view of how disinformation and declining institutional trust affect corporate reputation and policy environments. A framework for how leaders use narrative to sustain authority, drawn from his interviews with heads of state and senior executives.

Why organisations work with George Papandreou He ran a G20 economy through the most acute phase of the eurozone crisis. His account of negotiating with the IMF, ECB and European Commission is operational, not theoretical. He has held the two roles that shape Greek and European foreign policy, Prime Minister and Foreign Minister, giving him an unusual horizontal view of how European institutions actually decide. As President of the Socialist International for 16 years, he built and maintained relationships with heads of government across more than a hundred parties worldwide, which informs how he reads political risk outside Europe. His current Council of Europe role as General Rapporteur on Democracy puts him inside the live work on democratic backsliding across 46 member states, not commenting on it from outside. He brings a specific, named thesis on the eurozone, that the architecture is unfinished and that the political legitimacy of monetary union is the real binding constraint, and is willing to argue it on the record. Biography highlights Prime Minister of Greece, October 2009 to November 2011, through the first sovereign debt rescue inside the euro area. Minister of Foreign Affairs of Greece, 1999 to 2004, the period of the Greek-Turkish diplomatic opening. President of the Socialist International, 2006 to 2022; now President Emeritus. General Rapporteur on Democracy, Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe, with PACE adopting his June 2024 report on participatory and deliberative democracy. Fellow, Harvard University’s Center for International Affairs (1992 to 1993) and Institute of Politics (Fall 2012); led the IOP study group “(Re)designing Europe”. Grand Cross decorations from Germany, Spain, Belgium, Portugal, Finland and Sweden; TED Global 2013 speaker on democratic deficit and trust. Biography Greece reached the edge of default inside the euro in 2010. The government that called the IMF was led by George Papandreou, who took office in October 2009 with a public finance hole that nobody on the European side had priced in. The decisions made in the following 24 months, on austerity, on bondholder participation, on whether the eurozone would let a member state fail, shaped a decade of European economic policy. Papandreou had reached that chair through a long political career. He had been Foreign Minister from 1999 to 2004, the period associated with the Greek-Turkish rapprochement, and President of PASOK from 2004. From 2006 to 2022 he was President of the Socialist International, which gave him direct working relationships with heads of government and party leaders across more than a hundred countries. His current work is at the Council of Europe, where he is General Rapporteur on Democracy for the Parliamentary Assembly. In June 2024 PACE adopted his report calling on member states to strengthen participatory and deliberative processes, a substantive technical agenda rather than rhetorical concern about democratic decline. He has paired this with academic work at Harvard, including the Institute of Politics study group “(Re)designing Europe”, and earlier as a Fellow at the Center for International Affairs. For boards and executive audiences, the value is specificity. He can describe how the Eurogroup made decisions in the early hours of a Monday morning, why the political economy of monetary union remains the binding constraint on European integration, and how participatory democratic reforms now under negotiation will change the regulatory environment that companies face across Europe. Key speaking topics The eurozone, sovereign debt and the unfinished architecture of monetary union European political risk and the future of European integration Democratic backsliding and institutional reform in Europe Greece, Turkey and the eastern Mediterranean Crisis leadership at the level of national government Participatory and deliberative democracy Global governance and multilateral cooperation Ideal for Boards and executive committees with significant European exposure assessing political and sovereign risk Heads of public affairs and government relations working on EU institutional reform Investor audiences and capital allocators with euro area sovereign and equity positions Foreign policy and security forums focused on the eastern Mediterranean and Europe’s neighbourhood Audience outcomes A first-hand account of how a sovereign debt rescue inside the euro area was actually negotiated A reading of the political constraints that still sit underneath the euro and what could reopen them A view of which European democracies are most vulnerable to institutional erosion and why A clearer sense of how Council of Europe and EU-level democratic reforms will shape the operating environment A working framework for thinking about the link between economic shock, political legitimacy and policy

Why organisations work with Gerard Lyons A working chief economist’s read on the world cycle, drawn from over a decade as Global Head of Research at Standard Chartered, where his team was ranked the most accurate forecaster in the world by Bloomberg in 2010 and 2011. A record of calling turning points before consensus: the 2008 recession a month before Lehman, Japan’s lost decades a decade earlier, early warnings on the eurozone, and the rise of China when much of the City was sceptical. Inside experience of UK economic policy from the top: lead adviser to Gordon Brown’s Business Council for Britain and Chief Economic Adviser to Boris Johnson at the Greater London Authority. Direct authority on the politics of capital, with testimony on state capitalism and sovereign wealth to committees of the US Senate, the US House, and both Houses of the UK Parliament. A 2019 candidate for Governor of the Bank of England who now sits as Senior Independent Director at Bank of China (UK), chairs the risk committee at BGC Partners, and advises the Official Monetary and Financial Institutions Forum. Biography highlights Chief Economist, Global Head of Research and adviser to the board at Standard Chartered Bank, 1999 to 2012, running a global team of more than 180 economists ranked the most accurate forecaster in the world by Bloomberg in 2010 and 2011 Chief Economist and Executive Director at Dai-Ichi Kangyo Bank, 1989 to 1999, where he called Japan’s lost decades and wrote a regular column in the Nikkei Chief Economic Adviser to the Mayor of London under Boris Johnson, 2013 to 2016, and lead adviser to Gordon Brown’s Business Council for Britain Author of The Consolations of Economics (Faber and Faber), named one of The Telegraph’s Books of the Year, and co-author of Clean Brexit (Biteback), listed by The Economist among its best books on Brexit Chief Economic Strategist and shareholder at Netwealth; Senior Independent Director at Bank of China (UK); risk committee chair at BGC Partners; member of the Advisory Council of the Official Monetary and Financial Institutions Forum and of the UK’s Economic Honours Committee 2019 candidate for Governor of the Bank of England, with a PhD from Queen Mary, University of London Biography The defining feature of the current cycle is that it does not rhyme with the last one. Inflation behaviour and central bank credibility have both shifted, and the geopolitics of trade now moves capital along lines the previous cycle did not teach. Reading this environment well takes someone who has run a global research desk through several earlier turns of it. The forecasting record runs back a long way. At Dai-Ichi Kangyo Bank, then the largest bank in the world, Lyons was chief economist through the 1990s, called Japan’s lost decades and wrote a regular column in the Nikkei. Standard Chartered was the bigger stage. As Global Head of Research, Chief Economist and adviser to the board from 1999 to 2012, he ran a team of more than 180 economists across global macro and emerging-market research, and Bloomberg ranked it the most accurate forecaster in the world in 2010 and 2011. In August 2008, a month before Lehman collapsed, he was one of only two UK economists forecasting a deep imminent recession. Public policy credibility runs alongside the markets record. Lyons was lead adviser to Gordon Brown’s Business Council for Britain and then Chief Economic Adviser to Boris Johnson at the Mayor of London from 2013 to 2016, work that ran from the London Living Wage to the city’s international competitiveness. He has testified on state capitalism and sovereign wealth to committees of the US Senate, the US House, and both Houses of the UK Parliament, and in 2019 was a candidate for Governor of the Bank of England. The published work pulls the threads together. The Consolations of Economics, with Faber and Faber, was named one of The Telegraph’s Books of the Year and translated into Chinese, Korean, German, and Portuguese. Clean Brexit, co-authored with Liam Halligan for Biteback, was listed by The Economist among its best books on Brexit. A Queen Mary, University of London PhD sits behind current roles that now run from Chief Economic Strategist at Netwealth to Senior Independent Director at Bank of China (UK), risk committee chair at BGC Partners, the Advisory Council of the Official Monetary and Financial Institutions Forum, and Research Fellow at the Centre for Policy Studies. Key speaking topics Global economic outlook UK economic policy and competitiveness China and emerging markets Monetary policy and central banks Financial markets and the City of London Energy security, climate finance and the green transition Geopolitical risk and global capital flows Ideal for Boards and investment committees setting capital allocation against the macro cycle CFOs, treasurers, and CIOs in banks, asset managers, and corporates with cross-border exposure Government, policy, and trade audiences working on UK growth, financial services, and post-Brexit strategy Leadership offsites in organisations with material exposure to China, India, and emerging markets Audience outcomes A working read on where inflation, interest rates, and growth are heading across the major economies A clearer view of how geopolitics, sanctions, and great-power competition are reshaping capital flows A defensible house view on China and emerging markets that goes past the headline narrative A sharper sense of the UK’s structural position on growth, financial services, and competitiveness Specific, named scenarios that a board can test its strategy against

Why organisations work with Gerd Leonhard The androrithms concept – Leonhard’s term for the human qualities (empathy, ethical reasoning, creative judgment) that algorithms cannot replicate – gives leadership teams a governance vocabulary that most AI advisors skip. It moves the conversation from “what can we automate?” to “what must we protect, and why is that a strategic decision?” He co-authored The Future of Music (Berklee Press, 2005), correctly forecasting that streaming would displace ownership as the dominant music model years before the industry accepted it. That verifiable prediction track record is what distinguishes his current AI arguments from speculation that cannot be tested against outcomes. The Ten Megashifts framework – mapping ten concurrent technological forces including digitisation, intelligisation, automation and robotisation as a compound system – gives strategy and transformation teams a tool for testing whether their roadmaps account for the full scope of disruption, not just the most visible trend. The HellVen scenario construct frames technology futures as a governance choice between radically different outcomes rather than as a prediction. It is a practical tool for boards running scenario planning exercises on AI strategy and long-term institutional risk. His 2016 argument that digital ethics would become a mandatory boardroom governance issue was published before AI regulation appeared on any major policy agenda. That argument has since been validated, lending weight to his current positions on AI accountability and corporate responsibility. Biography highlights Author of Technology vs Humanity: The Coming Clash Between Man and Machine (2016), published in 12 languages; co-author of The Future of Music (Berklee Press, 2005) Founder and CEO, The Futures Agency, Zurich; Visiting Professor, Fundação Dom Cabral, São Paulo Fellow of the Royal Society for the Arts (FRSA), London Listed by Wired UK as one of the Top 100 Most Influential People in Europe; named by The Wall Street Journal as “one of the leading media futurists in the World” (2006) Views and interviews published in or featured by The Guardian, Harvard Business Review, Business Insider and Wired UK; TV appearances on BBC, CNN, ARTE and ZDF Berklee College of Music alumnus; Quincy Jones Award recipient (1985); former professional guitarist, composer and digital media entrepreneur, San Francisco Biography When Technology vs Humanity appeared in 2016, it arrived with a central claim: decisions about what to automate are fundamentally ethical decisions, not just operational ones. Boards mostly disagreed. They are now being forced to revisit that judgment. As CEO of The Futures Agency in Zurich, Gerd Leonhard has spent the intervening years building the frameworks leadership teams are now looking for. His most distinctive contribution is the distinction between algorithms and androrithms. Algorithms are the machine rules that govern digital systems. Androrithms – his term – are the human qualities that organisations risk losing when they optimise purely for efficiency: empathy, ethical reasoning, creative judgment, intuition. His Ten Megashifts framework maps ten concurrent technological forces as a compound system rather than a sequence of isolated disruptions. It gives boards a structured analytical lens rather than a single-trend narrative. The credibility of this perspective rests partly on record. Leonhard co-authored The Future of Music (Berklee Press, 2005), arguing that streaming would replace ownership as the dominant music model years before the industry accepted it. That early, accurate forecast – made when conventional wisdom pointed elsewhere – distinguishes his current AI arguments from commentary that arrives after the fact. A Fellow of the Royal Society for the Arts in London and Visiting Professor at Fundação Dom Cabral in São Paulo, Leonhard operates between the academic and advisory worlds. Wired UK lists him among the Top 100 Most Influential People in Europe. His perspective is shaped as much by his career as a professional musician and digital entrepreneur as by any institutional affiliation – a background that gives him a track record of having correctly called the trajectory of technological disruption before it became obvious. Key speaking topics Artificial intelligence and the future of business Digital ethics and AI governance Technology and human values Digital transformation strategy Scenario planning for technological disruption Human-machine relationships and organisational decision-making Sustainability and the future of capitalism Ideal for Boards and C-suite teams setting AI governance policy or approving digital transformation roadmaps Chief Digital Officers, CTOs and technology leadership teams seeking frameworks for responsible AI adoption Strategy and foresight functions building scenario plans around the compound impact of technological disruption Corporate governance, risk and legal teams navigating emerging AI regulation and digital ethics requirements Audience outcomes A practical governance vocabulary for deciding which organisational capabilities should and should not be automated, grounded in the androrithms/algorithms framework A structured map of ten concurrent technological forces (the Megashifts) reshaping strategy, operations and competitive positioning simultaneously Understanding of how digital ethics is transitioning from a values conversation to a governance and regulatory requirement – and what that means for corporate accountability A scenario framework (HellVen) for stress-testing whether current AI strategies are likely to produce outcomes boards would endorse under scrutiny A more calibrated perspective on AI’s near-term trajectory, distinguishing intelligent assistance from AGI and assessing which predictions about the next decade are well-grounded