Gerard Lyons

Why organisations work with Gerard Lyons

• A working chief economist’s read on the world cycle, drawn from over a decade as Global Head of Research at Standard Chartered, where his team was ranked the most accurate forecaster in the world by Bloomberg in 2010 and 2011.
• A record of calling turning points before consensus: the 2008 recession a month before Lehman, Japan’s lost decades a decade earlier, early warnings on the eurozone, and the rise of China when much of the City was sceptical.
• Inside experience of UK economic policy from the top: lead adviser to Gordon Brown’s Business Council for Britain and Chief Economic Adviser to Boris Johnson at the Greater London Authority.
• Direct authority on the politics of capital, with testimony on state capitalism and sovereign wealth to committees of the US Senate, the US House, and both Houses of the UK Parliament.
• A 2019 candidate for Governor of the Bank of England who now sits as Senior Independent Director at Bank of China (UK), chairs the risk committee at BGC Partners, and advises the Official Monetary and Financial Institutions Forum.

Biography highlights

• Chief Economist, Global Head of Research and adviser to the board at Standard Chartered Bank, 1999 to 2012, running a global team of more than 180 economists ranked the most accurate forecaster in the world by Bloomberg in 2010 and 2011
• Chief Economist and Executive Director at Dai-Ichi Kangyo Bank, 1989 to 1999, where he called Japan’s lost decades and wrote a regular column in the Nikkei
• Chief Economic Adviser to the Mayor of London under Boris Johnson, 2013 to 2016, and lead adviser to Gordon Brown’s Business Council for Britain
• Author of The Consolations of Economics (Faber and Faber), named one of The Telegraph’s Books of the Year, and co-author of Clean Brexit (Biteback), listed by The Economist among its best books on Brexit
• Chief Economic Strategist and shareholder at Netwealth; Senior Independent Director at Bank of China (UK); risk committee chair at BGC Partners; member of the Advisory Council of the Official Monetary and Financial Institutions Forum and of the UK’s Economic Honours Committee
• 2019 candidate for Governor of the Bank of England, with a PhD from Queen Mary, University of London

Biography

The defining feature of the current cycle is that it does not rhyme with the last one. Inflation behaviour and central bank credibility have both shifted, and the geopolitics of trade now moves capital along lines the previous cycle did not teach. Reading this environment well takes someone who has run a global research desk through several earlier turns of it.

The forecasting record runs back a long way. At Dai-Ichi Kangyo Bank, then the largest bank in the world, Lyons was chief economist through the 1990s, called Japan’s lost decades and wrote a regular column in the Nikkei. Standard Chartered was the bigger stage. As Global Head of Research, Chief Economist and adviser to the board from 1999 to 2012, he ran a team of more than 180 economists across global macro and emerging-market research, and Bloomberg ranked it the most accurate forecaster in the world in 2010 and 2011. In August 2008, a month before Lehman collapsed, he was one of only two UK economists forecasting a deep imminent recession.

Public policy credibility runs alongside the markets record. Lyons was lead adviser to Gordon Brown’s Business Council for Britain and then Chief Economic Adviser to Boris Johnson at the Mayor of London from 2013 to 2016, work that ran from the London Living Wage to the city’s international competitiveness. He has testified on state capitalism and sovereign wealth to committees of the US Senate, the US House, and both Houses of the UK Parliament, and in 2019 was a candidate for Governor of the Bank of England.

The published work pulls the threads together. The Consolations of Economics, with Faber and Faber, was named one of The Telegraph’s Books of the Year and translated into Chinese, Korean, German, and Portuguese. Clean Brexit, co-authored with Liam Halligan for Biteback, was listed by The Economist among its best books on Brexit. A Queen Mary, University of London PhD sits behind current roles that now run from Chief Economic Strategist at Netwealth to Senior Independent Director at Bank of China (UK), risk committee chair at BGC Partners, the Advisory Council of the Official Monetary and Financial Institutions Forum, and Research Fellow at the Centre for Policy Studies.

Key speaking topics

• Global economic outlook
• UK economic policy and competitiveness
• China and emerging markets
• Monetary policy and central banks
• Financial markets and the City of London
• Energy security, climate finance and the green transition
• Geopolitical risk and global capital flows

Ideal for

• Boards and investment committees setting capital allocation against the macro cycle
• CFOs, treasurers, and CIOs in banks, asset managers, and corporates with cross-border exposure
• Government, policy, and trade audiences working on UK growth, financial services, and post-Brexit strategy
• Leadership offsites in organisations with material exposure to China, India, and emerging markets

Audience outcomes

• A working read on where inflation, interest rates, and growth are heading across the major economies
• A clearer view of how geopolitics, sanctions, and great-power competition are reshaping capital flows
• A defensible house view on China and emerging markets that goes past the headline narrative
• A sharper sense of the UK’s structural position on growth, financial services, and competitiveness
• Specific, named scenarios that a board can test its strategy against