Klisman Murati
Boards and investment committees are making capital decisions on geopolitical assumptions that no longer hold. The categories most institutions still use to assess country risk and global exposure were built for a system that is fracturing. Misreading the new map costs capital and market position.
Klisman Murati is the geoeconomic strategist boards and investment committees consult when conventional analysis of global risk stops tracking reality.
Full Profile
Why organisations work with Klisman Murati
- The Global Power Index, a proprietary quantitative model assessing 194 countries across ten dimensions of national power and 30 years of data. Clients drawing on it include NATO, the European Commission, Shell, JP Morgan, and HSBC.
- A documented forecasting record. The GPI signalled Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and Germany’s 2024 recession before consensus, and informs the way shipping, energy, and capital-allocation leaders read their geopolitical exposure.
- Two frameworks that give boards a shared language for hard problems: geo-risk, his term for reading political, technological, demographic, and capital forces as one compounding system, and segmented polarity, his alternative to the developed and emerging categories for seeing where capability is actually accumulating.
- A live read on where power is moving rather than a retrospective. He brings specific current calls, from Gulf capital as a new power centre to India’s climb from 24th to 6th on the index since 1994, and why blocs like BRICS cohere in some domains and fragment in others.
- A multidisciplinary lens that single-discipline analysts cannot replicate. His training spans anthropology, political economy, energy policy, security studies, and financial crime, which is what allows him to read AI, protectionism, capital flows, and demographic change as one connected system.
Biography highlights
- Founder and CEO of Pareto Economics, the London-based strategic intelligence firm behind the Global Power Index
- Creator of the Global Power Index, built on 88 variables and more than 500,000 data points, with a methodology developed alongside Dr Karim Abadir, Emeritus Professor of Financial Econometrics at Imperial College London
- Originator of the geo-risk and segmented polarity frameworks, the latter set out in his macro thesis How to Think in First Principles About Global Affairs and the basis of his forthcoming book, Segmented Polarity: Why the World’s Most Important Economies Are Being Dangerously Misread
- Forecasts arriving ahead of consensus include Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and Germany’s 2024 recession
- Clients include NATO, the European Commission, Shell, JP Morgan, HSBC, Vanguard, Telia, and Stena Bulk, with audiences in more than 120 countries
- Visiting Professor at the Helsinki Geoeconomics Institute; commentator across BBC, Al Jazeera, CGTN, the Financial Times, and Investment Week; author of more than 250 published articles
Biography
Pareto Economics called Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and Germany’s 2024 recession ahead of consensus. Behind those calls sits the Global Power Index, a proprietary model of 194 countries built on more than 85 variables and over half a million data points across 30 years.
Klisman Murati founded the firm in 2017 to fix a specific failure in country-risk analysis. Conventional models rank economies by income thresholds and credit ratings. The GPI instead measures capability across ten structural dimensions, from energy and critical-minerals security to industrial capacity, technological leadership, human capital, and financial resilience, and reads each on two axes: where a country stands today, and how fast it is moving. The methodology was built with Dr Karim Abadir, Emeritus Professor of Financial Econometrics at Imperial College London.
His work rests on two ideas. Geo-risk treats geopolitics, globalisation, technology, and societal change as a single compounding system rather than separate stories. Segmented polarity, the basis of his forthcoming book of the same name, replaces both the developed-and-emerging divide and the catch-all of multipolarity with a sharper read of how countries actually accumulate power, selectively, in the domains where they can compete. Both let leaders price change before it reaches consensus.
That work has put him in the room with the people allocating capital under geopolitical exposure: NATO, the European Commission, Shell, JP Morgan, HSBC, Vanguard, Stena Bulk, and Telia, with audiences in more than 120 countries. His current reads from the index include Gulf capital as a new power centre, India’s climb from 24th to 6th place since 1994, and why groupings like BRICS hold together in some domains and fragment in others.
Key speaking topics
- Geoeconomic strategy and country risk
- The Global Power Index and quantitative country forecasting
- Geo-risk and the compounding of political, technological, and capital forces
- Segmented polarity and emerging-market reassessment
- Geopolitical risk and capital allocation
- Fragmentation of the global trade and investment order
- AI, protectionism, and the redistribution of global power
- Long-horizon strategic foresight
Ideal for
- Boards, investment committees, and CIOs setting country and exposure strategy in a fracturing global order
- Asset managers and family offices repositioning capital ahead of geopolitical shocks
- Corporate strategy leadership in energy, shipping, financial services, and technology with material cross-border exposure
- Policymakers and government officials shaping long-horizon economic and security strategy
Audience outcomes
- A clearer view of which forces will actually shape the next five to ten years, separated from headline noise
- A working framework for pricing geopolitical risk into specific capital allocation, market entry, and exposure decisions
- Specific signals to track in their own industry, sector, or geography, drawn directly from the GPI’s underlying data
- Replacement of outdated categories like “emerging markets” with a sharper, data-driven read of country capability
Talks
A strategic playbook for senior leaders making consequential calls when the assumptions behind those calls are themselves in flux.
Key takeaways:
- How to separate signal from rhetoric in a market that has stopped believing official narratives
- A decision-making framework that holds up in conditions previous strategy cycles were not designed for
- Specific tools for leading through compounding volatility without defaulting to reactive analysis
A direct replacement for the developed and emerging categories investors still allocate against, built on GPI data.
Key takeaways:
- Why conventional market classifications now obscure more than they reveal
- Which countries are accumulating capability ahead of consensus recognition
- How to spot overlooked opportunities before mainstream capital arrives
How systems thinking and first-principles analysis, applied to GPI data, surface the trends and risks that quarterly cycles miss.
Key takeaways:
- How to separate long-term signal from short-term noise
- How to test consensus assumptions before they harden into decisions
- How to build strategic advantage from sharper foresight
How to make questioning a standing capability, so foresight becomes part of how the organisation runs instead of a one-day event.
Key takeaways:
- How to instil a questioning mindset at every level of the organisation
- Why leadership in complex conditions works better modular than hierarchical
- How to build cultures where hard conversations produce better decisions