Gerard Lyons
Boards are making capital decisions inside a macro environment that has stopped behaving as the last cycle taught them. Inflation, rates, and the geopolitics of trade no longer move along familiar lines, and the cost of getting the call wrong has risen sharply. Leadership teams need a read on the global economy that goes beyond consensus forecasts and into the political economy that now drives them.
Gerard Lyons is an economist who reads the global cycle for boards and investment committees deciding how to allocate capital under macro and geopolitical pressure.
Full Profile
Why organisations work with Gerard Lyons
- A working chief economist’s view of the world cycle, drawn from over a decade as Group Head of Global Research at Standard Chartered, where his team was ranked the most accurate forecaster globally by Bloomberg in 2010 and 2011.
- A track record of calling turning points before consensus, including the 2008 recession a month before Lehman and early warnings on the eurozone, Japan’s lost decades, and the rise of China.
- Inside experience of UK economic policy from both sides: lead adviser on Gordon Brown’s Business Council for Britain and Chief Economic Adviser to Boris Johnson at the Greater London Authority.
- Direct authority on the politics of capital, with testimony to committees of the US Senate, the US House, and both Houses of the UK Parliament on state capitalism and sovereign wealth.
- A 2019 candidate for Governor of the Bank of England, with current board roles at Bank of China (UK) and BGC Partners and Senior Fellow status at the Centre for Policy Studies.
Biography highlights
- Chief Economist and Group Head of Global Research at Standard Chartered Bank, 1999 to 2012, leading roughly 180 staff
- Chief Economic Adviser to the Mayor of London under Boris Johnson, 2013 to 2016
- Author of The Consolations of Economics (Faber and Faber) and co-author of Clean Brexit (Biteback), the latter listed by The Economist among the best books on Brexit
- Chief Economic Strategist at Netwealth; Senior Independent Director at Bank of China (UK); Chair of the Risk Committee at BGC Partners
- Council member of the Royal Economic Society and Fellow of the Society of Professional Economists; advisory board member at the Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment
- 2019 candidate for Governor of the Bank of England
Biography
The defining feature of the current cycle is that it does not rhyme with the last one. Inflation behaviour, central bank credibility, and the geopolitics of trade have shifted enough that boards reading consensus forecasts can still be wrong on the call that matters. Reading this environment well requires someone who has run a global research desk through several previous turns of the cycle.
Standard Chartered was that desk for over a decade. As Group Head of Global Research and Chief Economist from 1999 to 2012, Lyons ran a team of around 180 staff covering emerging markets, currencies, and global macro, and Bloomberg ranked it the most accurate global forecaster in 2010 and 2011. The earlier track record matters too: a recession call in August 2008, a month before Lehman; early warnings on the eurozone; a thesis on China’s rise that read clearly when much of the City was still sceptical.
Public policy credibility runs alongside that. Lyons was the lead adviser to Gordon Brown’s Business Council for Britain and then Chief Economic Adviser to Boris Johnson at the Mayor of London from 2013 to 2016, work that included the London Living Wage and the city’s international competitiveness agenda. He has testified to committees of the US Senate, the US House, and both Houses of the UK Parliament, and was a 2019 candidate for Governor of the Bank of England.
The published work pulls the threads together. The Consolations of Economics, with Faber and Faber, set out a framework for a multi-polar world economy and was translated into Chinese, Korean, German, and Portuguese. Clean Brexit, co-authored with Liam Halligan and published by Biteback, was listed by The Economist among the best books on Brexit. Current roles span Chief Economic Strategist at Netwealth, the Bank of China (UK) board, the Risk Committee chair at BGC Partners, and Senior Fellow at the Centre for Policy Studies.
Key speaking topics
- Global economic outlook
- UK economic policy and competitiveness
- China and emerging markets
- Monetary policy and central banks
- Financial markets and the City of London
- Climate finance and the green transition
- Geopolitical risk and global capital flows
Ideal for
- Boards and investment committees setting capital allocation against the macro cycle
- CFOs, treasurers, and CIOs in banks, asset managers, and corporates with cross-border exposure
- Government, policy, and trade audiences working on UK growth, financial services, and post-Brexit strategy
- Leadership offsites in organisations with material exposure to China, India, and emerging markets
Audience outcomes
- A working read on where inflation, interest rates, and growth are heading across the major economies
- A clearer view of how geopolitics, sanctions, and great-power competition are reshaping capital flows
- A defensible house view on China and emerging markets that goes beyond headline narrative
- A sharper sense of the UK’s structural position on growth, financial services, and competitiveness
- Specific, named scenarios that a board can test its strategy against