Yu Yongding

Why organisations work with Yu Yongding

• He sat inside China’s central bank monetary policy deliberations (2004–2006) and inside the post-crisis UN commission that attempted to redesign the global financial architecture – a combination no Western-based economist on China can replicate
• His publicly argued position that China’s US Treasury holdings generate negative real returns and constitute a geopolitical liability gives boards and investment committees a named, verified analytical framework – not commentary, but a specific thesis with a public record
• His analysis consistently diverges from both official Chinese positions and from prevailing Western narratives, which is precisely what makes it useful for stress-testing institutional assumptions about China’s trajectory
• He has published alongside Barry Eichengreen, Raghuram Rajan, and Jean Pisani-Ferry at Bruegel, and contributes regularly to Project Syndicate, meaning his arguments are already in circulation in the rooms where senior policy and investment decisions are made
• As editor-in-chief of China and World Economy and former Director-General of IWEP, he has shaped the research agenda that feeds into Chinese policymaking: he knows not just the conclusions but the institutional reasoning behind them

Biography highlights

• Academician, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences; D.Phil. in economics, University of Oxford (1994)
• Director-General, Institute of World Economics and Politics (IWEP), CASS – China’s leading international economics research institution – for over a decade, 1998–2009
• Member, Monetary Policy Committee, People’s Bank of China, 2004–2006
• President, China Society of World Economy, 2003–2011
• Member, UN Commission of Experts on Reforms of the International Monetary and Financial System (Stiglitz Commission), convened in response to the 2008 global financial crisis
• Member, UN High-Level Panel on Financial Accountability, Transparency, and Integrity (FACTI Panel)
• Regular contributor to Project Syndicate, South China Morning Post, Wire China, and Bruegel; published alongside Eichengreen, Rajan, and Pisani-Ferry
• Editor-in-chief, China and World Economy (Wiley); also editor-in-chief of World Economy and International Review of Economics

Biography

The global reserve currency system has a structural problem that most institutional risk frameworks are not built to assess. The US dollar’s dominant position rests on arrangements; surplus-country accumulation of US Treasuries, capital account conventions, and geopolitical assumptions that are under visible strain. The economists who advise China’s central bank and finance ministries have been debating this openly for two decades. Their conclusions rarely reach Western boardrooms with the precision or independence that makes them actionable.

Yu Yongding’s career has placed him at the centre of that debate, on both sides of it. As Director-General of the Institute of World Economics and Politics at CASS from 1998 to 2009, he led the institution that shapes China’s engagement with international economic policy. As a member of the People’s Bank of China Monetary Policy Committee from 2004 to 2006, he participated directly in the monetary decisions of one of the world’s most consequential central banks. Few economists working on China have held both roles.

His analytical contribution is specific and verifiable. He has argued publicly that China’s accumulation of US Treasuries constitutes a structural misallocation, producing negative real returns while creating the kind of geopolitical vulnerability that became concrete when US sanctions froze Russian central bank assets. He has written on the Mundell-Fleming trilemma as it applies to China’s exchange rate constraints, on the conditions for sustainable Chinese growth, and on the reform of the international monetary architecture. These arguments are his own; they sometimes diverge from official Chinese positions, which is what gives them credibility for external audiences.

He contributed to the Stiglitz Commission’s post-2008 work on reforming the international monetary and financial system, and served on the UN FACTI Panel on financial accountability for sustainable development. His published work appears in Project Syndicate, the South China Morning Post, East Asia Forum, and Bruegel, where he has co-authored with Barry Eichengreen, Raghuram Rajan, and Jean Pisani-Ferry. He holds a D.Phil. in economics from Oxford and is editor-in-chief of the Wiley journal China and World Economy.

Key speaking topics

• China’s macroeconomic framework and growth trajectory
• Global reserve currency system and dollar dependency
• RMB internationalisation and capital account reform
• Exchange rate policy and the Mundell-Fleming trilemma
• Reform of the international monetary and financial system
• China’s foreign exchange reserves: composition, risk, and strategy
• Financial stability and systemic risk in the global economy
• Post-crisis international economic governance

Ideal for

• Senior investment committees and sovereign wealth fund leadership assessing China exposure or dollar-denominated reserve strategy
• Central bank governors, finance ministry officials, and financial regulators engaged in monetary policy or international monetary reform
• Global risk forums and geopolitical strategy sessions where China’s macroeconomic trajectory is a first-order variable
• International financial institutions and policy bodies working on the architecture of the global financial system

Audience outcomes

• A specific, independently argued framework for assessing the structural vulnerabilities in China’s monetary position, not a summary of official positions
• Clearer analytical language around the dollar’s reserve status and the conditions under which it is likely to erode
• A more precise understanding of the policy tensions inside China’s macroeconomic framework: exchange rate, demand management, fiscal space, and reserve composition
• Context for interpreting China’s monetary and fiscal policy signals that goes beyond what circulates in Western financial media
• Familiarity with the arguments shaping China’s policy debates, including the positions that diverge from official government framing