Economic Forecasting

Why organisations work with Steven Sitao Xu A working chief economist at a Big Four firm in China, briefing on the same data, policy reads and forecasts that Deloitte uses with its own clients, not a retired view from outside. Two careers’ worth of forecasting: a decade running China forecasting at the Economist Intelligence Unit, then more than a decade as Chief Economist of Deloitte China. Prior roles as Chief Economist for Asia at Societe Generale and Head of Economics at ICBC (Asia) give a markets-side reading that translates directly to CFO and treasury audiences. Used as a regular China commentator by CNBC, Bloomberg, CCTV, the Financial Times and YaleGlobal Online; the same voice editors trust on a deadline. A visiting scholar appointment at Stanford’s Hoover Institution and a guest professorship at Tsinghua School of Economics and Management; the international and domestic Chinese reads of the same economy. Biography highlights Chief Economist and Partner, Deloitte China. Former Chief Representative in China and forecasting director, Economist Intelligence Unit, The Economist Group. Former Chief Economist for Asia at Societe Generale; former Head of Economics at ICBC (Asia). Visiting Scholar, Hoover Institution, Stanford University; guest professor at Tsinghua School of Economics and Management. Regular contributor on CNBC, Bloomberg, CCTV; bylines in the Financial Times, Asian Wall Street Journal, YaleGlobal Online, Caijing, Caixin and 21st Century Business Herald. Education: Peking University (BA Economics), University of Connecticut (MA Economics), Boston College (MS Finance). Biography China is the single largest variable on most large boards’ five-year planning grids, and the data on it is contested. Official statistics, financial-market signals and policy direction often point in different directions in the same quarter. Boards need someone who can hold all three at once and translate them into operating implications. Steven Sitao Xu does that work day to day. As Chief Economist of Deloitte China, he leads the firm’s economic and industry research and is the voice Deloitte’s own clients hear when they want a calibrated read on Chinese growth, monetary policy and sectoral risk. The role sits inside live client decisions, not on a podium. The path to it was unusual in its breadth. Xu spent a decade as forecasting director of the Economist Intelligence Unit in China and Chief Representative for The Economist Group, before which he ran Asia economics for Societe Generale and headed economics at ICBC (Asia). That sequence gave him the editorial and the markets ear in the same career, which is why CNBC, Bloomberg, the Financial Times and CCTV come back to him for live commentary. His academic anchors connect both sides of the conversation: a visiting scholar appointment at Stanford’s Hoover Institution and a guest professorship at Tsinghua’s School of Economics and Management. The result is a speaker who can sit with a CFO on currency exposure, a strategy team on consumer demand, and a board on the geopolitics behind both, without changing register. Key speaking topics China macro outlook and policy direction Chinese financial markets and currency Geopolitics and US-China economic relations Asia-Pacific economic trends Consumer and structural shifts in the Chinese economy Implications of Chinese policy for multinational strategy Ideal for Boards and executive committees of multinationals with material China revenue or supply exposure CFOs, treasurers and capital allocation committees pricing China risk Strategy and corporate development leaders evaluating China entry, scaling or exit Investor and partner conferences in financial services, manufacturing and consumer sectors Audience outcomes A current read on China’s growth trajectory, policy stance and financial-market signals from a working Big Four chief economist A clearer view of where official Chinese statistics, market pricing and policy intent agree and where they do not A framework for translating Chinese macro and policy moves into specific implications for revenue, supply chain and capital decisions An informed perspective on US-China economic friction and what it means operationally for non-Chinese firms

Why organisations work with Stephane Garelli He created the IMD World Competitiveness Yearbook in 1989, the reference benchmark used by governments and multinationals for more than three decades. When he interprets a country’s position, he is the source, not a commentator on the source. His 2025 book World Competitiveness: Rewriting the Rules of Global Prosperity (Wiley) is the first sustained reframing of his own thesis for the post-globalisation era, which gives boards a coherent argument for capital allocation under fragmentation rather than a list of risks. Thirteen years running the World Economic Forum and the Davos Annual Meetings, plus twelve years advising the European management of Hewlett-Packard, mean his counsel is informed by how senior executives and heads of state actually decide, not how they describe themselves on stage. His positions at IMD and the University of Lausanne, alongside long board service at Sandoz Financial and Banking Holding and Le Temps, place him at the intersection of academic originality and Swiss-grade institutional discipline, an unusual combination among economic speakers. Biography highlights Founder of the IMD World Competitiveness Center and creator of the IMD World Competitiveness Yearbook, the leading annual ranking of national competitiveness since 1989. Professor Emeritus of World Competitiveness at IMD Business School and Professor Emeritus at the University of Lausanne. Former Managing Director of the World Economic Forum and the Davos Annual Meetings for 13 years. Author of Top Class Competitors (Wiley) and World Competitiveness: Rewriting the Rules of Global Prosperity (Wiley, 2025). Former Chairman of FF Sandoz Financial and Banking Holding and long-tenured Chairman of Le Temps, the leading French-language Swiss newspaper. Member of the International Olympic Committee Commission on Sustainability and Legacy, chaired by Prince Albert of Monaco. Biography Most economic commentary on the new global order describes the symptoms. Garelli wrote the underlying framework. In 1989, he founded the IMD World Competitiveness Center and created the World Competitiveness Yearbook, the first systematic annual ranking of how nations build and sustain prosperity. The Yearbook now benchmarks more than sixty economies across hundreds of indicators and remains the reference governments and multinationals reach for when they want to know where a country actually stands. His 2025 book, World Competitiveness: Rewriting the Rules of Global Prosperity, published by Wiley, extends that work into the period after the “golden era of globalization”, the four decades from China’s 1978 opening to the COVID shock. The argument is that the world will remain global but no longer united, and that competitiveness now has to be rebuilt around bloc-level alignment, industrial policy, and resilience rather than open markets. For boards setting capital allocation under sanctions, tariffs, and supply chain rewiring, this is operating guidance, not theory. The institutional spine behind the work is unusual. Thirteen years as Managing Director of the World Economic Forum and the Davos Annual Meetings, twelve years as permanent senior adviser to the European management of Hewlett-Packard, and chairmanship of FF Sandoz Financial and Banking Holding and of Le Temps, the leading French-language Swiss newspaper. He has sat on the IOC Commission on Sustainability and Legacy chaired by Prince Albert of Monaco. He has held faculty positions at IMD and the University of Lausanne, where he is Professor Emeritus at both. The credentials matter because the analysis is informed by how senior leaders actually decide, not how they describe their decisions in retrospect. The earlier Wiley book, Top Class Competitors, defined competitiveness as the ability to manage a set of disparate competencies, including education, security, brand, and individual reinvention, to achieve prosperity. The 2025 work argues that the components have changed but the discipline has not. Key speaking topics World competitiveness in a fragmented global economy The end of the golden era of globalisation National strategy under bloc-level alignment Enterprise competitiveness and value chain reconfiguration Capital allocation and country selection under fragmentation The competitiveness implications of industrial policy Ideal for Boards and executive committees rewriting global strategy under sanctions, tariffs, and bloc-level alignment. CFOs, CSOs, and corporate development leaders making country-level capital allocation decisions. Government, sovereign, and policy audiences benchmarking national competitiveness against credible peers. Senior leadership offsites where the agenda turns on what comes after the open-markets era. Audience outcomes A working frame for what competitiveness now means when blocs, not markets, set the rules. Sharper questions for the board on country exposure, supply chain dependence, and capital allocation under fragmentation. A clearer read on how industrial policy, sanctions, and multi-alignment strategies are reshaping where prosperity now accrues. The vocabulary and evidence base of the IMD World Competitiveness Yearbook applied directly to the audience’s strategic situation.

Why organisations work with Roger Myerson He is one of three living architects of mechanism design, the field that won the 2007 Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Sciences and now underpins serious thinking on auction design, procurement, regulation and incentive contracts. His revelation principle and revenue-equivalence results are not abstractions for a senior team setting bid rules, supplier contracts or commission structures. They tell you when an incentive system can be made truth-telling at all, and when no rule will work without changing the information environment. He occupies the David L. Pearson Distinguished Service Professorship in Global Conflict Studies at Chicago, which means his second body of work, on political leadership, federalism and post-conflict state-building, is directly relevant to boards exposed to weak-institution markets. His textbook Game Theory: Analysis of Conflict has trained a generation of economists, regulators and strategists, which makes him unusually effective with audiences who already speak some of the language and want the original source rather than a popularisation. Past president of both the Econometric Society and the Game Theory Society, member of the National Academy of Sciences, the American Academy of Arts and Sciences and the Council on Foreign Relations: a level of peer recognition that travels into board rooms and policy settings without further explanation. Biography highlights Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Sciences, 2007, shared with Leonid Hurwicz and Eric Maskin for the foundations of mechanism design theory. David L. Pearson Distinguished Service Professor of Global Conflict Studies, University of Chicago, with appointments in the Harris School of Public Policy and the Kenneth C. Griffin Department of Economics. PhD in applied mathematics, Harvard University, supervised by Kenneth Arrow; twenty-five years on the faculty at Northwestern’s Kellogg School of Management before moving to Chicago in 2001. Author of Game Theory: Analysis of Conflict (Harvard University Press) and Probability Models for Economic Decisions (now in a second edition with MIT Press). Past President of the Econometric Society (2009) and the Game Theory Society (2012 to 2014); Jean-Jacques Laffont Prize, 2009. Member of the National Academy of Sciences, the American Academy of Arts and Sciences, the American Philosophical Society and the Council on Foreign Relations. Biography Most rules inside an organisation are written as if everyone has the same information and roughly aligned interests. Procurement contracts, sales commissions, internal capital allocation, joint-venture terms: the rule is set, and then people behave as the rule incentivises them to behave, which is rarely what the designer intended. Mechanism design is the formal answer to that problem, and Roger Myerson is one of the three economists who built it. The 2007 Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Sciences recognised that body of work, shared with Leonid Hurwicz and Eric Maskin. Within it, two of Myerson’s results carry the most operational weight. The revelation principle tells designers when a system can in principle be made truth-telling. The revenue-equivalence theorem, derived in his auction work, tells sellers when superficially different bidding rules produce the same outcome and when they do not. Senior teams designing auctions, bid processes or contracts use these ideas whether they cite him or not. His training is Harvard, applied mathematics, supervised by Kenneth Arrow. The career sat at Northwestern’s Kellogg School for twenty-five years before he moved to the University of Chicago in 2001, where he now holds the David L. Pearson Distinguished Service Professorship in Global Conflict Studies, with joint appointments in the Harris School of Public Policy and the Griffin Department of Economics. Game Theory: Analysis of Conflict, published by Harvard University Press in 1991, remains a standard graduate text. The Pearson chair signals the second arc of his work. Over the past fifteen years he has applied the same incentive-and-information lens to political institutions: how leaders build reputations, how federal structures change the supply of credible politicians, how post-conflict states succeed or fail at building durable government. For boards with serious exposure to weak-institution markets, that is a different and rarer kind of advisor than a geopolitical commentator. Key speaking topics Mechanism design and incentive systems under asymmetric information Auction design and competitive bidding Game theory for strategy and negotiation Contract and procurement design Political economy of leadership and state-building Federalism and the design of democratic institutions Ideal for Boards and executive teams designing auctions, bid processes, procurement frameworks or major partnership contracts. CSOs, CFOs and corporate development leaders working on incentive structures, internal capital allocation or commission and bonus design. Regulators, central bank teams and policy bodies working on market design, spectrum or asset auctions, and institutional reform. Leadership teams of multinationals with substantive exposure to weak-institution or post-conflict markets. Audience outcomes A working understanding of mechanism design as a tool for setting rules when the other side knows more than you do. The ability to recognise when an auction, bid or contract structure is fighting against the information environment rather than working with it. A clearer view of where incentive design can solve a coordination problem and where the underlying information asymmetry has to be changed first. A grounded perspective on how political incentives shape the operating environment in fragile or institutionally weak markets. Direct exposure to one of the three living architects of the field, with the precision that brings to questions teams are usually forced to answer with intuition.

Why organisations work with Roger Bootle He runs the institutional view, not a commentator’s view. Capital Economics, which he founded in 1999, is one of the largest independent macroeconomic research firms in the world, and senior leaders get the house perspective directly from the source. He has been right on inflation when the consensus was wrong. The Death of Inflation, published in 1996, called the structural fall in inflation a decade before central banks adjusted their thinking, and his subsequent inflation work continues to set the contrarian benchmark. He won the 2012 Wolfson Economics Prize, the largest cash prize in economics after the Nobel, for the most credible plan to manage a eurozone exit. Boards exposed to euro-denominated risk get a serious answer, not a hot take. He sat for nearly two decades inside UK economic policymaking as Specialist Adviser to the House of Commons Treasury Committee and as a member of the Chancellor’s “Wise Men” panel. He explains the policy process from the inside. The AI Economy, his Axiom Award-winning book, gives leadership teams a proper economic reading of AI: productivity, wages, employment and welfare, not vendor narrative. Biography highlights Founder of Capital Economics, an independent macroeconomic research consultancy, which he started in 1999 Former Group Chief Economist of HSBC; earlier roles at Lloyds Bank and Capel-Cure Myers Specialist Adviser to the House of Commons Treasury Committee, 1998 to 2017 Member of the Chancellor’s panel of Independent Economic Advisers, the “Wise Men.” Winner, with the Capital Economics team, of the 2012 Wolfson Economics Prize for a eurozone exit plan Author of The Death of Inflation, The Trouble with Markets, Making a Success of Brexit, and The AI Economy (Gold, 2020 Axiom Business Book Awards) Weekly economics columnist for The Daily Telegraph; named Economics Commentator of the Year at The Comment Awards 2012 Biography The Death of Inflation appeared in 1996 and argued that the inflationary regime built into Western economies since the 1970s was structurally finished. The book sold widely, was translated into nine languages, and became the reference point for a generation of contrarian inflation analysis. It also established its author as an economist willing to take a position years before the policy consensus caught up. That author is Roger Bootle. He founded Capital Economics in 1999 and built it into one of the largest independent macroeconomic research firms in the world, serving banks, asset managers, corporates, and policymakers. Before that, he was Group Chief Economist of HSBC, with earlier roles at Lloyds Bank and Capel-Cure Myers. His public-policy work runs in parallel. He served as Specialist Adviser to the House of Commons Treasury Committee from 1998 to 2017, and was appointed to the Chancellor’s panel of Independent Economic Advisers known as the Wise Men. In 2012, he and a team from Capital Economics won the 250,000 pound Wolfson Economics Prize for the most credible plan to manage a country leaving the eurozone, and he was named Economics Commentator of the Year at The Comment Awards the same year. His more recent books extend the same approach to Brexit and AI. Making a Success of Brexit set out the economic conditions for the UK outside the EU. The AI Economy: Work, Wealth and Welfare in the Age of the Robot, which won Gold at the 2020 Axiom Business Book Awards, treats artificial intelligence as a question about productivity, wages and welfare rather than a technology story. He writes a weekly column for The Daily Telegraph. Key speaking topics Global macroeconomic outlook Inflation and monetary policy Eurozone and European economic policy Brexit and the UK economy The economics of artificial intelligence Capital markets and the policy environment Long-run productivity and growth Ideal for Boards and investment committees setting capital allocation against a volatile macro backdrop CFOs, treasurers and CIOs in financial services and corporates with rate and currency exposure Asset management and private capital firms are briefing LPs on the macro outlook Senior policy and government-relations audiences working on UK, EU and monetary policy Audience outcomes A clear reading of where inflation, rates and growth are heading, and the reasoning behind it A direct view from one of the few economists with a public track record of contrarian calls that proved right A grounded economic framing of AI’s effect on productivity, employment and wages A working understanding of how UK and European economic policy is actually made, from someone who advised inside it A perspective on the eurozone and Brexit risk that buyers can defend in front of their own committees

Why organisations work with Robert Shiller He provides Nobel-level empirical authority on asset bubbles, housing cycles, and equity valuation, the questions a board faces when deciding whether to commit capital at the top of a cycle. He named the bubbles others missed. Irrational Exuberance warned of the dot-com peak in 2000 and the housing peak before the subprime crisis, both calls now in the public record. He gives leaders the indicators they can actually use, including the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices and the CAPE ratio, both of which sit inside the standard toolkit of professional investors. His work on Narrative Economics gives boards a structured way to think about how stories move markets and consumer behaviour, which matters when sentiment shifts faster than fundamentals. He is one of the few macroeconomists who built behavioural finance into the mainstream, co-authoring Animal Spirits and Phishing for Phools with George Akerlof. Biography highlights Sterling Professor of Economics at Yale University and Fellow of the International Center for Finance at Yale School of Management. 2013 Nobel laureate in Economic Sciences, shared with Eugene Fama and Lars Peter Hansen. Co-creator of the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices and the Cyclically Adjusted Price-to-Earnings ratio (CAPE / Shiller PE). Author of Irrational Exuberance, Narrative Economics, Animal Spirits, Phishing for Phools, Finance and the Good Society, and The New Financial Order. Regular Project Syndicate columnist and former New York Times “Economic View” columnist. Narrative Economics named a Financial Times Best Book of 2019. Biography Asset prices have a habit of detaching from fundamentals long before anyone calls it a bubble. The challenge for boards and investors is recognising the moment, separating durable conviction from collective story, and acting on it. That problem has defined Robert Shiller’s working life as an empirical economist. Shiller is Sterling Professor of Economics at Yale and a Fellow at the Yale School of Management International Center for Finance. The 2013 Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Sciences, shared with Eugene Fama and Lars Peter Hansen, recognised his empirical analysis of asset prices, including the work showing that stock prices move far more than dividends justify. The implication for capital markets has shaped a generation of valuation thinking. His infrastructure sits inside the toolkit of serious investors. The S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices, developed with Karl Case, became the reference series for US housing and the basis for CME futures. The Cyclically Adjusted Price-to-Earnings ratio, built with John Campbell, gave equity investors a long-cycle valuation lens. Irrational Exuberance, first published in 2000, named the dot-com peak in real time and was updated to identify the housing bubble before the subprime crisis. The later work moved into territory most macroeconomists avoid. Animal Spirits and Phishing for Phools, both with George Akerlof, brought behavioural and psychological forces into mainstream macro. Narrative Economics, a Financial Times Best Book of 2019, made the case that the stories people tell each other about money and markets shape outcomes as much as the numbers do. For senior leaders, that is the practical question: which narratives are moving capital right now, and which ones are about to break. Key speaking topics Asset prices and market valuation Housing markets and price cycles Behavioural finance Narrative economics Bubbles and financial volatility Macroeconomic risk and forecasting Innovation in finance and risk management Ideal for Boards and investment committees making capital allocation decisions under cycle and valuation uncertainty CFOs, CIOs, and treasury leaders in banks, asset managers, and insurers Senior policymakers, central bank audiences, and regulators working on financial stability Real estate, mortgage, and housing finance leadership Audience outcomes A clearer read on where current asset prices sit relative to long-cycle valuation benchmarks like CAPE A working understanding of how narrative and sentiment translate into measurable market behaviour A sharper framework for spotting bubble dynamics before they reverse Behavioural finance applied to specific decisions on housing, equities, and credit Direct exposure to the empirical evidence behind Nobel-recognised work on asset pricing

Why organisations work with Robert Peston He is one of a very small group of UK journalists who have held the top political and economic editorial roles at both the BBC and ITV, and senior banking and political roles at the Financial Times. Few speakers can map Westminster and the City from the inside in the same conversation. He broke the Northern Rock liquidity story in September 2007; the scoop Press Gazette ranks among the greatest in British journalism. Boards get a speaker who has personally reported the front edge of the UK financial crisis, not a commentator describing it. His co-authored 2024 book, How To Run Britain, sets out a specific reform programme for the UK economy and state. He arrives with a published thesis, not a generic talk. He brings a current, weekly read on the government, the opposition and the markets, drawn from his ITV programme Peston and the podcast The Rest Is Money. Briefings are framed for what leadership teams need to decide next quarter, not for general interest. He founded Speakers for Schools, now Futures For All, which has placed thousands of senior speakers into UK state schools. Organisations working with him are working with a journalist who has built an institution. Biography highlights ITV Political Editor and presenter of Peston on ITV. Former BBC Business Editor, 2006 to 2014, and BBC Economics Editor, 2014 to 2015. Former Financial Times Political Editor, Banking Editor and founder of the FT investigations unit. Co-host with Steph McGovern of The Rest Is Money, a leading UK business and economics podcast. Author of seven books, including Who Runs Britain?, WTF?, The Whistleblower and How To Run Britain (with Kishan Koria, 2024). Founder of Speakers for Schools, rebranded Futures For All in 2025. Royal Television Society Journalist of the Year, Specialist Journalist of the Year and twice winner of Scoop of the Year; Wincott Prize winner for financial journalism. Biography The Northern Rock emergency loan from the Bank of England was reported on the BBC on 13 September 2007. The reporter on the story was Robert Peston, then Business Editor of the BBC, and Press Gazette later listed the scoop as one of the greatest in British journalism. It is the moment that defined a career already deep inside UK banking and government. Peston’s editorial track record is unusually broad for a UK journalist. He has held the top business and economics roles at the BBC, the Political Editor and Banking Editor roles at the Financial Times, and now the Political Editor role at ITV, where he also presents the weekly programme Peston. With Steph McGovern, he co-hosts The Rest Is Money, one of the most-listened-to business podcasts in the UK. The published work matters. Seven books, including Who Runs Britain?, How Do We Fix This Mess?, WTF? and the 2024 reform programme, How To Run Britain, written with Kishan Koria, set out a clear and specific argument about how the British government, banking and public finances need to change. He is one of the few national broadcast journalists who has paired live reporting with a substantive policy thesis. Outside journalism, he founded Speakers for Schools, now Futures For All, which has placed senior business, political and cultural figures into thousands of UK state-school talks since 2010. The Royal Television Society named him Journalist of the Year and Specialist Journalist of the Year for his coverage of the credit crunch; he has also won the Wincott Prize for financial journalism. He is among the very few UK speakers who can describe the British political economy from inside the BBC, ITV, the FT and the Treasury press lobby. Key speaking topics UK political and economic outlook Westminster, government and policy direction Banking, financial regulation and financial crisis Public finances, tax and fiscal policy Inequality and the social contract in Britain Geopolitics and UK exposure Leadership in political and institutional reform Ideal for Boards and executive teams setting UK capital allocation, hiring and investment plans Banking, asset management and insurance leadership audiences Public affairs, policy and government relations leads Annual conferences seeking a senior, named UK political and economic read Audience outcomes A current, named read on the UK government, the opposition and the likely policy direction A clear view of where banking, fiscal and regulatory risk sits for UK-exposed organisations An informed sense of the political and social pressures shaping the British economy Direct answers to leadership questions through Q and A with a working political editor

Why organisations work with Paolo Surico He has shown, using household and firm micro-data, that most of the consumption response to interest rates comes from mortgaged households, which is the single most useful framing for any business modelling consumer demand under a rate cycle. His American Economic Review paper on the long-run effects of government spending was cited in the UK Chancellor’s Spring Statement, which is rare evidence that academic work has moved actual fiscal policy. His advisory portfolio with the Bank of England, European Central Bank, European Commission, and Financial Conduct Authority means he reads central bank communications from the inside, not as a commentator. His ESRC GBP 1 million grant and ERC Starting Grant put him in the top tier of European macroeconomists by independent funder validation. He translates technical macro into language a non-economist board can use, which is the reason financial services and professional services firms book him repeatedly. Biography highlights Professor of Economics, London Business School Fellow of the Centre for Economic Policy Research; Research Associate, LSE Centre for Macroeconomics Co-author, “The Long-Run Effects of Government Spending,” American Economic Review (2025), cited in the UK Chancellor’s Spring Statement Awarded a GBP 1 million ESRC grant for “Long-Run Consequences of Business-Cycle Fluctuations”; recipient of an ERC Starting Grant Former Adviser to the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee; consultant to the European Central Bank, European Commission, and Financial Conduct Authority Regular contributor and commentator in the Financial Times, The Economist, Il Sole 24 Ore, and Corriere della Sera Biography Most macroeconomic commentary stops at the aggregate. Surico’s work begins where it usually ends: with the household and the firm. Using micro-data from the US and UK, he has shown that mortgaged households drive most of the consumption response to interest rate changes, while outright owners barely move at all. That finding has reframed how central banks think about transmission, and it gives commercial leaders something more useful than a forecast. His 2025 American Economic Review paper with Juan Antolin-Diaz, “The Long-Run Effects of Government Spending,” used 125 years of US data to show that military and public R&D spending produce large, persistent growth effects through their composition, not their size. The paper was cited in the UK Chancellor’s Spring Statement, which is an unusually direct line between academic research and fiscal policy. The credentials are substantial. Fellow of CEPR, Research Associate at the LSE Centre for Macroeconomics, former Adviser to the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee, current consultant to the European Central Bank and European Commission. A GBP 1 million ESRC grant and an ERC Starting Grant sit behind the academic record. He writes regularly for the Financial Times, The Economist, and the major Italian financial press. What sets him apart for boardroom audiences is the bridge he builds between empirical macro and decisions a leadership team has to make this quarter. When he talks about household debt, demographic change, or the redistributive effects of monetary policy, the argument lands in concrete terms that a CFO, a head of strategy, or a wealth-management chief can act on. Key speaking topics Monetary policy transmission and household debt Public debt sustainability and fiscal outlook Government spending, innovation, and long-run growth Inequality and the macroeconomy Housing, credit, and financial markets Demographic change and macroeconomic policy Ideal for CFO, treasury, and finance leadership teams in financial services, asset management, and insurance Boards and executive committees stress-testing strategy against rate, fiscal, and policy scenarios Wealth and private banking client events where senior clients want substantive macro analysis Strategy and economic-policy functions in industrials, real estate, and consumer-facing sectors Audience outcomes A clearer view of how rate decisions actually move through mortgaged households, renters, and balance sheets, rather than aggregate models A framework for reading central bank communications from the inside of the policy process Specific implications of public debt and government spending trajectories for medium-term growth and capital allocation A grounded read on inequality as a macroeconomic amplifier, not a social commentary point

Why organisations work with Oliver Kamm He has lived on both sides of the analyst’s desk. Twenty years at the Bank of England, HSBC Securities and Commerzbank Securities, then sixteen years and counting writing The Times leaders on economics and foreign affairs. He reads the data the way a strategist does and frames it the way an editor does. His weekly Times economics column is a primary reference point for British policy debate, which means audiences are hearing the same analysis Westminster, the City and Whitehall are reading the next morning. Authored Accidence Will Happen, endorsed by Steven Pinker as “a unique and indispensable guide to usage”, a credential that signals the rigour he brings to argument and language as well as numbers. He moves cleanly between keynote, panel moderation and after-dinner formats, which lets a single booking cover macro briefing, on-stage interrogation of a CEO and a sharper closing address. Biography highlights Leader writer and columnist at The Times since 2008, covering economics and international affairs. Twenty-year City career: Bank of England, HSBC Securities (European Equity Strategist), Commerzbank Securities (Head of Strategic Research) and founder of WMG Advisors LLP. Author of Anti-Totalitarianism (Social Affairs Unit, 2005), Accidence Will Happen (W&N, 2015) and Mending the Mind (2021). Regular contributor on Newsnight, The Today Programme, Channel 4 News, The Daily Politics, Radio 5 Live and Sky News. Bylines in The Guardian, Prospect, The New York Times and The Jewish Chronicle. Educated at New College, Oxford and Birkbeck College, University of London. Biography The case for booking a serious economics voice for a senior audience usually comes down to translation. Boards are not short of data. They are short of a credible reader of the data who can take a position without flinching, and explain it in language a non-economist will repeat in a meeting the next day. That is the role Kamm has occupied at The Times since 2008. He writes a twice-weekly economics column and is the paper’s principal leader writer on economics and international affairs, which means his analysis sits inside the daily editorial line of one of the few British newspapers still read across Westminster, the City and Whitehall. Before journalism he spent two decades inside the markets he now writes about. Bank of England, HSBC Securities as European Equity Strategist, Commerzbank Securities as Head of Strategic Research, then WMG Advisors LLP, which he founded in 2004. The City background shapes how he reads policy. Capital flows, currency exposure and the actual mechanics of investment decisions are not abstractions when he speaks about them. He is also a working author outside economics. Accidence Will Happen, his 2015 guide to English usage drawn from his Times “Pedant” column, was praised by Steven Pinker for relying on “scholarship rather than dogma”. Mending the Mind followed in 2021. The range matters: it is the reason he holds a room as moderator or after-dinner speaker as confidently as he does in a macro keynote. Key speaking topics Global economy and macro outlook International politics and policy The British economy and public policy Markets, capital flows and the City Media, journalism and editorial judgement Language, communication and clear writing Ideal for Boards and executive committees taking capital allocation or geographic-exposure decisions under macro and geopolitical uncertainty CFOs, treasurers and risk leads briefing internal audiences on the British and global outlook Conference programme owners needing one person to keynote, moderate the CEO panel and close the dinner Audience outcomes A clear, defensible read of the current macro and geopolitical picture, framed for non-economists A working sense of which signals in financial markets and policy actually matter for the year ahead Sharper questions to ask of internal economics and strategy briefings Confidence in the editorial framing of the company’s own external communication on economics and policy

Why organisations work with Ning Zhu A specific thesis on China, not a country briefing. China’s Guaranteed Bubble argues that implicit state support is the load-bearing feature of Chinese growth, and the source of its systemic risk. Audiences leave with a frame they can actually use. One of the few China-economy voices with peer-reviewed standing in the Journal of Finance and Review of Financial Studies, which means his macro reading is built on disciplined empirical work, not commentary. Operating experience inside Lehman Brothers and Nomura in Hong Kong, so the talk is calibrated to how capital allocators and quantitative desks actually think, not to a classroom audience. Behavioural finance fluency that translates into how Chinese retail investors, regulators and state-owned enterprises behave under pressure. This is rare combined with macro authority on the same market. Faculty Fellow status at Yale’s International Center for Finance and senior faculty roles at SAIF and Tsinghua, which gives him standing across Chinese policy circles and Western financial institutions in equal measure. Biography highlights Deputy Dean and Professor of Finance, Shanghai Advanced Institute of Finance (SAIF), Shanghai Jiao Tong University. Faculty Fellow, Yale University International Center for Finance. Author of China’s Guaranteed Bubble (McGraw-Hill), The Investors’ Enemy and The Investors’ Friend. Sun Yefang Financial Innovation Book Award, 2018. Named among Elsevier’s “China’s Most Cited Scholars,” 2022. Former Senior Executive at Lehman Brothers and Nomura Securities, Hong Kong, leading quantitative and portfolio advisory teams. Former tenured Professor of Finance at the University of California (Davis) and Chair Professor at Tsinghua University. Biography China’s economy does not behave like a textbook market. Implicit state guarantees underpin large parts of its credit system, shaping how banks lend, how households save, and how risk migrates into shadow channels. China’s Guaranteed Bubble, published by McGraw-Hill, sets out that argument in detail and is the work that defines Ning Zhu’s public profile. Zhu sits at the intersection of academic finance and operating practice. He is Deputy Dean and Professor of Finance at the Shanghai Advanced Institute of Finance, Shanghai Jiao Tong University, and a Faculty Fellow at the Yale International Center for Finance. His peer-reviewed work has appeared in the Journal of Finance, the Review of Financial Studies and Management Science, with a particular focus on behavioural finance and Chinese capital markets. Before returning to academia full-time, he was a Senior Executive at Lehman Brothers and then Nomura in Hong Kong, where he led quantitative strategy and portfolio advisory teams. That period gives his China commentary a useful directness: he has sat on the desk that has to act on the analysis, not only write it. He has also held tenured and chair appointments at the University of California, Davis and Tsinghua University. His work has been recognised with the Sun Yefang Financial Innovation Book Award, considered one of the highest honours in Chinese economics, and inclusion on Elsevier’s list of China’s most cited scholars. For boards and investors, the value is the combination: a researcher whose behavioural finance training shows him how investors and regulators actually behave, applied to the Chinese system he has studied and worked in for two decades. Key speaking topics China’s macroeconomy and financial system Implicit state guarantees and systemic risk Behavioural finance Shadow banking and credit risk in China Global financial order and capital flows Chinese investor and household behaviour Fiscal sustainability and financial reform Ideal for Boards, CFOs and CIOs with material China exposure assessing systemic risk Investment committees, asset managers and family offices allocating to or away from Chinese assets Banking and financial services leadership teams shaping China strategy Policy and regulatory audiences working on cross-border capital and financial reform Audience outcomes A working model for how implicit state guarantees shape Chinese credit, equity and property markets A clearer view of where systemic risk actually sits inside China’s shadow banking and SOE structures A behavioural finance lens applied to Chinese retail investors and institutional decision-makers A more disciplined reading of Chinese policy signals and what they imply for capital allocation Specific questions a board or investment committee should be asking about its China exposure

Why organisations work with Michael Wilson He has interviewed chancellors, central bank governors, FTSE chief executives and finance ministers on live television for more than three decades, which is the exact skill set a panel on macro policy or market structure needs in the chair. He was a founder of Sky News in 1989 and built its business unit from scratch, which gives him an operator’s read on how a story moves between newsroom, market and boardroom. He co-authored Fixing Britain: The Business of Reshaping Our Nation with Lord Digby Jones, so he can speak with authority on UK industrial policy, productivity and reform rather than only commenting on it. The World Economic Forum named him Business Broadcaster of the Year, recognition that travels well with international investor and corporate audiences. Inside FTSE 100 and 250 boards he has worked as a media coach and mentor, which means a moderating brief comes with an instinct for what a CEO will say, will not say, and needs help saying. Biography highlights Founder member of Sky Television, 1989, and creator of the channel’s business unit. Business Editor of Sky News for around twenty years, anchoring Budget specials and major financial events through to 2009. Co-author with Lord Digby Jones of Fixing Britain: The Business of Reshaping Our Nation (Wiley, 2011). Voted Business Broadcaster of the Year by the World Economic Forum. Made a Freeman of the City of London in 2006. Visiting Fellow at Cranfield School of Management; currently Director of Business and Economics Editor at Arise News with regular commentary on GB News. Biography Sky News did not have a business unit when it launched in 1989. Michael Wilson built it. As a founder member of the channel, he set up the desk, the contact book and the editorial line that turned Sky into a credible voice on markets, the City and the British economy through the Lawson boom, the ERM crisis and the long period of growth that followed. He stayed for two decades as Business Editor, anchoring Budgets, rate decisions and the financial reporting cycle from the floor of the exchange to the steps of the Treasury. Before Sky he worked at Thames Television and helped found The City Programme in 1987. Since 2009 he has broadcast across BBC, ITV, Fox News, Al Jazeera and LBC, and he now serves as Director of Business and Economics Editor at Arise News with regular commentary slots on GB News. His authority on the substance, not only the craft, is documented. He co-wrote Fixing Britain: The Business of Reshaping Our Nation with Lord Digby Jones, published by Wiley in 2011, an argument for industrial reform rooted in conversations with British business leaders. He holds a Visiting Fellowship at Cranfield School of Management and was made a Freeman of the City of London in 2006. What corporate buyers tend to commission is the chairing and hosting work that sits on top of all this. He has run media training and mentoring inside FTSE 100 and 250 companies for years, which is why he can move between a serious investor Q and A, a panel of finance ministers, and a thousand-person black-tie audience without changing register, and bring each one back on time. Key speaking topics Business and economics broadcasting craft UK economic policy and the City Financial markets and monetary policy Corporate communications and media performance Conference moderation and on-stage interviewing After-dinner business commentary Industrial policy and productivity reform Ideal for Annual conferences, investor days and corporate AGMs that need a chair across macro, markets and corporate strategy. CEO and CFO communications teams looking for media coaching from a working broadcaster. Financial services and City audiences at flagship events, awards dinners and member functions. International investor and policy audiences where a recognised business broadcaster adds credibility to the chair. Audience outcomes A live read on the day’s market and policy news from someone who has spent decades interpreting it on air. A chairing performance that keeps panels on time, on subject and audible to a non-specialist room. A working briefing on how the City, the Treasury and the broadcast newsroom interact. A grounded view of UK industrial policy and reform drawn from his book with Lord Digby Jones. An after-dinner perspective that treats markets and economics as stories, not slides.

Why organisations work with Maurice Obstfeld He has sat at the top of the global policy table. As IMF Chief Economist from 2015 to 2018 and a member of the US Council of Economic Advisers from 2014 to 2015, he has been inside the rooms where currency, trade and crisis decisions were made. His scholarship is the textbook on his subject. International Economics: Theory and Policy, co-authored with Paul Krugman and Marc Melitz, is the standard text in the field; Foundations of International Macroeconomics, with Kenneth Rogoff, is the doctoral reference. Audiences are hearing from the person who wrote the book. He links the three dossiers most boards keep separate. Tariffs, the dollar and fiscal deficits are usually discussed in isolation. Obstfeld treats them as one operating system and shows how a move on one alters the others. The American Economic Association named him a Distinguished Fellow in 2023, a recognition reserved for the discipline’s most consequential contributors. The credential signals serious intellectual standing in a room where that matters. He is currently writing on the dollar’s standing. His 2025 work for Project Syndicate, Brookings and CEPR examines how trade policy and fiscal choices are stress-testing the dollar’s reserve role. Audiences get a current, not a retrospective, reading. Biography highlights C. Fred Bergsten Senior Fellow, Peterson Institute for International Economics, since 2019; named to the chair in 2023. Chief Economist (Economic Counsellor) and Director of Research at the International Monetary Fund, 2015 to 2018. Member, US President’s Council of Economic Advisers, 2014 to 2015. Class of 1958 Professor of Economics Emeritus, University of California, Berkeley. Co-author, International Economics: Theory and Policy (Pearson, with Krugman and Melitz) and Foundations of International Macroeconomics (MIT Press, with Rogoff). AEA Distinguished Fellow (2023); Fellow of the Econometric Society and the American Academy of Arts and Sciences; recipient of the Tjalling Koopmans Asset Award, the John von Neumann Award, and the Bernhard Harms Prize. Biography The dollar’s reserve role, the global tariff regime and the independence of central banks were treated for three decades as settled architecture. They are now contested, and boards making capital allocation decisions need to understand the system, not just the cycle. Few economists are better placed to read it than Maurice Obstfeld. Obstfeld served as Chief Economist of the International Monetary Fund from 2015 to 2018, directing the institution’s Research Department through a period of trade tension, capital flow volatility and rising fiscal pressure across advanced economies. He joined the IMF directly from the US Council of Economic Advisers, where he served as a member under President Obama. Before that he held the Class of 1958 Chair in Economics at UC Berkeley, where he taught from 1989 to 2023 and is now emeritus. His scholarly contribution sits behind much of how the discipline now teaches and practises open economy macroeconomics. International Economics: Theory and Policy, co-authored with Paul Krugman and Marc Melitz, is the standard textbook in the field. Foundations of International Macroeconomics, with Kenneth Rogoff, has been the doctoral reference since 1996. The American Economic Association recognised this body of work in 2023 with the Distinguished Fellow honour. Today he is C. Fred Bergsten Senior Fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics, writing actively on how tariffs, fiscal deficits and pressure on central bank independence are reshaping the international monetary system. His 2025 essay “King Dollar’s Shaky Crown” for Project Syndicate, his Brookings paper on the US trade deficit, and CEPR Discussion Paper 20104 set out the case directly. The argument is that trust in the system can be destroyed quickly and rebuilt only slowly, and that capital allocators should be reading these signals now. Key speaking topics The international monetary system and the future of dollar dominance Tariffs, trade policy and the global economy Exchange rates, capital flows and currency risk Fiscal deficits, public debt and macroeconomic policy Central bank independence and monetary policy Financial crises and global financial stability China, the euro area and the architecture of the global economy Ideal for Boards, CIOs and treasury teams setting capital allocation policy under currency and trade uncertainty CFOs and investment committees in financial services, asset management and multinational corporates Senior policy audiences in central banks, finance ministries and sovereign wealth funds Economic and strategy briefings for executive committees with material cross-border exposure Audience outcomes A current reading of how tariffs, fiscal policy and currency dynamics are connected as one operating system A clear view of the specific risks to the dollar’s reserve role and what would have to change for them to materialise A framework for thinking about capital allocation when the rules of the international monetary system are under political pressure Reference points from inside the IMF and the US Council of Economic Advisers on how policy actually moves Citable language and named arguments senior leaders can carry back into their own board discussions

Why organisations work with Martin Baily He has held the chair that briefs a US president on the economy. Few speakers can describe how macro policy, financial regulation and productivity actually intersect from inside that seat. His current Brookings work with Federal Reserve Board economists on generative AI as a general-purpose technology gives boards a sober, evidence-led read on the productivity case, distinct from vendor and consultancy framing. Twenty years inside the McKinsey Global Institute on cross-country productivity research means he can tell a European board how its growth problem differs from the US one, with the data to back it. As co-chair of the Bipartisan Policy Center’s Financial Regulatory Reform Initiative and a member of the Squam Lake Group, he reads the financial regulation agenda the way an operator does, not the way a lobbyist does. His written record, from “Innovation and the Productivity Crisis” to “Transforming the European Economy”, gives clients a referenceable thesis, not a deck. Biography highlights Chairman, President’s Council of Economic Advisers, 1999 to 2001, and Cabinet member under President Bill Clinton. Senior Fellow Emeritus, Brookings Institution; Bernard L. Schwartz Chair in Economic Policy Development. Co-author, “Transforming the European Economy” (Peterson Institute, 2004), Choice Outstanding Academic Title 2005. Co-author, “Innovation and the Productivity Crisis” (Brookings Institution Press, 1988). Principal, McKinsey & Company’s Global Institute (1996 to 1999); senior advisor to the McKinsey Global Institute since 2002. Co-chair, Financial Regulatory Reform Initiative, Bipartisan Policy Center; senior advisor, Albright Stonebridge Group. Biography Productivity growth is the variable that decides whether wages can rise, debt is sustainable, and capital earns a return. It has been weak across most advanced economies for two decades, and the explanation is contested. Martin Baily has spent his career inside that contest, from the White House, from McKinsey’s Global Institute, and from Brookings. He chaired President Clinton’s Council of Economic Advisers from 1999 to 2001 and sat on the Council from 1994. He holds the Bernard L. Schwartz Chair in Economic Policy Development at Brookings and is a senior advisor to the McKinsey Global Institute, where he was a principal in the late 1990s during the Institute’s foundational comparative productivity work. His co-authored books, “Innovation and the Productivity Crisis” with Alok Chakrabarti and “Transforming the European Economy” with Jacob Funk Kirkegaard, set out a consistent thesis: productivity weakness is rarely a single mechanical problem; it is the cumulative drag of weak innovation diffusion, protected incumbents and policy that subsidises stasis. The European book was named a Choice Outstanding Academic Title in 2005. Recent work at Brookings, with Federal Reserve Board economists David Byrne and Eugenio Soto and Brookings colleague Aidan Kane, examines whether generative AI qualifies as a general-purpose technology and where, in finance and other sectors, the productivity dividend will actually land. He co-chairs the Bipartisan Policy Center’s Financial Regulatory Reform Initiative and sits in the Squam Lake Group of financial economists who write on systemic risk and reform. Key speaking topics US and global productivity growth Financial regulation and systemic risk The macroeconomic case for generative AI US economic policy and the Federal budget outlook European competitiveness and structural reform Social Security and pension reform Ideal for Boards and audit committees pricing financial regulation and macro risk into strategy CFOs and chief economists at banks, insurers and asset managers Senior policy and government affairs leadership tracking US economic policy Strategy and transformation leaders building the AI productivity business case Audience outcomes A clear read on where productivity growth is actually coming from, and where it is not A grounded view on which generative AI productivity claims are supported by evidence and which are not An informed perspective on the live US financial regulatory agenda and its implications for capital and risk A comparative frame for European versus US growth performance and the policies that move it