Previsão Económica
Economistas e analistas que descodificam o que os dados realmente significam para mercados, políticas e negócios
Speakers Associates represents 71 speakers on Previsão Económica, including Marcelo Carvalho, Dan Walters, Calum Chace, Geoff Cutmore, Horst Köhler, Kwasi Kwarteng, Daniel Lacalle, Blanca Moreno-Dodson, Dominic O'Connell e Paul Johnson.
Boards are setting strategy against a macro backdrop they no longer feel they fully understand. Rate shocks, bank failures, unfunded pension liabilities and foreign ownership of critical UK assets have moved from the business pages to the risk register. Leaders want an economic lens that connects what is actually happening in markets and Whitehall to the decisions in front of them.
Boards are being asked to set capital allocation, pricing and geographic strategy inside a macro regime that no longer behaves like the one they built their planning assumptions around. Central bank policy, geopolitical fracture and the long tail of successive financial crises have made the old rules unreliable, but most leadership teams still rely on forecasts that treat each shock as an anomaly. What they need is a coherent reading of how the system itself has changed, and what that means for the next decade of decisions.
Global economic decisions are increasingly political – and the gap between what institutions say and what governments can actually deliver is where business risk lives. Boards that treat fiscal policy as a technical backdrop miss the real question: who holds power, what constraints they face, and how those constraints shape the economic environment their organisations operate in. The difference between a credible fiscal framework and a fragile one does not announce itself in advance.
Capital, trade, and regulation no longer move in the same direction. Boards are making decade-long commitments in Asia while the rules governing cross-border finance, Chinese policy, and US oversight shift underneath them. The question is no longer how to forecast the next cycle. It is how to build a strategy that survives competing financial systems.
Inflation, interest rates and financial regulation now move faster than most leadership teams can interpret them. Boards need someone who can take a central bank decision, a supply shock or a fresh enforcement action and explain what it actually means for capital, pricing and risk, without jargon and without dumbing it down. The gap is rarely information. It is translation at the level a chief executive can act on.
Boards are taking strategic decisions against a financial backdrop most leadership teams no longer feel fluent in. Interest rates, pensions liabilities, corporate governance and market sentiment have all moved from the finance function to the top of the agenda. Senior teams want a reading of the City, the economy and the press coverage around them that connects to the decisions they are actually making.
European boards are planning around an economy whose demographic and fiscal baseline is shifting under them. Pension liabilities, labour supply, and public debt are moving in directions that make the next decade of workforce and investment assumptions unreliable. Leadership teams need a macro reading they can trust before they commit capital or restructure benefits.
Climate and sustainability commitments now sit on every board agenda, but the spending behind them rarely survives a serious cost-benefit test. Leadership teams are asked to allocate capital across decarbonisation, ESG reporting, resilience, and broader social goals with competing claims on every pound. The question they cannot always answer is which interventions produce the most measurable human and economic return for the money committed.
Governments and companies are operating in an economic order where capital, tax bases and trade flows no longer behave the way the old policy models assumed. Boards face exposure to fiscal instability, regional fragmentation and a tax architecture that is being rewritten in real time. Most leadership teams lack a credible interpreter who has worked inside the multilateral system and can translate macro shifts into operating decisions.
Most boards now accept that AI will change their business. Few have a defensible view on what it changes first, what it changes structurally, and what it does to the labour model their P&L assumes. The gap between accepting AI as a trend and treating it as a strategic variable is where serious organisations are exposed.
Boards and executive teams are being asked to commit capital to energy transition, industrial strategy, and European market exposure while the underlying policy framework keeps shifting under their feet. Reading the macro signals correctly, and separating durable reform from political noise, is now a strategic function, not an economist’s footnote. The cost of getting the read wrong is years of misallocated investment.
California sets the rules that the rest of the United States and a sizable share of global business eventually has to comply with. Most leaders read the headlines and miss the machinery: which legislators move which bills, which lobbies win, which initiatives reach the ballot, which budget lines are real. That gap between reported politics and operating politics is where strategy goes wrong.
All speakers on Previsão Económica
- Alex Brummer
- Anatole Kaletsky
- Andres Velasco
- Andrew Sheng
- Andrew Verity
- Anthony Hilton
- Bert Rürup
- Bjørn Lomborg
- Blanca Moreno-Dodson
- Calum Chace
- Christoph M. Schmidt
- Dan Walters
- Dani Rodrik
- Daniel Gros
- Daniel Lacalle
- Daniel Thorniley
Show all 71 speakers
- David Smith
- Desmond Lachman
- Dominic O'Connell
- Ernesto Zedillo
- Eugene Fama
- Ewald Nowotny
- Fraser Nelson
- Geoff Cutmore
- George Papandreou
- Gerard Lyons
- Graeme Leach
- Graham Weale
- Harold James
- Horst Köhler
- Huang Yiping
- Ian Goldin
- Jacques Attali
- James Galbraith
- Janusz Antoni Lewandowski
- Jens Weidmann
- Jeremy Siegel
- Jeroen Dijsselbloem
- Jim Rogers
- Jürgen Stark
- Klisman Murati
- Kwasi Kwarteng
- Lars P Feld
- Linda Yueh
- Luiz Barroso
- Marcelo Carvalho
- Marek Marian Belka
- Maria Bartiromo
- Martin Baily
- Maurice Obstfeld
- Michael Wilson
- Ning Zhu
- Oliver Kamm
- Paolo Surico
- Paul Johnson
- Pippa Malmgren
- Robert Peston
- Robert Shiller
- Roger Bootle
- Roger Myerson
- Ruchir Sharma
- Shang-Jin Wei
- Stephane Garelli
- Steven Sitao Xu
- Sung Won Sohn
- Susan HayesCulleton
- Thomas Piketty
- Trevor Williams
- Will Hutton
- Xiao Geng
- Zhang Jun