Economic Forecasting

Why organisations work with Martin Baily He has held the chair that briefs a US president on the economy. Few speakers can describe how macro policy, financial regulation and productivity actually intersect from inside that seat. His current Brookings work with Federal Reserve Board economists on generative AI as a general-purpose technology gives boards a sober, evidence-led read on the productivity case, distinct from vendor and consultancy framing. Twenty years inside the McKinsey Global Institute on cross-country productivity research means he can tell a European board how its growth problem differs from the US one, with the data to back it. As co-chair of the Bipartisan Policy Center’s Financial Regulatory Reform Initiative and a member of the Squam Lake Group, he reads the financial regulation agenda the way an operator does, not the way a lobbyist does. His written record, from “Innovation and the Productivity Crisis” to “Transforming the European Economy”, gives clients a referenceable thesis, not a deck. Biography highlights Chairman, President’s Council of Economic Advisers, 1999 to 2001, and Cabinet member under President Bill Clinton. Senior Fellow Emeritus, Brookings Institution; Bernard L. Schwartz Chair in Economic Policy Development. Co-author, “Transforming the European Economy” (Peterson Institute, 2004), Choice Outstanding Academic Title 2005. Co-author, “Innovation and the Productivity Crisis” (Brookings Institution Press, 1988). Principal, McKinsey & Company’s Global Institute (1996 to 1999); senior advisor to the McKinsey Global Institute since 2002. Co-chair, Financial Regulatory Reform Initiative, Bipartisan Policy Center; senior advisor, Albright Stonebridge Group. Biography Productivity growth is the variable that decides whether wages can rise, debt is sustainable, and capital earns a return. It has been weak across most advanced economies for two decades, and the explanation is contested. Martin Baily has spent his career inside that contest, from the White House, from McKinsey’s Global Institute, and from Brookings. He chaired President Clinton’s Council of Economic Advisers from 1999 to 2001 and sat on the Council from 1994. He holds the Bernard L. Schwartz Chair in Economic Policy Development at Brookings and is a senior advisor to the McKinsey Global Institute, where he was a principal in the late 1990s during the Institute’s foundational comparative productivity work. His co-authored books, “Innovation and the Productivity Crisis” with Alok Chakrabarti and “Transforming the European Economy” with Jacob Funk Kirkegaard, set out a consistent thesis: productivity weakness is rarely a single mechanical problem; it is the cumulative drag of weak innovation diffusion, protected incumbents and policy that subsidises stasis. The European book was named a Choice Outstanding Academic Title in 2005. Recent work at Brookings, with Federal Reserve Board economists David Byrne and Eugenio Soto and Brookings colleague Aidan Kane, examines whether generative AI qualifies as a general-purpose technology and where, in finance and other sectors, the productivity dividend will actually land. He co-chairs the Bipartisan Policy Center’s Financial Regulatory Reform Initiative and sits in the Squam Lake Group of financial economists who write on systemic risk and reform. Key speaking topics US and global productivity growth Financial regulation and systemic risk The macroeconomic case for generative AI US economic policy and the Federal budget outlook European competitiveness and structural reform Social Security and pension reform Ideal for Boards and audit committees pricing financial regulation and macro risk into strategy CFOs and chief economists at banks, insurers and asset managers Senior policy and government affairs leadership tracking US economic policy Strategy and transformation leaders building the AI productivity business case Audience outcomes A clear read on where productivity growth is actually coming from, and where it is not A grounded view on which generative AI productivity claims are supported by evidence and which are not An informed perspective on the live US financial regulatory agenda and its implications for capital and risk A comparative frame for European versus US growth performance and the policies that move it

Why organisations work with Lars P Feld He helped design the constitutional framework leaders are now operating under. As an expert to Federalism Commission II in 2007, he contributed directly to the architecture of Germany’s debt brake, and his subsequent empirical work is the standard reference on its effects. He sat at the centre of German economic policymaking for a decade. Ten years on the German Council of Economic Experts, ending as chairman, and then three years as personal advisor to Federal Finance Minister Christian Lindner, give him a working knowledge of how German fiscal decisions actually get made. He brings ordoliberal economics to questions where most macro commentary is purely Keynesian or markets-driven. His co-authored work on ordoliberalism and the eurozone crisis is the reference text for understanding why Berlin negotiates the way it does. His authority is institutional, not media-built. Gustav-Stolper-Prize, Leopoldina membership, Kronberger Kreis, an honorary doctorate from Lucerne and the Friedrich-List-Medal place him in a small group of economists whose published positions move German policy debate. Biography highlights Chair for Economic Policy and Constitutional Economics, Albert-Ludwigs-University of Freiburg, since 2010. President of the Walter Eucken Institute, Freiburg. Member of the German Council of Economic Experts, 2011 to 2021, and chairman in 2020 to 2021. Personal economic policy advisor to Federal Finance Minister Christian Lindner, February 2022 to November 2024. Scientific Advisory Board, Federal Ministry of Finance, since 2003; Minimum Wage Commission member since 2020. Gustav-Stolper-Prize (2021); honorary doctorate, University of Lucerne (2017); Friedrich-List-Medal (2023); member of Leopoldina, Kronberger Kreis and Mont Pelerin Society. Biography Germany rewrote its constitution in 2009 to limit federal borrowing. Feld was one of the academic experts who fed that reform, sitting on Federalism Commission II and arguing the case for a binding fiscal rule. His later empirical work, including a synthetic-control evaluation co-authored with researchers at the Walter Eucken Institute, is now the reference analysis of what the debt brake actually did to German public finances in the decade that followed. That mix of constitutional design and quantitative evaluation runs through his career. From the Chair for Economic Policy and Constitutional Economics in Freiburg, and as President of the Walter Eucken Institute, he works inside the ordoliberal tradition that has shaped how Berlin negotiates inside the eurozone. His co-authored paper on ordoliberalism, pragmatism and the eurozone crisis is one of the more cited explanations of why German positions on Greek debt, Italian deficits and ECB intervention took the shape they did. He has spent a decade in the centre of German policymaking. Ten years on the German Council of Economic Experts, ending as chairman in 2020 to 2021, gave him a direct hand in the Council’s annual reports to the federal government. From February 2022 to November 2024, he served as personal economic policy advisor to Finance Minister Christian Lindner, a role that sits at the intersection of the ministry, the coalition and the Bundesbank. The institutional recognition has followed. The Gustav-Stolper-Prize in 2021, regarded inside the Verein fuer Socialpolitik as the most prestigious German economics award, sits alongside Leopoldina membership, the Kronberger Kreis, the Friedrich-List-Medal and an honorary doctorate from the University of Lucerne. For a boardroom audience trying to understand where German and European fiscal policy is going, he is one of the small number of economists whose published positions still move the debate. Key speaking topics The German debt brake and European fiscal rules Sovereign debt sustainability in the eurozone Ordoliberalism and German economic policy Macroeconomic outlook for Germany and the EU Public finance and federalism Minimum wage policy and labour market regulation The political economy of EU reform Ideal for CFOs, group treasurers and chief economists making capital allocation decisions exposed to eurozone sovereign risk. Bank and asset manager boards with material German or EU government bond exposure. CEOs and strategy leads of industrial groups whose investment cases turn on German fiscal trajectory and energy and infrastructure spending. Policy and government relations leads tracking the German coalition, the EU Stability and Growth Pact, and ECB policy. Audience outcomes A clear read on where the German debt brake debate is heading and what changes are politically feasible. A working model of how Berlin will negotiate inside the EU on fiscal rules, common debt and ECB policy. A sharper view of which sovereign and quasi-sovereign exposures are most sensitive to the next phase of European fiscal reform. An informed account of the ordoliberal tradition behind German policy positions, useful for anyone modelling counterparty or political risk in the eurozone.

Why organisations work with Klisman Murati The Global Power Index, a proprietary quantitative model assessing 194 countries across ten dimensions of national power and 30 years of data. Clients drawing on it include NATO, the European Commission, Shell, JP Morgan, and HSBC. A documented forecasting record. The GPI signalled Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and Germany’s 2024 recession before consensus, and informs the way shipping, energy, and capital-allocation leaders read their geopolitical exposure. Two frameworks that give boards a shared language for hard problems: geo-risk, his term for reading political, technological, demographic, and capital forces as one compounding system, and segmented polarity, his alternative to the developed and emerging categories for seeing where capability is actually accumulating. A live read on where power is moving rather than a retrospective. He brings specific current calls, from Gulf capital as a new power centre to India’s climb from 24th to 6th on the index since 1994, and why blocs like BRICS cohere in some domains and fragment in others. A multidisciplinary lens that single-discipline analysts cannot replicate. His training spans anthropology, political economy, energy policy, security studies, and financial crime, which is what allows him to read AI, protectionism, capital flows, and demographic change as one connected system. Biography highlights Founder and CEO of Pareto Economics, the London-based strategic intelligence firm behind the Global Power Index Creator of the Global Power Index, built on 88 variables and more than 500,000 data points, with a methodology developed alongside Dr Karim Abadir, Emeritus Professor of Financial Econometrics at Imperial College London Originator of the geo-risk and segmented polarity frameworks, the latter set out in his macro thesis How to Think in First Principles About Global Affairs and the basis of his forthcoming book, Segmented Polarity: Why the World’s Most Important Economies Are Being Dangerously Misread Forecasts arriving ahead of consensus include Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and Germany’s 2024 recession Clients include NATO, the European Commission, Shell, JP Morgan, HSBC, Vanguard, Telia, and Stena Bulk, with audiences in more than 120 countries Visiting Professor at the Helsinki Geoeconomics Institute; commentator across BBC, Al Jazeera, CGTN, the Financial Times, and Investment Week; author of more than 250 published articles Biography Pareto Economics called Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and Germany’s 2024 recession ahead of consensus. Behind those calls sits the Global Power Index, a proprietary model of 194 countries built on more than 85 variables and over half a million data points across 30 years. Klisman Murati founded the firm in 2017 to fix a specific failure in country-risk analysis. Conventional models rank economies by income thresholds and credit ratings. The GPI instead measures capability across ten structural dimensions, from energy and critical-minerals security to industrial capacity, technological leadership, human capital, and financial resilience, and reads each on two axes: where a country stands today, and how fast it is moving. The methodology was built with Dr Karim Abadir, Emeritus Professor of Financial Econometrics at Imperial College London. His work rests on two ideas. Geo-risk treats geopolitics, globalisation, technology, and societal change as a single compounding system rather than separate stories. Segmented polarity, the basis of his forthcoming book of the same name, replaces both the developed-and-emerging divide and the catch-all of multipolarity with a sharper read of how countries actually accumulate power, selectively, in the domains where they can compete. Both let leaders price change before it reaches consensus. That work has put him in the room with the people allocating capital under geopolitical exposure: NATO, the European Commission, Shell, JP Morgan, HSBC, Vanguard, Stena Bulk, and Telia, with audiences in more than 120 countries. His current reads from the index include Gulf capital as a new power centre, India’s climb from 24th to 6th place since 1994, and why groupings like BRICS hold together in some domains and fragment in others. Key speaking topics Geoeconomic strategy and country risk The Global Power Index and quantitative country forecasting Geo-risk and the compounding of political, technological, and capital forces Segmented polarity and emerging-market reassessment Geopolitical risk and capital allocation Fragmentation of the global trade and investment order AI, protectionism, and the redistribution of global power Long-horizon strategic foresight Ideal for Boards, investment committees, and CIOs setting country and exposure strategy in a fracturing global order Asset managers and family offices repositioning capital ahead of geopolitical shocks Corporate strategy leadership in energy, shipping, financial services, and technology with material cross-border exposure Policymakers and government officials shaping long-horizon economic and security strategy Audience outcomes A clearer view of which forces will actually shape the next five to ten years, separated from headline noise A working framework for pricing geopolitical risk into specific capital allocation, market entry, and exposure decisions Specific signals to track in their own industry, sector, or geography, drawn directly from the GPI’s underlying data Replacement of outdated categories like “emerging markets” with a sharper, data-driven read of country capability

Why organisations work with Jim Rogers He co-founded the Quantum Fund with George Soros in 1973 and helped run one of the most successful early hedge funds in history, which gives institutional audiences a primary source on how a global macro book is actually built. He created the Rogers International Commodity Index, still used as a benchmark for broad commodity exposure, so his views on energy, agriculture, and metals carry a structural weight that pure commentators do not have. He has driven and ridden through more than 100 countries on documented multi-year journeys, including a Guinness-recognised car trip across six continents, which means his country views are informed by direct contact rather than desk research. He has been calling the shift of capital toward Asia since relocating to Singapore in 2007, and audiences get a long-running, internally consistent thesis rather than a quarter-by-quarter pivot. His books, from Investment Biker to Hot Commodities to Street Smarts, give boards and investment committees a pre-read that frames the conversation before he is even in the room. Biography highlights Co-founder of the Quantum Fund with George Soros, 1973 Creator of the Rogers International Commodity Index (RICI), 1998 Former guest professor of finance, Columbia Business School Author of Investment Biker, Adventure Capitalist, Hot Commodities, A Bull in China, A Gift to My Children, and Street Smarts Guinness World Record holder for most countries visited in a continuous journey by car, with Paige Parker, 1999 to 2002 Yale (BA, history, cum laude, 1964) and Balliol College, Oxford (BA, PPE, 1966); chairman of Beeland Interests; based in Singapore Biography The Quantum Fund returned roughly 4,200% in its first decade while the S&P moved about 47%. Jim Rogers co-founded that fund with George Soros in 1973, and the partnership remains one of the reference points for how a global macro book can compound when the manager is willing to look beyond the home market. He retired from active fund management at 37 and turned to teaching, writing, and travelling. A guest professorship at Columbia Business School followed, alongside two long-form journeys: a motorcycle trip across six continents in the early 1990s, and a Guinness-recognised car trip with Paige Parker from 1999 to 2002 covering 111 countries and three territories. The travel is not decoration. It is how he tests his macro thesis against border posts, fuel stations, and local exchange rates. In 1998 he built the Rogers International Commodity Index, a broad-basket benchmark still referenced by commodity-tracking products. The index is the structural expression of a view he has held for decades: that real assets, food, energy, metals, and the countries that produce them, are systematically underweight in most portfolios. Since moving from New York to Singapore in 2007, his argument has sharpened around the eastward shift of capital and growth. His books, from Investment Biker to Hot Commodities and Street Smarts, set out the same case in detail. For an investment committee, a board, or a treasury team, the value is access to a thesis that has been held, traded, and revised over fifty years on three continents. Key speaking topics Global macro investing Commodity cycles and the case for real assets Asia, China, and the eastward shift of capital Long-term economic and currency outlook Emerging and frontier markets Investing through political and policy risk Ideal for Institutional investors, asset managers, family offices, and sovereign funds setting long-horizon allocation Banks, treasury teams, and CFO communities exposed to commodity, currency, and rate cycles Boards and executive committees of multinationals with significant Asia or emerging-market exposure Wealth management and private bank client events where the audience expects a contrarian macro voice Audience outcomes A clear, fifty-year-tested thesis on how capital is shifting between West and East and what that means for portfolio construction A working framework for thinking about commodity cycles and where real assets sit in a long-only book Specific country and sector views on China, the broader Asia region, and frontier markets, drawn from direct travel and current allocation Sharper questions to bring back to investment committees and boards about consensus assumptions on the dollar, US equities, and global growth A reading list, anchored on Hot Commodities, Investment Biker, and Street Smarts, that lets attendees keep working with the argument afterwards

Why organisations work with Jeroen Dijsselbloem He chaired the Eurogroup through the Cyprus bail-in, the third Greek programme, and the build-out of the banking union, so the explanation of how the euro area actually behaves under stress is first-hand, not analytical. As current Mayor of Eindhoven and President of Brainport Eindhoven, he sits at the centre of Europe’s most concentrated semiconductor and high-tech manufacturing cluster, with direct line of sight on industrial policy and chip supply. He led the Dutch Safety Board’s public investigation into the Netherlands’ COVID-19 crisis response, giving him a working framework for how governments and institutions actually decide under shock. His book “The Euro Crisis: The inside story” is one of very few first-person accounts of eurozone crisis management written by a sitting chair of the Eurogroup, used as a reference text by financial sector audiences. He speaks credibly to two audiences most macro speakers cannot bridge at once, finance ministers and central bank counterparts on one side, and industrial and technology leaders on the other. Biography highlights President of the Eurogroup, 2013 to 2018, serving two consecutive terms elected by euro area finance ministers. Minister of Finance of the Netherlands, 2012 to 2017, in the second Rutte cabinet. President of the Board of Governors of the European Stability Mechanism, 2013 to 2018. Author of “The Euro Crisis: The inside story,” Prometheus, 2018, with editions in Dutch and English. Chairman of the Dutch Safety Board, 2019 to 2022, leading the official investigation into the Dutch COVID-19 response. Mayor of Eindhoven since 2022 and President of the Brainport Eindhoven Region, home to ASML and the Dutch semiconductor cluster. Biography The Cyprus bail-in in March 2013 was the first time a eurozone rescue forced losses onto uninsured bank depositors. Jeroen Dijsselbloem chaired the Eurogroup meeting where that decision was taken. Two years later he chaired the room again when Greece’s third programme was negotiated against a referendum, a missed IMF payment, and an expiring bailout. Those two episodes did more to define how the euro area would behave under stress than any treaty change. Before Brussels, he served as Minister of Finance of the Netherlands from 2012 to 2017 in the second Rutte cabinet, and before that as a long-serving Labour member of the House of Representatives. As President of the Eurogroup from 2013 to 2018 he also chaired the Board of Governors of the European Stability Mechanism. His own account of that period, “The Euro Crisis: The inside story,” is one of the few first-person records of those negotiations written by the person who chaired them. Since leaving Brussels he has done two unusual things for a former finance minister. He chaired the Dutch Safety Board from 2019 to 2022, leading the official public investigation into how the Netherlands handled COVID-19, including its decision-making structure and crisis governance. Then in 2022 he became Mayor of Eindhoven and President of the Brainport Eindhoven Region, which means he now has political responsibility for the area that hosts ASML and a large share of Europe’s advanced chip manufacturing capability. That sequence, eurozone crisis manager, then crisis-response investigator, then operating leader of a strategic European tech cluster, gives him a working view of where European competitiveness, capital and security policy now intersect. He speaks regularly on European competitiveness, the proposed Savings and Investment Union, and the future of the EU’s industrial base. Key speaking topics Eurozone crisis management and sovereign debt European banking union and financial stability European competitiveness and industrial policy Semiconductor supply chains and the Brainport ecosystem The Savings and Investment Union and capital markets in Europe Government decision-making under shock Future of the European Union Ideal for Boards and investment committees with material euro area exposure CFOs and treasurers managing European sovereign and bank risk Technology and industrial leaders tracking EU chip policy and Brainport Public-affairs, policy and government-relations leads working on Brussels Audience outcomes A clearer reading of how eurozone decisions are actually taken when a member state is in crisis A working sense of what the banking union does and does not yet cover A grounded view of European industrial policy and the chip supply question through the Brainport lens A first-person account of leading a national crisis investigation, useful for risk and resilience audiences

Why organisations work with Jeremy Siegel He wrote the book the industry uses as its reference point on long-run equity returns. “Stocks for the Long Run”, now in its sixth edition, is on The Washington Post’s list of the ten best investment books ever written, and his dataset on equities versus bonds since 1802 remains the standard citation in the field. His MIT training under Samuelson, Solow, and Modigliani gives him an unusual depth of macroeconomic reasoning behind every market call. He reads Fed minutes and inflation data the way they were intended to be read, not as headlines. He has been interpreting Federal Reserve policy in public for more than fifty years, and his CNBC commentary is treated by professional investors as a primary signal rather than punditry. His role as Senior Economist to WisdomTree means his thinking is already operationalised in live model portfolios, so audiences engage with a practitioner whose views translate directly into asset allocation decisions. Most macro speakers offer either history or forecasts. Siegel does both, anchored to a dataset that pre-dates the Civil War, which is why investment committees keep bringing him back through every cycle. Biography highlights Russell E. Palmer Professor Emeritus of Finance, Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania. PhD in economics from MIT, where he studied under Paul Samuelson, Robert Solow, and Franco Modigliani. Author of “Stocks for the Long Run” (six editions) and “The Future for Investors”, both Crown Business titles. Senior Economist to WisdomTree, with a co-branded family of model portfolios used by financial advisers. Regular contributor on CNBC, Kiplinger’s Personal Finance, and Yahoo Finance. Recipient of the Nicholas Molodovsky Award from the CFA Institute and the Graham and Dodd Award from the Financial Analysts Journal. Biography Most public commentary on markets is built on a few quarters of memory. “Stocks for the Long Run” is built on two centuries of data. The book first appeared in 1994, is now in its sixth edition, and remains the standard reference for the question that anchors every investment committee meeting: across full cycles, what do equities actually return, and what does the historical record say about the next allocation decision? The work has authority because of where it comes from. Jeremy Siegel earned his PhD in economics at MIT under Paul Samuelson, Robert Solow, and Franco Modigliani, three of the defining macroeconomists of the twentieth century. He taught at the University of Chicago before joining Wharton, where he held the Russell E. Palmer chair in finance for more than four decades and is now Professor Emeritus. His second book, “The Future for Investors”, made a more contrarian argument: that the fastest-growing companies and sectors tend to disappoint long-term investors, while disciplined dividend-paying stalwarts compound returns more reliably. The thesis, which he called the “growth trap”, has aged well through the dot-com cycle, the FAANG decade, and the current AI boom. Siegel has been reading Federal Reserve policy in public for over fifty years and now serves as Senior Economist to WisdomTree, where his analysis sits inside a family of co-branded model portfolios. The Washington Post named “Stocks for the Long Run” one of the ten best investment books ever written; the CFA Institute awarded him the Nicholas Molodovsky Award in 2005, recognising work that has changed how the profession thinks. Key speaking topics Long-run equity returns and historical asset class performance Federal Reserve policy and interest rate paths Inflation, monetary policy, and capital markets Portfolio construction and asset allocation Dividend investing and the growth trap US economic outlook and market cycles The role of valuation in long-term investing Ideal for Investment committees, asset allocators, and CIOs of institutional funds Boards and CFOs making capital allocation decisions under rate uncertainty Wealth managers, financial advisers, and private bank client events CFA society events and capital markets conferences Audience outcomes A historically grounded view of what equities have returned across cycles and what that implies for current allocation A sharper read on Federal Reserve policy direction and the data points that actually move it A framework for distinguishing durable dividend-compounding businesses from over-priced growth stories Practical anchors for portfolio discussions when short-term volatility is dominating the conversation

Why organisations work with James K. Galbraith A measurement record that competitors cannot match: the University of Texas Inequality Project produces global pay inequality datasets used by researchers and institutions where conventional household surveys and tax data fall short. Hands-on policy experience that maps directly to corporate strategy questions on China, Europe and US industrial policy, including a four-year stint as chief technical adviser on macroeconomic reform to China’s State Planning Commission. Co-winner of the 2014 Leontief Prize alongside Angus Deaton, an award that signals first-rank standing in the economics of inequality and welfare measurement. A clear, unhedged position on where mainstream macroeconomics fails, set out in books published by Oxford University Press, Simon and Schuster, Yale University Press, and University of Chicago Press, which gives audiences something to engage with rather than a survey of consensus views. Direct line of sight into US economic policy debates through regular columns at Project Syndicate, The Nation, and American Affairs, and former service as Executive Director of the Joint Economic Committee of Congress. Biography highlights Lloyd M. Bentsen Jr. Chair in Government/Business Relations, LBJ School of Public Affairs, University of Texas at Austin. Director, University of Texas Inequality Project; Senior Scholar, Levy Economics Institute of Bard College. Co-winner, 2014 Leontief Prize (with Angus Deaton); Veblen-Commons Award, 2020. Elected to the Accademia Nazionale dei Lincei, the Russian Academy of Sciences, and the Lisbon Academy of Sciences. Former Executive Director, Joint Economic Committee of the US Congress; chief technical adviser, macroeconomic reform, China State Planning Commission, 1993 to 1997. Author of Inequality and Instability (Oxford), The End of Normal (Simon and Schuster), Welcome to the Poisoned Chalice (Yale), and Entropy Economics with Jing Chen (Chicago, 2025); The Power to Destroy forthcoming from Chicago in 2026. Biography Most macroeconomic commentary still treats inequality as a side effect of growth. The University of Texas Inequality Project, which Galbraith has directed for over two decades, treats it as a measurable feature of the system itself. Using UNIDO industrial payroll data and Theil decomposition, the project produces a global picture of pay inequality that often diverges from headline tax and survey data, and that has shaped how serious analysts read crises in Europe, the US and China. Galbraith holds the Lloyd M. Bentsen Jr. Chair at the LBJ School of Public Affairs in Austin and is a Senior Scholar at the Levy Economics Institute. The 2014 Leontief Prize, shared with Angus Deaton, and the 2020 Veblen-Commons Award place him in the small group of economists whose work on distribution is recognised across both mainstream and heterodox traditions. Election to the Accademia Nazionale dei Lincei, the Russian Academy of Sciences and the Lisbon Academy of Sciences confirms the international weight of the research. The credentials sit on top of policy experience that few academic economists can claim. Galbraith ran the Joint Economic Committee of the US Congress in the early 1980s and served as chief technical adviser on macroeconomic reform to China’s State Planning Commission from 1993 to 1997. He has written closely on the eurozone crisis, including Welcome to the Poisoned Chalice from Yale University Press, and on the structural drivers of slower US growth in The End of Normal. Recent work pushes harder against the foundations of the discipline. Entropy Economics, co-authored with Jing Chen and published by the University of Chicago Press in 2025, rebuilds value and production theory on physical and biological grounds rather than on equilibrium. The Power to Destroy, due from Chicago in 2026, argues that obsolete economic ideas have shaped a generation of US policy, and that what comes next depends on which ideas governments choose to operate by. Key speaking topics Global inequality and the measurement of distributional change Macroeconomic policy after the end of cheap money US industrial policy and the political economy of decline The eurozone, austerity, and the future of European integration China’s growth model and macroeconomic adjustment Financial instability and the limits of mainstream macroeconomics Post-equilibrium economics and the foundations of value Ideal for Boards and investment committees making capital allocation decisions under macroeconomic and geopolitical uncertainty CFOs, chief economists, and heads of strategy at financial institutions, asset managers, and multinationals with material US, Chinese, or European exposure Policy-facing audiences in central banks, finance ministries, multilateral institutions, and think tanks Senior leadership programmes seeking a substantive economist rather than a forecaster Audience outcomes A clearer view of how inequality and financial instability now shape macroeconomic outcomes, not just social ones A working frame for reading US, European and Chinese policy moves as parts of a single shifting system An informed scepticism toward conventional growth and inflation narratives, grounded in the data Galbraith’s team produces A direct argument about where mainstream economics is failing capital allocators and what alternative frameworks offer Sharper questions to bring back to internal economists, strategy teams and risk committees

Why organisations work with Jacques Attali He built one of the institutions that defined the post-Cold War economic settlement. As founding president of the EBRD, he carries direct experience of structuring capital flows into a continent in political transition, the kind of frame few living economists can offer. A decade as special adviser to President Mitterrand and Sherpa for two G7 summits gives him an inside view of how heads of state actually make decisions under pressure, useful to any board navigating government exposure. His futures work, particularly A Brief History of the Future, sets out a coherent scenario framework (hyperempire, hyperconflict, hyperdemocracy) that boards can use as a long-range planning lens rather than as a single forecast. He has chaired two French government commissions on growth, one for Sarkozy and a positive economy report for Hollande, with proposals that fed directly into national reform agendas. The work is operational, not theoretical. Founder of Action Against Hunger, the EUREKA technology programme and Positive Planet. He has built and run institutions, not only written about them. Biography highlights Founding President, European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, 1991 to 1993. Special adviser to President Francois Mitterrand, 1981 to 1991; G7 Sherpa for the Paris (1982) and Arche de la Defense (1989) summits. Chair, Commission for the Liberation of French Growth (Sarkozy, 2007 to 2008); author of the Positive Economy report (Hollande, 2013). Author of more than 80 books, including Noise: The Political Economy of Music, A Brief History of the Future and Verbatim, in 22 languages. Founder of Action Against Hunger (1979), the EUREKA European technology programme (1984) and Positive Planet (1998). Named one of Foreign Policy magazine’s Top 100 Global Thinkers (2009); graduate of the Ecole Polytechnique, Sciences Po, the Ecole des Mines and ENA; doctorate in economics. Biography The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development opened its doors in London in April 1991 with a mandate no institution had attempted before: channel Western capital into countries leaving state socialism without recreating the conditions that had broken them. Jacques Attali designed it and ran it for its first two years. The institution is still operating, with more than seventy countries of operations and shareholders today, which is the most useful evidence of the architecture he chose. Before the EBRD, ten years inside the Elysee under Francois Mitterrand. Attali was special adviser to the president from 1981 to 1991, sat in the cabinet meetings and the bilateral meetings with foreign heads of state, and served as France’s Sherpa at the G7 summits in Paris in 1982 and at the Arche de la Defense in 1989. The work he has done since, two growth commissions for two French presidents and consulting with governments and large companies through Attali & Associates, is built on that operating exposure to how state and economy actually intersect. The intellectual output runs alongside. Eighty-plus books, translated into twenty-two languages, with Noise: The Political Economy of Music (1977) and A Brief History of the Future (2006) the most widely cited. The futures work matters commercially because it gives boards a framework. The hyperempire, hyperconflict and hyperdemocracy scenarios in A Brief History of the Future are now nearly twenty years old, which is the right test of long-range writing. The frame still holds against the geopolitics of the present decade. He has also built things outside government. Action Against Hunger (1979), still one of the major humanitarian organisations operating in famine zones. The EUREKA technology programme (1984), the European R&D collaboration that, among other outputs, produced the standards work behind the MP3 format. Positive Planet (1998), the microfinance non-profit now active across more than 80 countries. Foreign Policy magazine named him among its Top 100 Global Thinkers in 2009. Key speaking topics Geopolitical risk and the next world order The future of Europe and European competitiveness Long-range scenarios and strategic foresight Global economic transformation The future of finance and microfinance Positive economy and intergenerational responsibility Globalisation and its commercial consequences Ideal for Boards and executive committees of multinationals with material exposure to European and emerging-market policy shifts Chief strategy officers and corporate development teams working on long-range scenario planning Bank and asset management leadership groups exposed to sovereign and geopolitical risk Government and intergovernmental audiences working on growth, innovation and reform agendas Audience outcomes A longer historical frame for the current geopolitical realignment, anchored in firsthand experience of the post-1989 settlement. A working scenario lens, hyperempire, hyperconflict and hyperdemocracy, that senior teams can apply to their own strategy review. A sharper read on Europe’s commercial position relative to the US and China, from someone who has helped design European institutions. A serious account of how heads of state actually reach decisions, useful for executives operating across government interfaces.

Why organisations work with Jürgen Stark He sat on the ECB Governing Council during the eurozone sovereign debt crisis and resigned over the bond-buying programme that followed, giving audiences a first-person account of how the institution actually decides Two terms as Vice President of the Bundesbank and a State Secretary role at the German Federal Ministry of Finance put him inside the negotiations that shaped the Maastricht framework and the Stability and Growth Pact He reads ECB communications as a former author of them, useful for treasurers and CIOs trying to distinguish signalling from substance in central bank language His position is consistently hawkish on inflation and fiscal discipline, a stance organisations seek when they want a counterweight to consensus macro views Biography highlights Member of the Executive Board and Chief Economist of the European Central Bank, 2006 to 2011 Vice President of the Deutsche Bundesbank for two consecutive terms, 1998 to 2006 State Secretary at the German Federal Ministry of Finance and G7/G8 sherpa to Chancellor Helmut Kohl, 1995 to 1998 Doctorate in economics, University of Tübingen; honorary professor at Eberhard Karls University Tübingen Member of the Amundi Global Advisory Board and the Bertelsmann Stiftung Board of Trustees Biography The September 2011 resignation from the European Central Bank is the most economical way to understand Jürgen Stark’s intellectual position. He left the Governing Council three years before the end of his term, in disagreement with the bond purchases of Italian and Spanish sovereign debt that the ECB had begun under its Securities Markets Programme. The institution attributed his departure to personal reasons; the substantive reason was a disagreement about what a central bank’s mandate actually permits. That disagreement is the through-line of his career. Two terms as Vice President of the Deutsche Bundesbank, from 1998 to 2006, placed him at the centre of German monetary policy across the introduction of the euro and the first decade of eurozone operation. Earlier, as State Secretary at the German Federal Ministry of Finance, he served as G7 sherpa to Chancellor Helmut Kohl through the period that produced the Stability and Growth Pact. The doctorate from Tübingen and the honorary professorship that followed are the academic anchors of a career that has otherwise been operational. He continues to write and speak on eurozone fiscal architecture, monetary policy, and the institutional credibility of central banks, and sits on the Amundi Global Advisory Board and the Bertelsmann Stiftung Board of Trustees. What he offers a senior audience is not commentary at one remove from the institutions, but the position of someone who held the chief economist’s seat at the ECB during the crisis that defined the modern eurozone, and resigned from it on principle. Key speaking topics European monetary policy and the ECB mandate Eurozone fiscal architecture and the Stability and Growth Pact Inflation, interest rates, and central bank credibility Sovereign debt and the eurozone sovereign debt crisis Macroeconomic outlook for the euro area Central bank communication and market signalling Ideal for Boards, audit committees, and CFOs setting capital allocation policy under eurozone monetary uncertainty Bank treasurers, asset managers, and institutional investors reading ECB and Bundesbank policy direction Public policy and economic forums where a first-person account of ECB Governing Council decisions adds substance to the conversation Audience outcomes A direct reading of how ECB Governing Council decisions are actually arrived at, from someone who sat on it A position on whether current monetary policy is consistent with the institutional mandate set out at Maastricht A clear macro view from a recognised inflation hawk, useful as a counterweight when internal forecasts cluster on consensus The historical context that explains why eurozone fiscal rules exist in the form they do, and where the live tensions sit today

Why organisations work with Ian Goldin He predicted in The Butterfly Defect (2014) that a pandemic would be the most likely cause of the next global financial shock, six years before COVID. Boards looking for genuine foresight on systemic risk treat that record as evidence, not branding. He forecasts growth prospects across regions, including the US, Europe, China, and Asia, and across sectors such as manufacturing, banking, and AI. Asset allocators, central banks, and multinational boards use that view to stress-test capital and operating decisions over a five to fifteen year horizon. Few speakers carry both operating and academic authority on globalisation: Vice President of the World Bank, Chief Executive of the Development Bank of Southern Africa, and Founding Director of the Oxford Martin School. His work translates directly into capital and policy decisions on geoeconomics, supply chains, urbanisation, and the impact of AI on jobs and development. These are the live questions on most international boards heading into the late 2020s. He moderates and facilitates as well as keynotes. Clients including J.P. Morgan and pharmaceutical and legal industry events have used him to open and connect multi-day programmes, shape agendas, and chair leadership conversations on top of delivering the headline keynote. Biography highlights Vice President of the World Bank (2003-2006) and Director of Development Policy (2001-2003). Chief Executive of the Development Bank of Southern Africa (1996-2001), advising President Nelson Mandela. Founding Director of the Oxford Martin School (2006-2016), establishing 45 research programmes and over 500 affiliated academics. Professor of Globalisation and Development, University of Oxford, and Professorial Fellow at Balliol College. Author of 25 books including The Butterfly Defect (Princeton, 2014), Age of the City (Bloomsbury, 2023, FT Best Books of 2023), and The Shortest History of Migration (Old Street, 2024). Writer and presenter of three BBC documentary series, including After the Crash and The Pandemic that Changed the World, and the BBC Analysis The Death of Globalisation (2023). Biography In 2014, The Butterfly Defect argued that the next major global financial shock was most likely to come from a pandemic running through the connective tissue of globalisation. Six years later, COVID proved the case. The book, written with Mike Mariathasan and published by Princeton, was Ian Goldin’s clearest statement of a thesis he had been building for two decades: globalisation has produced extraordinary gains and a new class of systemic risk that institutions are not yet built to manage. That argument carries weight because of where it comes from. Goldin was Vice President of the World Bank and, before that, Chief Executive of the Development Bank of Southern Africa, where he advised President Nelson Mandela through the early post-apartheid years. He was Principal Economist at the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development and a Programme Director at the OECD in Paris. The institutions sit behind the books. At Oxford, he founded the Oxford Martin School in 2006 and ran it for a decade, building 45 research programmes across more than 100 disciplines. He now leads three Oxford Martin programmes on technological and economic change, the future of work, and the future of development. His books, 25 in total, run from Exceptional People on migration to Age of the City on urban futures, with The Shortest History of Migration arriving in 2024. What boards and governments use him for is harder than topic coverage. It is the ability to connect migration, AI, climate, and supply chain stress into a coherent picture of where capital, talent, and political risk are moving over a five to fifteen year horizon, with the operational scars to know which policy moves actually land. Key speaking topics Economic growth prospects across countries, regions, and sectors Geopolitics, geoeconomics, and the fracturing rules-based order Systemic risk and globalisation AI, jobs, and the future of work The future of cities and urbanisation Long-horizon scenarios and crisis recovery Migration and demographic change Ideal for Boards and executive committees of multinationals navigating geopolitical exposure, supply chain risk, and growth divergence across regions. Government, central bank, and multilateral audiences setting policy on development, AI, and climate. Investor and asset-allocator forums sizing long-horizon risk across regions and sectors. CSOs, heads of strategy, and CFOs responsible for capital decisions under macro and political uncertainty. Audience outcomes A clearer reading of how today’s shocks connect: pandemics, AI, migration, climate, and political fracture as one system. Specific arguments and evidence boards can use when stress-testing strategy against the next decade of global change. A sharper view of how growth prospects diverge across regions and sectors, and what that means for capital allocation, supply chains, and talent strategy. Confidence to challenge assumptions baked into long-range plans, sourced from someone who has run the institutions setting global policy.

Why organisations work with Harold James A historian’s answer to the question leaders actually ask in a crisis: is this 1973, 2008, or something new? The framework from Seven Crashes gives boards a way to test that judgement rather than guess. Institutional access earned as the IMF’s official historian, with a chair at Princeton since 1986. Few commentators on globalization sit this close to the machinery they write about. A published thesis, not a view of the week: supply-driven crises expand markets, demand-driven crises shrink them. It changes how leaders interpret inflation, tariffs, and capital controls. Track record with serious business readers, including the Financial Times Global Business Book Award for the Deutsche Bank history and an FT Best Politics Books selection for The War of Words. Biography highlights Claude and Lore Kelly Professor in European Studies, Princeton University; Professor of History and International Affairs at Princeton’s School of Public and International Affairs. Official historian of the International Monetary Fund. Author of Seven Crashes: The Economic Crises That Shaped Globalization (Yale University Press, 2023) and Making the European Monetary Union (Harvard University Press, 2012). Co-author of the authorised history of Deutsche Bank, winner of the Financial Times Global Business Book Award, 1996. Helmut Schmidt Prize for Economic History (2004); Ludwig Erhard Prize for writing about economics (2005); Ellen McArthur Prize for Economic History, Cambridge. Monthly columnist for Project Syndicate; associate of Princeton’s Bendheim Center for Finance. Biography Seven crashes, from the 1840s depression to Covid-19, do not all mean the same thing. In Seven Crashes (Yale, 2023), Harold James splits them into crises of supply, which tend to expand markets, and crises of demand, which tend to contract them. That distinction is the working tool he brings into boardrooms. The intellectual base is Princeton, where James has held the Claude and Lore Kelly Chair in European Studies since joining the faculty in 1986. He is Professor of History and International Affairs at the School of Public and International Affairs and an associate of the Bendheim Center for Finance. Making the European Monetary Union (Harvard, 2012) remains a standard reference on how the euro was built and what it assumed about member-state behaviour. The institutional access is unusual. James is the official historian of the International Monetary Fund, which gives him a documented inside view of how the post-war financial order actually operated through each shock. His authorised history of Deutsche Bank won the Financial Times Global Business Book Award in 1996. The War of Words, his glossary of globalization, was named to the Financial Times Best Politics Books of 2021. For corporate audiences the output is practical. A monthly Project Syndicate column tests his arguments against the news cycle. The Helmut Schmidt Prize (2004), Ludwig Erhard Prize (2005), and Cambridge’s Ellen McArthur Prize sit behind that record. When a risk committee is trying to decide whether tariffs, sanctions, or a monetary regime change is a shock or a structural shift, his Seven Crashes framework is a clean instrument for forcing that choice. Key speaking topics Globalization cycles and deglobalization Financial crises and crisis response European monetary union and the euro History of central banking Germany and the European economy International monetary and financial architecture Inflation, supply shocks, and political economy Ideal for Bank and asset manager boards setting multi-year macro and rate assumptions CROs, CFOs, and treasury leaders testing crisis playbooks against historical precedent Policy, regulatory, and central bank forums on monetary union and international finance Investor conferences and CEO summits addressing tariffs, sanctions, and the future of trade Audience outcomes A working distinction between supply-driven and demand-driven crises, with historical cases for each A sharper reading of current inflation, tariff, and capital-flow debates against the long record Perspective on the euro and European monetary policy from a historian who has written its formal history An IMF-informed view of how global financial institutions actually respond when the system is under stress

Why organisations work with Graeme Leach A working forecaster, not a commentator. Two decades as Chief Economist at the Institute of Directors and earlier at the Henley Centre for Forecasting give him a record of calling macro turning points for business audiences before they show up in headlines. One of the few UK economists who connects monetary policy, geopolitics, and long-horizon demographics in a single argument. His “The RACE” keynote forces leadership teams to think about technology adoption and demographic decline as the same strategic problem. A senior policy voice, not just a market voice. Membership of the IEA Shadow Monetary Policy Committee and the Legatum Institute senior fellowship put him inside the UK debate on interest rates, productivity, and prosperity, which matters to boards making capital allocation calls. Built for serious audiences. Nearly 1,000 keynotes in 25 countries, including Royal Albert Hall scale, with a reputation for making complex macro intelligible to non-economists in the room. Biography highlights CEO and Chief Economist, macronomics, a macroeconomic, geopolitical and future megatrends research consultancy founded in 2016. Chief Economist and Director of Policy, Institute of Directors, 1997 to 2014, and a main board director. Senior Fellow, Legatum Institute, and former Director of Economics and Prosperity Studies. Member, IEA Shadow Monetary Policy Committee. Weekly columnist, City AM. Former Chief UK and International Economist, The Henley Centre for Forecasting. Regular contributor on BBC News, Sky News, BBC Radio 4 Today and World at One. Almost 1,000 keynotes delivered across 25 countries. Biography The macroeconomic backdrop business leaders operate against has stopped being a single curve and become a set of intersecting ones. Interest rates, inflation, geopolitical risk, demographic decline, and the productivity story behind AI now move together. Boards need a forecaster who can read them as one system. That is the job Graeme Leach has done for UK business for more than two decades. As Chief Economist and Director of Policy at the Institute of Directors from 1997 to 2014, he was the macroeconomic voice for thousands of UK directors through the dotcom cycle, the financial crisis, and the early years of the post-2008 recovery. Before that he was Chief UK and International Economist at the Henley Centre for Forecasting, one of the original commercial forecasting houses in London. In 2016 he founded macronomics, where he advises corporate and institutional clients on global outlook, geopolitical risk, and the megatrends that sit underneath them. The work is reinforced by a Senior Fellowship at the Legatum Institute, a seat on the IEA Shadow Monetary Policy Committee, and a weekly City AM column, giving him a continuous read on UK monetary policy and prosperity debates. His signature keynote, “The RACE for economic supremacy in the 21st century”, argues that the advanced economies are racing to capture the productivity gains of technology before demographic decline erodes growth. It is the kind of argument that connects what a CFO sees on the rate curve to what a CHRO sees in the workforce data. Across nearly 1,000 engagements in 25 countries, the reputation is consistent: he makes the complicated sound simple without making it sound small. Key speaking topics Global economic outlook UK economic outlook and monetary policy Geopolitical risk Demographic change and productivity Future megatrends Brexit and UK political economy Long-run scenarios for the world economy Ideal for Board and ExCo strategy offsites setting capital allocation under macro uncertainty CFO and treasury audiences planning against rate, inflation, and currency cycles Industry conferences and corporate client events needing a senior macro voice After-dinner and keynote slots where a serious economist must hold a non-specialist room Audience outcomes A coherent reading of the global and UK macro picture, with named risks rather than a checklist A clear view of how demography, technology, and geopolitics interact over a 10 to 20 year horizon A grounded position on UK interest rates, inflation, and growth from inside the policy debate Specific implications for capital allocation, workforce planning, and international exposure