Economic Forecasting

Why organisations work with Lars P Feld He helped design the constitutional framework leaders are now operating under. As an expert to Federalism Commission II in 2007, he contributed directly to the architecture of Germany’s debt brake, and his subsequent empirical work is the standard reference on its effects. He sat at the centre of German economic policymaking for a decade. Ten years on the German Council of Economic Experts, ending as chairman, and then three years as personal advisor to Federal Finance Minister Christian Lindner, give him a working knowledge of how German fiscal decisions actually get made. He brings ordoliberal economics to questions where most macro commentary is purely Keynesian or markets-driven. His co-authored work on ordoliberalism and the eurozone crisis is the reference text for understanding why Berlin negotiates the way it does. His authority is institutional, not media-built. Gustav-Stolper-Prize, Leopoldina membership, Kronberger Kreis, an honorary doctorate from Lucerne and the Friedrich-List-Medal place him in a small group of economists whose published positions move German policy debate. Biography highlights Chair for Economic Policy and Constitutional Economics, Albert-Ludwigs-University of Freiburg, since 2010. President of the Walter Eucken Institute, Freiburg. Member of the German Council of Economic Experts, 2011 to 2021, and chairman in 2020 to 2021. Personal economic policy advisor to Federal Finance Minister Christian Lindner, February 2022 to November 2024. Scientific Advisory Board, Federal Ministry of Finance, since 2003; Minimum Wage Commission member since 2020. Gustav-Stolper-Prize (2021); honorary doctorate, University of Lucerne (2017); Friedrich-List-Medal (2023); member of Leopoldina, Kronberger Kreis and Mont Pelerin Society. Biography Germany rewrote its constitution in 2009 to limit federal borrowing. Feld was one of the academic experts who fed that reform, sitting on Federalism Commission II and arguing the case for a binding fiscal rule. His later empirical work, including a synthetic-control evaluation co-authored with researchers at the Walter Eucken Institute, is now the reference analysis of what the debt brake actually did to German public finances in the decade that followed. That mix of constitutional design and quantitative evaluation runs through his career. From the Chair for Economic Policy and Constitutional Economics in Freiburg, and as President of the Walter Eucken Institute, he works inside the ordoliberal tradition that has shaped how Berlin negotiates inside the eurozone. His co-authored paper on ordoliberalism, pragmatism and the eurozone crisis is one of the more cited explanations of why German positions on Greek debt, Italian deficits and ECB intervention took the shape they did. He has spent a decade in the centre of German policymaking. Ten years on the German Council of Economic Experts, ending as chairman in 2020 to 2021, gave him a direct hand in the Council’s annual reports to the federal government. From February 2022 to November 2024, he served as personal economic policy advisor to Finance Minister Christian Lindner, a role that sits at the intersection of the ministry, the coalition and the Bundesbank. The institutional recognition has followed. The Gustav-Stolper-Prize in 2021, regarded inside the Verein fuer Socialpolitik as the most prestigious German economics award, sits alongside Leopoldina membership, the Kronberger Kreis, the Friedrich-List-Medal and an honorary doctorate from the University of Lucerne. For a boardroom audience trying to understand where German and European fiscal policy is going, he is one of the small number of economists whose published positions still move the debate. Key speaking topics The German debt brake and European fiscal rules Sovereign debt sustainability in the eurozone Ordoliberalism and German economic policy Macroeconomic outlook for Germany and the EU Public finance and federalism Minimum wage policy and labour market regulation The political economy of EU reform Ideal for CFOs, group treasurers and chief economists making capital allocation decisions exposed to eurozone sovereign risk. Bank and asset manager boards with material German or EU government bond exposure. CEOs and strategy leads of industrial groups whose investment cases turn on German fiscal trajectory and energy and infrastructure spending. Policy and government relations leads tracking the German coalition, the EU Stability and Growth Pact, and ECB policy. Audience outcomes A clear read on where the German debt brake debate is heading and what changes are politically feasible. A working model of how Berlin will negotiate inside the EU on fiscal rules, common debt and ECB policy. A sharper view of which sovereign and quasi-sovereign exposures are most sensitive to the next phase of European fiscal reform. An informed account of the ordoliberal tradition behind German policy positions, useful for anyone modelling counterparty or political risk in the eurozone.

Why organisations work with Klisman Murati The Global Power Index, a proprietary quantitative model assessing 194 countries across multiple dimensions of national power and built on more than 30 years of longitudinal data. Clients drawing on it include NATO, the European Commission, Shell, JP Morgan, and HSBC. A documented forecasting record. The GPI signalled Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and Germany’s 2024 recession before consensus, and surfaced the structural drivers of the US-Israel-Iran conflict for shipping and energy leadership ahead of the market. A direct challenge to the categories institutions still allocate against. He shows asset managers and corporate boards why “emerging markets” no longer maps to where capability is actually accumulating, and gives them a more accurate way to read country trajectories. A multidisciplinary lens that single-discipline analysts cannot replicate. His training spans anthropology, political economy, energy policy, security studies, and financial crime, which is what allows him to read AI, protectionism, capital flows, and demographic change as one connected system. Biography highlights Founder and CEO of Pareto Economics, the London-based strategic intelligence firm behind the Global Power Index Creator of the Global Power Index, a proprietary quantitative framework covering 194 countries and three decades of longitudinal data Visiting Professor at the Helsinki Geoeconomics Institute Forecasts arriving ahead of consensus include Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and Germany’s 2024 recession Clients include NATO, the European Commission, Shell, JP Morgan, HSBC, Vanguard, Telia, and Stena Bulk Quoted and broadcast across BBC, Al Jazeera, CGTN, the Financial Times, and Investment Week; author of more than 250 published articles Biography Pareto Economics called Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and Germany’s 2024 recession ahead of consensus. Behind those calls sits the Global Power Index, a proprietary quantitative model of 194 countries built on more than 30 years of longitudinal data. Klisman Murati founded Pareto Economics in 2017 to address a specific gap in country-risk analysis. Conventional models rank economies by income thresholds and credit ratings. The GPI instead maps which economies are actually accumulating capability across consumer markets, military balance, technological leadership, commodities exposure, geostrategic position, and financial strength. That work has placed him in the room with the people allocating capital under geopolitical exposure. Clients include NATO, the European Commission, Shell, JP Morgan, HSBC, Vanguard, Stena Bulk, and Telia. He has helped asset managers reposition ahead of the Russia-Ukraine shock and advised shipping and energy leadership on the structural drivers of the US-Israel-Iran conflict. Murati’s training spans social anthropology, security studies, energy policy, and financial crime. As Visiting Professor at the Helsinki Geoeconomics Institute, he sits at the intersection of frontier academic research and live institutional practice. His commentary appears across BBC, Al Jazeera, CGTN, the Financial Times, and Investment Week, and he has published more than 250 articles. Key speaking topics Geoeconomic strategy and country risk The Global Power Index and quantitative country forecasting Geopolitical risk and capital allocation Fragmentation of the global trade and investment order AI, protectionism, and the redistribution of global power Long-horizon strategic foresight Emerging market reassessment Ideal for Boards, investment committees, and CIOs setting country and exposure strategy in a fracturing global order Asset managers and family offices repositioning capital ahead of geopolitical shocks Corporate strategy leadership in energy, shipping, financial services, and technology with material cross-border exposure Policymakers and government officials shaping long-horizon economic and security strategy Audience outcomes A clearer view of which forces will actually shape the next five to ten years, separated from headline noise A working framework for pricing geopolitical risk into specific capital allocation, market entry, and exposure decisions Specific signals to track in their own industry, sector, or geography, drawn directly from the GPI’s underlying data Replacement of outdated categories like “emerging markets” with a sharper, data-driven read of country capability

Why organisations work with Jim Rogers He co-founded the Quantum Fund with George Soros in 1973 and helped run one of the most successful early hedge funds in history, which gives institutional audiences a primary source on how a global macro book is actually built. He created the Rogers International Commodity Index, still used as a benchmark for broad commodity exposure, so his views on energy, agriculture, and metals carry a structural weight that pure commentators do not have. He has driven and ridden through more than 100 countries on documented multi-year journeys, including a Guinness-recognised car trip across six continents, which means his country views are informed by direct contact rather than desk research. He has been calling the shift of capital toward Asia since relocating to Singapore in 2007, and audiences get a long-running, internally consistent thesis rather than a quarter-by-quarter pivot. His books, from Investment Biker to Hot Commodities to Street Smarts, give boards and investment committees a pre-read that frames the conversation before he is even in the room. Biography highlights Co-founder of the Quantum Fund with George Soros, 1973 Creator of the Rogers International Commodity Index (RICI), 1998 Former guest professor of finance, Columbia Business School Author of Investment Biker, Adventure Capitalist, Hot Commodities, A Bull in China, A Gift to My Children, and Street Smarts Guinness World Record holder for most countries visited in a continuous journey by car, with Paige Parker, 1999 to 2002 Yale (BA, history, cum laude, 1964) and Balliol College, Oxford (BA, PPE, 1966); chairman of Beeland Interests; based in Singapore Biography The Quantum Fund returned roughly 4,200% in its first decade while the S&P moved about 47%. Jim Rogers co-founded that fund with George Soros in 1973, and the partnership remains one of the reference points for how a global macro book can compound when the manager is willing to look beyond the home market. He retired from active fund management at 37 and turned to teaching, writing, and travelling. A guest professorship at Columbia Business School followed, alongside two long-form journeys: a motorcycle trip across six continents in the early 1990s, and a Guinness-recognised car trip with Paige Parker from 1999 to 2002 covering 111 countries and three territories. The travel is not decoration. It is how he tests his macro thesis against border posts, fuel stations, and local exchange rates. In 1998 he built the Rogers International Commodity Index, a broad-basket benchmark still referenced by commodity-tracking products. The index is the structural expression of a view he has held for decades: that real assets, food, energy, metals, and the countries that produce them, are systematically underweight in most portfolios. Since moving from New York to Singapore in 2007, his argument has sharpened around the eastward shift of capital and growth. His books, from Investment Biker to Hot Commodities and Street Smarts, set out the same case in detail. For an investment committee, a board, or a treasury team, the value is access to a thesis that has been held, traded, and revised over fifty years on three continents. Key speaking topics Global macro investing Commodity cycles and the case for real assets Asia, China, and the eastward shift of capital Long-term economic and currency outlook Emerging and frontier markets Investing through political and policy risk Ideal for Institutional investors, asset managers, family offices, and sovereign funds setting long-horizon allocation Banks, treasury teams, and CFO communities exposed to commodity, currency, and rate cycles Boards and executive committees of multinationals with significant Asia or emerging-market exposure Wealth management and private bank client events where the audience expects a contrarian macro voice Audience outcomes A clear, fifty-year-tested thesis on how capital is shifting between West and East and what that means for portfolio construction A working framework for thinking about commodity cycles and where real assets sit in a long-only book Specific country and sector views on China, the broader Asia region, and frontier markets, drawn from direct travel and current allocation Sharper questions to bring back to investment committees and boards about consensus assumptions on the dollar, US equities, and global growth A reading list, anchored on Hot Commodities, Investment Biker, and Street Smarts, that lets attendees keep working with the argument afterwards

Why organisations work with James K. Galbraith A measurement record that competitors cannot match: the University of Texas Inequality Project produces global pay inequality datasets used by researchers and institutions where conventional household surveys and tax data fall short. Hands-on policy experience that maps directly to corporate strategy questions on China, Europe and US industrial policy, including a four-year stint as chief technical adviser on macroeconomic reform to China’s State Planning Commission. Co-winner of the 2014 Leontief Prize alongside Angus Deaton, an award that signals first-rank standing in the economics of inequality and welfare measurement. A clear, unhedged position on where mainstream macroeconomics fails, set out in books published by Oxford University Press, Simon and Schuster, Yale University Press, and University of Chicago Press, which gives audiences something to engage with rather than a survey of consensus views. Direct line of sight into US economic policy debates through regular columns at Project Syndicate, The Nation, and American Affairs, and former service as Executive Director of the Joint Economic Committee of Congress. Biography highlights Lloyd M. Bentsen Jr. Chair in Government/Business Relations, LBJ School of Public Affairs, University of Texas at Austin. Director, University of Texas Inequality Project; Senior Scholar, Levy Economics Institute of Bard College. Co-winner, 2014 Leontief Prize (with Angus Deaton); Veblen-Commons Award, 2020. Elected to the Accademia Nazionale dei Lincei, the Russian Academy of Sciences, and the Lisbon Academy of Sciences. Former Executive Director, Joint Economic Committee of the US Congress; chief technical adviser, macroeconomic reform, China State Planning Commission, 1993 to 1997. Author of Inequality and Instability (Oxford), The End of Normal (Simon and Schuster), Welcome to the Poisoned Chalice (Yale), and Entropy Economics with Jing Chen (Chicago, 2025); The Power to Destroy forthcoming from Chicago in 2026. Biography Most macroeconomic commentary still treats inequality as a side effect of growth. The University of Texas Inequality Project, which Galbraith has directed for over two decades, treats it as a measurable feature of the system itself. Using UNIDO industrial payroll data and Theil decomposition, the project produces a global picture of pay inequality that often diverges from headline tax and survey data, and that has shaped how serious analysts read crises in Europe, the US and China. Galbraith holds the Lloyd M. Bentsen Jr. Chair at the LBJ School of Public Affairs in Austin and is a Senior Scholar at the Levy Economics Institute. The 2014 Leontief Prize, shared with Angus Deaton, and the 2020 Veblen-Commons Award place him in the small group of economists whose work on distribution is recognised across both mainstream and heterodox traditions. Election to the Accademia Nazionale dei Lincei, the Russian Academy of Sciences and the Lisbon Academy of Sciences confirms the international weight of the research. The credentials sit on top of policy experience that few academic economists can claim. Galbraith ran the Joint Economic Committee of the US Congress in the early 1980s and served as chief technical adviser on macroeconomic reform to China’s State Planning Commission from 1993 to 1997. He has written closely on the eurozone crisis, including Welcome to the Poisoned Chalice from Yale University Press, and on the structural drivers of slower US growth in The End of Normal. Recent work pushes harder against the foundations of the discipline. Entropy Economics, co-authored with Jing Chen and published by the University of Chicago Press in 2025, rebuilds value and production theory on physical and biological grounds rather than on equilibrium. The Power to Destroy, due from Chicago in 2026, argues that obsolete economic ideas have shaped a generation of US policy, and that what comes next depends on which ideas governments choose to operate by. Key speaking topics Global inequality and the measurement of distributional change Macroeconomic policy after the end of cheap money US industrial policy and the political economy of decline The eurozone, austerity, and the future of European integration China’s growth model and macroeconomic adjustment Financial instability and the limits of mainstream macroeconomics Post-equilibrium economics and the foundations of value Ideal for Boards and investment committees making capital allocation decisions under macroeconomic and geopolitical uncertainty CFOs, chief economists, and heads of strategy at financial institutions, asset managers, and multinationals with material US, Chinese, or European exposure Policy-facing audiences in central banks, finance ministries, multilateral institutions, and think tanks Senior leadership programmes seeking a substantive economist rather than a forecaster Audience outcomes A clearer view of how inequality and financial instability now shape macroeconomic outcomes, not just social ones A working frame for reading US, European and Chinese policy moves as parts of a single shifting system An informed scepticism toward conventional growth and inflation narratives, grounded in the data Galbraith’s team produces A direct argument about where mainstream economics is failing capital allocators and what alternative frameworks offer Sharper questions to bring back to internal economists, strategy teams and risk committees

Why organisations work with Jacques Attali He built one of the institutions that defined the post-Cold War economic settlement. As founding president of the EBRD, he carries direct experience of structuring capital flows into a continent in political transition, the kind of frame few living economists can offer. A decade as special adviser to President Mitterrand and Sherpa for two G7 summits gives him an inside view of how heads of state actually make decisions under pressure, useful to any board navigating government exposure. His futures work, particularly A Brief History of the Future, sets out a coherent scenario framework (hyperempire, hyperconflict, hyperdemocracy) that boards can use as a long-range planning lens rather than as a single forecast. He has chaired two French government commissions on growth, one for Sarkozy and a positive economy report for Hollande, with proposals that fed directly into national reform agendas. The work is operational, not theoretical. Founder of Action Against Hunger, the EUREKA technology programme and Positive Planet. He has built and run institutions, not only written about them. Biography highlights Founding President, European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, 1991 to 1993. Special adviser to President Francois Mitterrand, 1981 to 1991; G7 Sherpa for the Paris (1982) and Arche de la Defense (1989) summits. Chair, Commission for the Liberation of French Growth (Sarkozy, 2007 to 2008); author of the Positive Economy report (Hollande, 2013). Author of more than 80 books, including Noise: The Political Economy of Music, A Brief History of the Future and Verbatim, in 22 languages. Founder of Action Against Hunger (1979), the EUREKA European technology programme (1984) and Positive Planet (1998). Named one of Foreign Policy magazine’s Top 100 Global Thinkers (2009); graduate of the Ecole Polytechnique, Sciences Po, the Ecole des Mines and ENA; doctorate in economics. Biography The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development opened its doors in London in April 1991 with a mandate no institution had attempted before: channel Western capital into countries leaving state socialism without recreating the conditions that had broken them. Jacques Attali designed it and ran it for its first two years. The institution is still operating, with more than seventy countries of operations and shareholders today, which is the most useful evidence of the architecture he chose. Before the EBRD, ten years inside the Elysee under Francois Mitterrand. Attali was special adviser to the president from 1981 to 1991, sat in the cabinet meetings and the bilateral meetings with foreign heads of state, and served as France’s Sherpa at the G7 summits in Paris in 1982 and at the Arche de la Defense in 1989. The work he has done since, two growth commissions for two French presidents and consulting with governments and large companies through Attali & Associates, is built on that operating exposure to how state and economy actually intersect. The intellectual output runs alongside. Eighty-plus books, translated into twenty-two languages, with Noise: The Political Economy of Music (1977) and A Brief History of the Future (2006) the most widely cited. The futures work matters commercially because it gives boards a framework. The hyperempire, hyperconflict and hyperdemocracy scenarios in A Brief History of the Future are now nearly twenty years old, which is the right test of long-range writing. The frame still holds against the geopolitics of the present decade. He has also built things outside government. Action Against Hunger (1979), still one of the major humanitarian organisations operating in famine zones. The EUREKA technology programme (1984), the European R&D collaboration that, among other outputs, produced the standards work behind the MP3 format. Positive Planet (1998), the microfinance non-profit now active across more than 80 countries. Foreign Policy magazine named him among its Top 100 Global Thinkers in 2009. Key speaking topics Geopolitical risk and the next world order The future of Europe and European competitiveness Long-range scenarios and strategic foresight Global economic transformation The future of finance and microfinance Positive economy and intergenerational responsibility Globalisation and its commercial consequences Ideal for Boards and executive committees of multinationals with material exposure to European and emerging-market policy shifts Chief strategy officers and corporate development teams working on long-range scenario planning Bank and asset management leadership groups exposed to sovereign and geopolitical risk Government and intergovernmental audiences working on growth, innovation and reform agendas Audience outcomes A longer historical frame for the current geopolitical realignment, anchored in firsthand experience of the post-1989 settlement. A working scenario lens, hyperempire, hyperconflict and hyperdemocracy, that senior teams can apply to their own strategy review. A sharper read on Europe’s commercial position relative to the US and China, from someone who has helped design European institutions. A serious account of how heads of state actually reach decisions, useful for executives operating across government interfaces.

Why organisations work with Jürgen Stark He sat on the ECB Governing Council during the eurozone sovereign debt crisis and resigned over the bond-buying programme that followed, giving audiences a first-person account of how the institution actually decides Two terms as Vice President of the Bundesbank and a State Secretary role at the German Federal Ministry of Finance put him inside the negotiations that shaped the Maastricht framework and the Stability and Growth Pact He reads ECB communications as a former author of them, useful for treasurers and CIOs trying to distinguish signalling from substance in central bank language His position is consistently hawkish on inflation and fiscal discipline, a stance organisations seek when they want a counterweight to consensus macro views Biography highlights Member of the Executive Board and Chief Economist of the European Central Bank, 2006 to 2011 Vice President of the Deutsche Bundesbank for two consecutive terms, 1998 to 2006 State Secretary at the German Federal Ministry of Finance and G7/G8 sherpa to Chancellor Helmut Kohl, 1995 to 1998 Doctorate in economics, University of Tübingen; honorary professor at Eberhard Karls University Tübingen Member of the Amundi Global Advisory Board and the Bertelsmann Stiftung Board of Trustees Biography The September 2011 resignation from the European Central Bank is the most economical way to understand Jürgen Stark’s intellectual position. He left the Governing Council three years before the end of his term, in disagreement with the bond purchases of Italian and Spanish sovereign debt that the ECB had begun under its Securities Markets Programme. The institution attributed his departure to personal reasons; the substantive reason was a disagreement about what a central bank’s mandate actually permits. That disagreement is the through-line of his career. Two terms as Vice President of the Deutsche Bundesbank, from 1998 to 2006, placed him at the centre of German monetary policy across the introduction of the euro and the first decade of eurozone operation. Earlier, as State Secretary at the German Federal Ministry of Finance, he served as G7 sherpa to Chancellor Helmut Kohl through the period that produced the Stability and Growth Pact. The doctorate from Tübingen and the honorary professorship that followed are the academic anchors of a career that has otherwise been operational. He continues to write and speak on eurozone fiscal architecture, monetary policy, and the institutional credibility of central banks, and sits on the Amundi Global Advisory Board and the Bertelsmann Stiftung Board of Trustees. What he offers a senior audience is not commentary at one remove from the institutions, but the position of someone who held the chief economist’s seat at the ECB during the crisis that defined the modern eurozone, and resigned from it on principle. Key speaking topics European monetary policy and the ECB mandate Eurozone fiscal architecture and the Stability and Growth Pact Inflation, interest rates, and central bank credibility Sovereign debt and the eurozone sovereign debt crisis Macroeconomic outlook for the euro area Central bank communication and market signalling Ideal for Boards, audit committees, and CFOs setting capital allocation policy under eurozone monetary uncertainty Bank treasurers, asset managers, and institutional investors reading ECB and Bundesbank policy direction Public policy and economic forums where a first-person account of ECB Governing Council decisions adds substance to the conversation Audience outcomes A direct reading of how ECB Governing Council decisions are actually arrived at, from someone who sat on it A position on whether current monetary policy is consistent with the institutional mandate set out at Maastricht A clear macro view from a recognised inflation hawk, useful as a counterweight when internal forecasts cluster on consensus The historical context that explains why eurozone fiscal rules exist in the form they do, and where the live tensions sit today

Why organisations work with Ian Goldin He predicted in The Butterfly Defect (2014) that a pandemic would be the most likely cause of the next global financial shock, six years before COVID. Boards looking for genuine foresight on systemic risk treat that record as evidence, not branding. He forecasts growth prospects across regions, including the US, Europe, China, and Asia, and across sectors such as manufacturing, banking, and AI. Asset allocators, central banks, and multinational boards use that view to stress-test capital and operating decisions over a five to fifteen year horizon. Few speakers carry both operating and academic authority on globalisation: Vice President of the World Bank, Chief Executive of the Development Bank of Southern Africa, and Founding Director of the Oxford Martin School. His work translates directly into capital and policy decisions on geoeconomics, supply chains, urbanisation, and the impact of AI on jobs and development. These are the live questions on most international boards heading into the late 2020s. He moderates and facilitates as well as keynotes. Clients including J.P. Morgan and pharmaceutical and legal industry events have used him to open and connect multi-day programmes, shape agendas, and chair leadership conversations on top of delivering the headline keynote. Biography highlights Vice President of the World Bank (2003-2006) and Director of Development Policy (2001-2003). Chief Executive of the Development Bank of Southern Africa (1996-2001), advising President Nelson Mandela. Founding Director of the Oxford Martin School (2006-2016), establishing 45 research programmes and over 500 affiliated academics. Professor of Globalisation and Development, University of Oxford, and Professorial Fellow at Balliol College. Author of 25 books including The Butterfly Defect (Princeton, 2014), Age of the City (Bloomsbury, 2023, FT Best Books of 2023), and The Shortest History of Migration (Old Street, 2024). Writer and presenter of three BBC documentary series, including After the Crash and The Pandemic that Changed the World, and the BBC Analysis The Death of Globalisation (2023). Biography In 2014, The Butterfly Defect argued that the next major global financial shock was most likely to come from a pandemic running through the connective tissue of globalisation. Six years later, COVID proved the case. The book, written with Mike Mariathasan and published by Princeton, was Ian Goldin’s clearest statement of a thesis he had been building for two decades: globalisation has produced extraordinary gains and a new class of systemic risk that institutions are not yet built to manage. That argument carries weight because of where it comes from. Goldin was Vice President of the World Bank and, before that, Chief Executive of the Development Bank of Southern Africa, where he advised President Nelson Mandela through the early post-apartheid years. He was Principal Economist at the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development and a Programme Director at the OECD in Paris. The institutions sit behind the books. At Oxford, he founded the Oxford Martin School in 2006 and ran it for a decade, building 45 research programmes across more than 100 disciplines. He now leads three Oxford Martin programmes on technological and economic change, the future of work, and the future of development. His books, 25 in total, run from Exceptional People on migration to Age of the City on urban futures, with The Shortest History of Migration arriving in 2024. What boards and governments use him for is harder than topic coverage. It is the ability to connect migration, AI, climate, and supply chain stress into a coherent picture of where capital, talent, and political risk are moving over a five to fifteen year horizon, with the operational scars to know which policy moves actually land. Key speaking topics Economic growth prospects across countries, regions, and sectors Geopolitics, geoeconomics, and the fracturing rules-based order Systemic risk and globalisation AI, jobs, and the future of work The future of cities and urbanisation Long-horizon scenarios and crisis recovery Migration and demographic change Ideal for Boards and executive committees of multinationals navigating geopolitical exposure, supply chain risk, and growth divergence across regions. Government, central bank, and multilateral audiences setting policy on development, AI, and climate. Investor and asset-allocator forums sizing long-horizon risk across regions and sectors. CSOs, heads of strategy, and CFOs responsible for capital decisions under macro and political uncertainty. Audience outcomes A clearer reading of how today’s shocks connect: pandemics, AI, migration, climate, and political fracture as one system. Specific arguments and evidence boards can use when stress-testing strategy against the next decade of global change. A sharper view of how growth prospects diverge across regions and sectors, and what that means for capital allocation, supply chains, and talent strategy. Confidence to challenge assumptions baked into long-range plans, sourced from someone who has run the institutions setting global policy.

Why organisations work with Harold James A historian’s answer to the question leaders actually ask in a crisis: is this 1973, 2008, or something new? The framework from Seven Crashes gives boards a way to test that judgement rather than guess. Institutional access earned as the IMF’s official historian, with a chair at Princeton since 1986. Few commentators on globalization sit this close to the machinery they write about. A published thesis, not a view of the week: supply-driven crises expand markets, demand-driven crises shrink them. It changes how leaders interpret inflation, tariffs, and capital controls. Track record with serious business readers, including the Financial Times Global Business Book Award for the Deutsche Bank history and an FT Best Politics Books selection for The War of Words. Biography highlights Claude and Lore Kelly Professor in European Studies, Princeton University; Professor of History and International Affairs at Princeton’s School of Public and International Affairs. Official historian of the International Monetary Fund. Author of Seven Crashes: The Economic Crises That Shaped Globalization (Yale University Press, 2023) and Making the European Monetary Union (Harvard University Press, 2012). Co-author of the authorised history of Deutsche Bank, winner of the Financial Times Global Business Book Award, 1996. Helmut Schmidt Prize for Economic History (2004); Ludwig Erhard Prize for writing about economics (2005); Ellen McArthur Prize for Economic History, Cambridge. Monthly columnist for Project Syndicate; associate of Princeton’s Bendheim Center for Finance. Biography Seven crashes, from the 1840s depression to Covid-19, do not all mean the same thing. In Seven Crashes (Yale, 2023), Harold James splits them into crises of supply, which tend to expand markets, and crises of demand, which tend to contract them. That distinction is the working tool he brings into boardrooms. The intellectual base is Princeton, where James has held the Claude and Lore Kelly Chair in European Studies since joining the faculty in 1986. He is Professor of History and International Affairs at the School of Public and International Affairs and an associate of the Bendheim Center for Finance. Making the European Monetary Union (Harvard, 2012) remains a standard reference on how the euro was built and what it assumed about member-state behaviour. The institutional access is unusual. James is the official historian of the International Monetary Fund, which gives him a documented inside view of how the post-war financial order actually operated through each shock. His authorised history of Deutsche Bank won the Financial Times Global Business Book Award in 1996. The War of Words, his glossary of globalization, was named to the Financial Times Best Politics Books of 2021. For corporate audiences the output is practical. A monthly Project Syndicate column tests his arguments against the news cycle. The Helmut Schmidt Prize (2004), Ludwig Erhard Prize (2005), and Cambridge’s Ellen McArthur Prize sit behind that record. When a risk committee is trying to decide whether tariffs, sanctions, or a monetary regime change is a shock or a structural shift, his Seven Crashes framework is a clean instrument for forcing that choice. Key speaking topics Globalization cycles and deglobalization Financial crises and crisis response European monetary union and the euro History of central banking Germany and the European economy International monetary and financial architecture Inflation, supply shocks, and political economy Ideal for Bank and asset manager boards setting multi-year macro and rate assumptions CROs, CFOs, and treasury leaders testing crisis playbooks against historical precedent Policy, regulatory, and central bank forums on monetary union and international finance Investor conferences and CEO summits addressing tariffs, sanctions, and the future of trade Audience outcomes A working distinction between supply-driven and demand-driven crises, with historical cases for each A sharper reading of current inflation, tariff, and capital-flow debates against the long record Perspective on the euro and European monetary policy from a historian who has written its formal history An IMF-informed view of how global financial institutions actually respond when the system is under stress

Why organisations work with George Papandreou He ran a G20 economy through the most acute phase of the eurozone crisis. His account of negotiating with the IMF, ECB and European Commission is operational, not theoretical. He has held the two roles that shape Greek and European foreign policy, Prime Minister and Foreign Minister, giving him an unusual horizontal view of how European institutions actually decide. As President of the Socialist International for 16 years, he built and maintained relationships with heads of government across more than a hundred parties worldwide, which informs how he reads political risk outside Europe. His current Council of Europe role as General Rapporteur on Democracy puts him inside the live work on democratic backsliding across 46 member states, not commenting on it from outside. He brings a specific, named thesis on the eurozone, that the architecture is unfinished and that the political legitimacy of monetary union is the real binding constraint, and is willing to argue it on the record. Biography highlights Prime Minister of Greece, October 2009 to November 2011, through the first sovereign debt rescue inside the euro area. Minister of Foreign Affairs of Greece, 1999 to 2004, the period of the Greek-Turkish diplomatic opening. President of the Socialist International, 2006 to 2022; now President Emeritus. General Rapporteur on Democracy, Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe, with PACE adopting his June 2024 report on participatory and deliberative democracy. Fellow, Harvard University’s Center for International Affairs (1992 to 1993) and Institute of Politics (Fall 2012); led the IOP study group “(Re)designing Europe”. Grand Cross decorations from Germany, Spain, Belgium, Portugal, Finland and Sweden; TED Global 2013 speaker on democratic deficit and trust. Biography Greece reached the edge of default inside the euro in 2010. The government that called the IMF was led by George Papandreou, who took office in October 2009 with a public finance hole that nobody on the European side had priced in. The decisions made in the following 24 months, on austerity, on bondholder participation, on whether the eurozone would let a member state fail, shaped a decade of European economic policy. Papandreou had reached that chair through a long political career. He had been Foreign Minister from 1999 to 2004, the period associated with the Greek-Turkish rapprochement, and President of PASOK from 2004. From 2006 to 2022 he was President of the Socialist International, which gave him direct working relationships with heads of government and party leaders across more than a hundred countries. His current work is at the Council of Europe, where he is General Rapporteur on Democracy for the Parliamentary Assembly. In June 2024 PACE adopted his report calling on member states to strengthen participatory and deliberative processes, a substantive technical agenda rather than rhetorical concern about democratic decline. He has paired this with academic work at Harvard, including the Institute of Politics study group “(Re)designing Europe”, and earlier as a Fellow at the Center for International Affairs. For boards and executive audiences, the value is specificity. He can describe how the Eurogroup made decisions in the early hours of a Monday morning, why the political economy of monetary union remains the binding constraint on European integration, and how participatory democratic reforms now under negotiation will change the regulatory environment that companies face across Europe. Key speaking topics The eurozone, sovereign debt and the unfinished architecture of monetary union European political risk and the future of European integration Democratic backsliding and institutional reform in Europe Greece, Turkey and the eastern Mediterranean Crisis leadership at the level of national government Participatory and deliberative democracy Global governance and multilateral cooperation Ideal for Boards and executive committees with significant European exposure assessing political and sovereign risk Heads of public affairs and government relations working on EU institutional reform Investor audiences and capital allocators with euro area sovereign and equity positions Foreign policy and security forums focused on the eastern Mediterranean and Europe’s neighbourhood Audience outcomes A first-hand account of how a sovereign debt rescue inside the euro area was actually negotiated A reading of the political constraints that still sit underneath the euro and what could reopen them A view of which European democracies are most vulnerable to institutional erosion and why A clearer sense of how Council of Europe and EU-level democratic reforms will shape the operating environment A working framework for thinking about the link between economic shock, political legitimacy and policy

Why organisations work with Fraser Nelson Fifteen years editing The Spectator, the longest-running weekly in the English language, gives him a working memory of Westminster that most commentators do not have. He chairs panels and interviews senior figures for a living, which shows up on a corporate stage as pace, real questions, and genuine pushback rather than a scripted Q and A. He has argued the centre-right case on welfare, tax and growth in print and on Channel 4 Dispatches, so audiences that disagree with him still get a coherent argument rather than a talking-points loop. Sits on the board of the Centre for Policy Studies and the advisory board of the Centre for Social Justice, which keeps him close to the policy process leaders are trying to read. Won the British Press Award for Political Journalist of the Year in 2013 and Columnist of the Year at the 2025 British Journalism Awards, a twelve-year span that speaks to durability rather than a moment. Biography highlights Editor of The Spectator, 2009 to 2024. Columnist for The Times; previously a Daily Telegraph columnist for thirteen years. British Press Award, Political Journalist of the Year, 2013. Columnist of the Year, British Journalism Awards, 2025. BSME Editor of the Year (current affairs) in 2013, 2021 and 2023. Board member, Centre for Policy Studies; advisory board, Centre for Social Justice. Presenter of Channel 4 Dispatches documentaries including How The Rich Get Richer (2014) and a 2024 Wincott-Award-winning investigation into Britain’s sickness-benefits system. Biography British political reporting runs on access, and access runs on trust built over years. Fraser Nelson spent fifteen of those years editing The Spectator, from 2009 to 2024, during which the magazine’s subscriptions roughly doubled while the wider weekly market shrank. That job puts an editor on first-name terms with every Prime Minister, Chancellor and opposition leader of the period. Before The Spectator he covered business at The Times, then ran Scottish politics for The Scotsman. He now writes a weekly column for The Times, after thirteen years at the Daily Telegraph. The awards track records the endurance rather than the moment: Political Journalist of the Year at the 2013 British Press Awards, Editors’ Editor of the Year in the same year, BSME current-affairs editor of the year in 2021 and 2023, and Columnist of the Year at the 2025 British Journalism Awards. His policy work sits on the board of the Centre for Policy Studies, where he delivered the 2009 Keith Joseph Lecture, and on the advisory board of the Centre for Social Justice. That work has produced two Channel 4 Dispatches documentaries, including How The Rich Get Richer in 2014 and a 2024 investigation into Britain’s sickness-benefits system that won a Wincott Award. On stage he is most often used as a moderator and interviewer of senior figures, where the job is to pull something useful out of a Chancellor or a Cabinet minister in thirty minutes in front of a corporate audience. For clients who want the content rather than the craft, he delivers a sharp read on UK politics, economic policy, and the welfare reform debate he has argued from the centre-right for two decades. Key speaking topics UK politics and Westminster decision-making British economic policy and the case for reform Welfare, work and the long-term fiscal picture The state of British journalism and media Brexit and its unfinished consequences Panel moderation and on-stage interviews Ideal for Boards and investment committees making UK-exposed capital and hiring decisions Annual conferences that want a credible moderator for a minister, regulator or CEO panel Partner and client dinners where the brief is a half-hour read of the political year Public affairs and policy teams inside UK-regulated sectors briefing senior leadership Audience outcomes A clearer read on which Westminster signals are durable and which are noise A centre-right argument on tax, welfare and growth that a mixed room can engage with A sense of how Treasury, Number 10 and the opposition actually make decisions For moderated sessions, a sharper interview of the senior guest than the room expected

Why organisations work with Eugene Fama He is the architect of the efficient markets hypothesis and co-author of the Fama-French three-factor model, two of the handful of frameworks that genuinely shape how serious institutions set investment policy. His 2013 Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Sciences, shared with Lars Peter Hansen and Robert Shiller, was awarded specifically for empirical analysis of asset prices, the exact question committees face when they debate active versus passive, factor exposures, or long-run return assumptions. He has sat inside the practitioner world for more than four decades as a founding director of Dimensional Fund Advisors, so the perspective he brings to a room has been stress-tested against real portfolios, not just published papers. As chairman of the Center for Research in Security Prices at Chicago Booth, he oversees the dataset that underpins modern empirical finance, which gives his reading of current market behaviour an evidential weight few others can match. Before him, “what works in markets” was largely opinion. After his research, it became a testable claim. Institutions that care about fiduciary defensibility value that shift directly. Biography highlights Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Sciences, 2013, for empirical analysis of asset prices. Robert R. McCormick Distinguished Service Professor of Finance, University of Chicago Booth School of Business. Chairman of the Center for Research in Security Prices (CRSP) at Chicago Booth. Founding director and member of the Investment Research Committee at Dimensional Fund Advisors. Author of more than 100 journal articles and the books “The Theory of Finance” (with Merton Miller), “Foundations of Finance”, and “The Fama Portfolio”. First recipient of the Deutsche Bank Prize in Financial Economics (2005), the Morgan Stanley AFA Award for Excellence in Finance (2007) and the Onassis Prize in Finance (2009). Biography Most of what financial markets look like from a trading floor was, until the 1960s, a matter of opinion. “Efficient Capital Markets: A Review of Theory and Empirical Work”, published in the Journal of Finance in May 1970, reframed the question as an empirical one and forced the industry to answer it with data. Eugene Fama wrote that paper while on the Chicago faculty he has now held for more than five decades. The body of work that followed is the intellectual spine of evidence-based investing. The 1992 paper with Kenneth French, “The Cross-Section of Expected Stock Returns”, established that exposure to market, size and value factors explained the overwhelming share of historical returns in diversified portfolios. That result is why index and factor strategies now dominate institutional allocation, and why active managers are held to a much harder standard than they were a generation ago. The Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences awarded the 2013 Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Sciences jointly to Fama, Lars Peter Hansen and Robert Shiller for their empirical analysis of asset prices. At the University of Chicago Booth School of Business he holds the Robert R. McCormick Distinguished Service Professorship and chairs the Center for Research in Security Prices, the dataset underneath most serious empirical finance. Since 1981 he has served as a founding director of Dimensional Fund Advisors, where the research has been deployed inside real portfolios at institutional scale. For boards and investment committees, the value is specific. He is the person who built the framework they are implicitly using when they debate active fees, factor tilts, or long-horizon assumptions, and he has stayed close enough to practice to speak to those debates with current evidence rather than historical summary. Key speaking topics Market efficiency and the empirical behaviour of asset prices The Fama-French factor models and expected returns Evidence-based and index-driven investment strategy Portfolio construction, diversification and long-horizon risk Active versus passive management under fiduciary constraints Empirical methods in financial economics Ideal for Boards, investment committees and trustees of pensions, endowments and sovereign funds CIOs, CFOs and heads of treasury setting long-horizon capital policy Asset managers, wealth managers and financial services executives refining their investment philosophy Academic and policy audiences engaged with capital markets research Audience outcomes A sharper read on what the empirical record actually says about predicting and beating markets A clearer basis for evaluating active managers, factor strategies and fee structures Language and evidence to defend long-horizon, diversified policy choices to stakeholders Direct engagement with the researcher whose frameworks sit underneath modern portfolio policy Grounded perspective on where current market debates diverge from, or align with, the empirical evidence

Why organisations work with Ernesto Zedillo He has run a major economy through a currency crisis and a peaceful democratic transition, and can speak to macroeconomic decision-making with first-hand authority rather than commentary. He directs Yale’s globalization programme, which gives his reading of trade policy, capital markets and multilateral institutions an analytical base that short-horizon geopolitical speakers cannot match. His service on The Elders, the Group of Thirty and the Global Commission on Drug Policy puts him inside the rooms where international policy is actually debated, not outside them. Twenty years of independent directorships at Citigroup, Alcoa and Procter and Gamble mean he understands how boards translate geopolitical risk into capital allocation, and speaks to corporate audiences in their terms. He is the architect of Progresa, the conditional cash-transfer model later adopted from Brazil to New York City, which gives him a credible track record on social policy design as well as macro policy. Biography highlights President of Mexico, 1994 to 2000, following senior roles as Secretary of Education, Secretary of Economic Programming and the Budget, and Deputy Director of the Central Bank of Mexico. Frederick Iseman ’74 Director of the Program for the Study of Globalization at the Yale Jackson School of Global Affairs, with professorships in International Economics and Politics and at the Yale School of the Environment. Member of The Elders, the Group of Thirty, the Global Commission on Drug Policy, and the Kofi Annan Commission on Elections and Democracy in the Digital Age. Independent Director of Citigroup (since 2010), Alcoa (2002 to present in current form) and Procter and Gamble (2001 to 2019); international advisory board member at BP. Editor of influential volumes including Trade in the 21st Century (2021), The Future of Globalization (Routledge, 2008), Global Warming: Looking Beyond Kyoto (Brookings, 2008) and Reforming the United Nations for Peace and Security (2005); Forbes columnist, 2001 to 2007. Recipient of the Franklin D. Roosevelt Freedom from Fear Award, the Berkeley Medal, Yale’s Wilbur Cross Medal, and honorary degrees from Yale, Harvard and the Hebrew University of Jerusalem, among others. Biography Mexico entered 1995 with a collapsing peso, dollar-denominated short-term debt the government could not roll over, and an incoming president six weeks into office. The policy response shaped how emerging-market crises have been handled since. Ernesto Zedillo led that government, and six years later handed power to an opposition candidate in the country’s first democratic transition of the modern era. That experience sits behind the work he has done at Yale since 2002, where he directs the Program for the Study of Globalization at the Jackson School of Global Affairs. The programme has produced a stream of edited volumes on the live questions in trade, climate policy, UN reform and drug policy, with Zedillo as editor and author. His Forbes column ran for six years. His reading of globalization is not theoretical; it is built on governing through one of the defining episodes of the era and staying close to the policy conversation ever since. What makes him useful to corporate audiences is the combination of that academic base with two decades of independent directorships at Citigroup, Alcoa and Procter and Gamble. He has sat on the audit and risk side of multinational boards through the 2008 crisis, the rise of trade friction with China, and the reorganisation of supply chains. He knows how geopolitical analysis translates, or fails to translate, into capital decisions. He continues to serve on The Elders, the Group of Thirty, and the Rockefeller Foundation’s work on planetary health. He was the architect of Progresa, the Mexican conditional cash-transfer programme that Brazil, Colombia and dozens of other governments later adapted. The range matters because the argument he brings to a board or executive audience is not a topic briefing. It is a view of where the international system is heading from someone who has governed inside it, taught it, and helped steer large companies through it. Key speaking topics Globalization and the future of the international trading system Macroeconomic policy and emerging-market risk Geopolitical shifts and multilateral institutions US-Mexico relations and North American economic integration Climate policy and international cooperation Social policy design and conditional cash-transfer programmes Global governance reform Ideal for Board and C-suite audiences weighing country risk, trade exposure and cross-border capital allocation Financial services, industrial and consumer-goods companies with significant emerging-market or Latin American footprints CEO forums, investor conferences and policy gatherings that need a credible read on globalization and geopolitical risk Public sector and multilateral audiences working on trade policy, development finance or social policy design Audience outcomes A sharper read on what the unwinding of the post-1990 trade order means for corporate strategy A direct account of how a government actually makes decisions during a currency and debt crisis, and what that implies for today’s sovereign risk A realistic view of where multilateral institutions still function and where they do not An informed perspective on US-Mexico economic relations and North American supply chain strategy A grounded framework for thinking about social policy design, drawn from the Progresa experience