Scenario Planning & Strategic Foresight
Speakers who help organisations anticipate uncertainty, stress-test assumptions and plan for multiple futures
Most commentary on the Middle East is authored by people who were never inside the room. The decisions that shape the region, and that now shape energy, trade, migration and terrorism risk for organisations operating far from it, are rarely explained by those who made them. Understanding where the process currently stands, and what realistically might move it, requires someone who negotiated on behalf of a government and has since written about the limits of that process.
Leadership teams know disruption is constant. The harder question is how to make decisions today that hold up against a future they cannot yet see. Most foresight work stalls in the slide deck, never reaching the operating choices about products, talent, and customers where the value actually sits.
Most large organisations are still optimised for the linear era: long planning cycles, hierarchical control, fixed assets, internal R&D. The companies eating their margins run on a different operating logic, smaller headcount, leveraged external resources, data feedback loops, community-driven distribution. The strategic question is not whether to adopt new technology. It is whether the organisation itself is structured to compound on it.
Climate commitments have outpaced the capital and operating decisions meant to deliver them. Boards face a widening gap between net zero language in the annual report and what their procurement, energy and supply teams actually do on Monday morning. Closing that gap requires a different kind of conviction at the top of the house, grounded in evidence of what renewable systems can actually do under pressure.
Most boards now have an AI strategy on paper and almost no honest read on which parts of it are real. The signals coming out of Silicon Valley are loud, contradictory, and shaped by people with money to raise. Leaders need someone who has watched this exact pattern repeat through the PC, the internet, the cloud, and now generative AI, and who will say plainly which bets are durable and which are theatre.
Most large organisations have an innovation function. Few have an innovation discipline. Pilots multiply, vanguard projects get presented at the offsite, and the operating business looks the same a year later. The hard question for the leadership team is no longer whether to innovate; it is what to industrialise, what to retire, and where the next source of growth actually comes from.
The rules governing trade, alliances, and international stability that executives have relied on for decades were designed for a different world. Power is now distributed across dozens of actors – state and non-state – with no single authority able to impose order or enforce commitments. Organisations that continue to plan as though the post-war settlement still holds are carrying strategic risk they cannot see.
Most strategic plans assume next year will look like this year. They are built on linear assumptions about technology that has been advancing exponentially for decades. Investment cycles miss inflection points by years; budgets arrive late to capabilities already commoditising.