Economic Forecasting speakers
Economists and analysts who decode what the data actually means for markets, policy and business
Speakers Associates represents 71 speakers on Economic Forecasting, including Marcelo Carvalho, Dan Walters, Calum Chace, Geoff Cutmore, Horst Köhler, Kwasi Kwarteng, Daniel Lacalle, Blanca Moreno-Dodson, Dominic O'Connell and Paul Johnson.
Capital is being deployed into a world where the old assumptions about growth, globalisation and state policy no longer hold. Boards and investment committees need a framework for distinguishing structural shifts from cyclical noise across emerging and developed economies. The cost of getting this read wrong, on country exposure, currency, or capital allocation, has rarely been higher.
Boards now have to take positions on China, tariffs and currency exposure without a settled framework for how the next decade plays out. The official numbers, the political signalling and the operating reality have stopped lining up. Capital allocation decisions are being made on intuition rather than on a clear read of what is actually moving in the world’s second largest economy.
The forty-year operating model is over. Boards built strategies, supply chains, and growth assumptions around open markets, China access, and a single global capital pool, and that world has fractured into rival blocs with their own rules. Leaders now need a working theory of competitiveness that survives sanctions, industrial policy, and bloc-level alignment, not a set of slides about uncertainty.
Boards with material China exposure are making decisions on incomplete signal. Headline GDP, official statistics and Western press takes pull in different directions, and the consequences land in capex plans, supplier choices and balance sheet provisions. Leadership teams need a reading of China that holds up under scrutiny from a CFO and a risk committee, not a geopolitical narrative.
Most boards overreact to economic news that will not matter in six months, and underreact to the news that will. A Fed decision or a fresh tariff round lands inside the business as margin compression and forecasts that stop working. Leaders need someone who can tell them which indicators will actually move the next two quarters of performance.
Senior teams are making capital, hiring and pricing decisions in an economy that no longer behaves the way their models assume. Most boards do not have an economist in the room, and the ones briefing them often speak a language that does not translate into operational choices. The gap between macro commentary and what to actually do on Monday morning is where decisions stall.
Wealth and income are concentrating in ways that change the political conditions companies operate inside. Tax regimes, capital mobility rules and the social licence for global business are now shaped by inequality data, not just GDP data. Boards that read distribution badly misread the policy and political risk attached to their capital allocation choices.
Boards are making capital decisions in an environment where rate paths, inflation, and currency moves no longer follow the post-2008 script. The cost of getting the macro call wrong has risen, but most organisations do not have a credible internal economist to challenge consensus forecasts. Leadership teams need a translator who can turn central bank signals and economic data into specific implications for pricing, hedging, hiring, and investment.
Boards keep being told the rules of the global economy have changed. They are not always told which rules, in what order, and what to do about it. The gap between everyday political-economic noise and the structural shifts that actually move capital, regulation and competitive position is where senior decisions are now being made badly.
Boards making capital decisions tied to China are working from headlines, not from a clear read of how Beijing’s policy machinery actually moves. The result is exposure managed by sentiment rather than structural understanding. The cost of misreading the relationship between US monetary policy, Chinese reform, and supply chain reality is now sitting on balance sheets.
Boards are making capital and supply-chain decisions on China with information that is mostly second-hand. Western commentary swings between bull and bear without sitting close enough to Beijing’s policy apparatus to read where it is actually heading. The cost of getting that read wrong now shows up in investment committee minutes, not academic papers.